Rasmussen Daily Tracker (Updated 11/2): Biden +1 (Final)

[neostassenite31]

Fun Fact - Rasmussen was one of the most accurate
pollsters in 2016, their final poll showed Clinton Beating
Trump by 1.7% in the popular vote, actual result was 2.1%

Only actual election results can definitively settle these kinds of arguments it would seem.

[CellarDoor]

Fun Fact - Rasmussen was one of the most accurate
pollsters in 2016, their final poll showed Clinton Beating
Trump by 1.7% in the popular vote, actual result was 2.1%

This is silly.  Everybody points to the last poll conducted by a polling company and compares it to the final result to judge their accuracy.  But this assumes that all pollsters are created equal, and are well-intentioned.  I don't think anyone on this forum believes that.  We have several polling firms with partisan leanings and they are well known.  So what's stopping a partisan pollster from releasing sh**t polls throughout the cycle, only to correct at the end because they know that is what they are judged on?  I believe this happens.  As a result, I just ignore polls with partisan learnings and place an emphasis on polls with good methodology that are highly-rated by 538.  I would also ignore polls with wild swings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden can win with only 279 EC votes, he isnt guaranteed a landslide.  Anyways, they poll AZ, FL, NC, but never poll CO, NV and NM, all 6 states may vote their partisan ways

Given the Change polls, I say that it is gonna be a close race. Pollsters love to poll FL, TX, AZ to make you pay attention, the smaller states, it would be boring

[Skye]

Fun Fact - Rasmussen was one of the most accurate
pollsters in 2016, their final poll showed Clinton Beating
Trump by 1.7% in the popular vote, actual result was 2.1%

This is silly.  Everybody points to the last poll conducted by a polling company and compares it to the final result to judge their accuracy.  But this assumes that all pollsters are created equal, and are well-intentioned.  I don't think anyone on this forum believes that.  We have several polling firms with partisan leanings and they are well known.  So what's stopping a partisan pollster from releasing sh**t polls throughout the cycle, only to correct at the end because they know that is what they are judged on?  I believe this happens.  As a result, I just ignore polls with partisan learnings and place an emphasis on polls with good methodology that are highly-rated by 538.  I would also ignore polls with wild swings.

I dunno, they didn't care much about being judged on their 2018 polls.

[Hammy]

Fun Fact - Rasmussen was one of the most accurate
pollsters in 2016, their final poll showed Clinton Beating
Trump by 1.7% in the popular vote, actual result was 2.1%

Most of their 2016 polls had Trump leading up until the last minute. Their late August poll was R+1.

[VAR]

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 45% (nc)

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep02

[The Other Castro]

9/2 Update:

Biden - 49% (+3)
Trump - 45% (0)

[wbrocks67]

Next week will be back to tied, then Biden +5, then Trump +1.

Ras is trash.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 3% (-3%)
Undecided 3% (-1%)

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1301194969525506048?s=21

[wbrocks67]

Nate's conflating the Economist poll with the Yahoo poll

Also the Yahoo/YouGov poll was a re-poll of same respondents in July

[neostassenite31]

These Rasmussmen numbers (both approval and horse race) seem like they came out of a random number generator and makes absolutely no sense

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen may have a model that suggests an electorate characteristic of 2016, if not 2010 or 2014. At this point, this is the big decision that pollsters must make.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

9/9 update:
Biden: 48 (-1)
Trump 46 (+1)

Mandatory reminder that days before the 2018 midterms Rasmussen had the Republicans winning the GCB.

[Mail-order President]

9/9 update:
Biden: 48 (-1)
Trump 46 (+1)

Mandatory reminder that days before the 2018 midterms Rasmussen had the Republicans winning the GCB.

Another reminder: they were spot-on in 2016

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

9/9 update:
Biden: 48 (-1)
Trump 46 (+1)

Mandatory reminder that days before the 2018 midterms Rasmussen had the Republicans winning the GCB.

Another reminder: they were spot-on in 2016

Final reminder: 2020 is NOT 2016 and Rasmussen is garbage.

[DaleCooper]

Rasmussen polling indicates that Ohio will vote to the left of the nation, enough said.

[The Other Castro]

9/16 Update:

Trump - 47% (+1)
Biden - 46% (-2)

[wbrocks67]

9/16 Update:

Trump - 47% (+1)
Biden - 46% (-2)

we should've known this was coming when they had their Trump approval up to **+6** today.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep16

September 9-10, 13-15
2500 likely voters
MoE: 2%
Changes with September 2-3, 6-8 poll.

Some other candidate 3% (-1)
Undecided 4% (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any bets on how long it will take Trump to tweet this?

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have access to their crosstabs? I bet this has him at like 40% of the black vote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

9/16 Update:

Trump - 47% (+1)
Biden - 46% (-2)

Hahahahahahahahaha

[Person Man]

I guess the economy is rapidly improving and more people are becoming wealthy.

[kireev]

This is the first national poll since February with Trump's lead!

9/16 Update:

Trump - 47% (+1)
Biden - 46% (-2)