Canadian by-elections, 2019

[DL]

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

[DL]

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

[DL]

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

True, but in 2013 opposition to the carbon tax was not a rightwing "litmus test" the way it now is for conservatives in Canada. So IMHO, the BC Cons were ahead of their time in 2013. This year, the federal Tories will run a hysterical anti-carbon tax campaign across the country that may "prime the pump" for opposition to it in BC. The other thing is that Cummins himself was a very bad campaigner and was very weak. My point was that IF the BC Cons could ever get themselves a competent leader, there would be a lot of potential for them

[DL]

If the PPC does well it can only help Jagmeet Singh. It sounds like they may get votes from socially conservative Chinese voters some of whom would have voted for the the Liberal Richard Lee as well as potential Tory voters. I don't see much (if any) NDP/PPC migration.

[DL]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

This theory has been floated before but I think its just self-serving Liberal spin. It would be one thing if there was some "heir apparent" to Singh waiting in the wings who was fluently bilingual and charismatic and brilliant and all set to sweep the country...but no such person exists (if they did exist they would be leader in the first place). I suppose it is "possible" that if the NDP was forced to get an also-ran from the last contest to step in at the last minute with the party in total disarray that person could turn things around. But its also "possible" than once he gets into the house and has a chance to raise his profile and better introduce himself to Canadians, Singh could turn out to be a far better campaigner than people give him credit for. He certainly wouldsnt be the first opposition party leader who was initially written off by the media who turned out to do well with voters (hello Jean Chretien, Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau etc...)

[DL]

Would the Liberals really help the Greens right now? That sounds a bit too clever for their own good. The Greens seem to have been a big beneficiary of the Liberals drop in the polls, even more than the Conservatives, presumably because they provide an alternative for progressives upset about the pipeline or LavScam who are too rich to vote NDP.

If the Greens win that by-election, it could solidify them as a legitimate progressive alternative to the Liberals and NDP, which in turn could mean a world of hurt for the Liberals in October. Then again, what do I know. The Liberals have made so many mistakes managing LavScam, maybe they will help the Greens

It would not be the first time that the Liberals have outsmarted themselves by trying to promote the Green party thinking it would hurt the NDP only to have the Greens take more votes from the Liberals than anyone else. It happened in 2008 when the Greens scopped up votes from Liberals disgruntled with Dion...also in the last BC election the BC Liberals attempts to promote the Greens under Weaver blew up in their face as the Greens took more votes from the Liberals than they did form the NDP.

This is what the Liberals have been reduced to these day - all tactics and no strategy

[DL]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

I think people in Charlottetown read that Warren Kinsella was going to work for the Greens and they were so disgusted that they voted PC as a protest

[DL]

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

[DL]

The Ontario CCF/NDP has quite a history of being in and out of being official opposition. - they were opposition with 34 seats in 1943, then back into 3rd with 8 seats in 1945, then back to being OO with 21 seats in 1948, then back to just 3 seats in 1951. Then a series of election in the 60s and 70s where the NDP and Ontario Liberals were very close...1971: Libs 21 seats, NDP 19 1975: NDP 38 seats, Liberals 36 seats, 1977: OLP 34 seats, NDP 33 seats. In 1987 the NDP became OO to a majority Liberal government with 19 seats to 16 for the PCs, then they won in 1990, then back to third in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Now OO again with 40 seats to the OLP's derisory 7.

[DL]

Even Doug Ford is more popular than McNeil.

He may be less UNpopular, but neither of them could be described as "popular"

[DL]

In NB former federal and provincial cabinet minister and Saint Croix MLA Greg Thompson passed away. If the Liberals or Greens win the ensuing by-election than the Greens and Liberals would hold a majority of seats in the legislature.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5278834

I suppose anything is possible but that is a pretty conservative area of the province and the Higgs PC government is still in an apparent honeymoon

[DL]

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

Are you sure those byelections wouldnt be superseded by the Sask general election set to take place this coming spring?

[DL]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

Cool!  He lost in a close three-way race:

Michel Trottier, Parti Laval 1501 (35%) +4%
Bruny Surin, Mouvement lavallois 1419 (33%) -12%
Francine Leblanc, Action Laval 1251 (29%) +17%
Gabriel Vellone, Progrès Laval 83 (2%) (new)

A star candidate for the party that has all but 2 seats on city council, and he lost? The current administration must not be popular.

Can someone explain what the four parties in Laval stand for? Is one more progressive than the others?