PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[wbrocks67]

I'm glad Mastriano actually conceded but let's be real: he did not write that and it was also 5 days late. I'll give him credit for doing the bare minimum but still.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

[wbrocks67]

It's too bad all state senate seats weren't up this time. I think we may have had a chance at that chamber as well?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I always expected Lamb for AG and he seemed the most prime for Shapiro to appoint. AFAIK, Shapiro and Lamb have a good relationship, and he would make the most sense, especially with his background as a prosecutor.

Given that Dems now have the State House too, it makes it easier for someone like Lamb to win a confirmation vote too.

[wbrocks67]

Does the appointed AG need to be approved by the state senate?

I'd have to look into it - For some reason I thought I saw that both have to approve it. So if that's the case, then at least it's halfway there.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I have no problem with this at all but it also just kinda sucks when people who are put in place for these jobs (Leigh Chapman currently) and then are bounced out for literally no reason. I know she was "acting" currently, but no reason why she couldn't have been put up to be official.

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1614651994395779072

[wbrocks67]

https://apnews.com/article/pittsburgh-pennsylvania-20cd143afd7b31e0c2d05cc6a761ae5e

Court greenlights holding Pa. House special elections Feb. 7

Do Republicans have a chance in any of these districts?

Ive heard they might in the 32nd which was rendered vacant due to the passing of Anthony DeLuca from cancer a few weeks before the election.

IIRC all of these are like Biden +40 districts so I don't think so

[wbrocks67]

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/proof-of-id-to-vote-amendment-passes-pennsylvania-senate/

Can the state house block this?   I know it's a moderate D whose elected speaker.  

Almost certainly. Even if it doesn't, Shapiro will obviously veto it. Nothing to worry about.

the governor can't veto an amendment.

Guess that shows why you should read beyond the headline. Regardless, it would still have to be approved in a statewide referendum, so there's an added layer of security beyond the State House.

Yeah, at the very least we now have the State House being able to block the Senate's BS before it even gets a chance to get there.

[wbrocks67]

Lame. The GOP controls all 3 row offices in PA now.

https://www.abc27.com/this-week-in-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-politics/shapiro-to-nominate-michelle-henry-as-attorney-general/

Where does it say that Henry is a Republican? She was Shapiro's deputy so even if she was, I don't really see an issue since she's not some Garrity-type dingbat

[wbrocks67]

Lame. The GOP controls all 3 row offices in PA now.

https://www.abc27.com/this-week-in-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-politics/shapiro-to-nominate-michelle-henry-as-attorney-general/

Where does it say that Henry is a Republican? She was Shapiro's deputy so even if she was, I don't really see an issue since she's not some Garrity-type dingbat

She was a Republican when she served as Bucks Co DA and she helped prosecute Kathleen Kane. Looking into her track record, she doesn't seem all that bad and Shapiro likely wouldn't have nominated her if, like you said, she was a loony. Still though, would've really liked to see Conor Lamb get the gig.

Same, though I imagine he'll likely run for it in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1623741998464221184

[wbrocks67]

Finally went and back and compared Shapiro and Wolf in the counties that Shapiro won (+Lancaster)

Allegheny: Shapiro +39 / Wolf +36
Beaver: Shapiro +3 / Wolf +8
Berks: Shapiro +4 / Wolf +6
Bucks: Shapiro +20 / Wolf +17
Centre: Shapiro +16 / Wolf +17
Chester: Shapiro +26 / Wolf +24
Cumberland: Shapiro +8 / Wolf +3
Dauphin: Shapiro +22 / Wolf +20
Delaware: Shapiro +37 / Wolf +34
Erie: Shapiro +22 / Wolf +21
Lackawanna: Shapiro +24 / Wolf +30
Lancaster: Mastriano +2 / Wagner +3
Lehigh: Shapiro +20 / Wolf +22
Luzerne: Shapiro +1 / Wolf +5
Monroe: Shapiro +10 / Wolf +17
Montgomery: Shapiro +40 / Wolf +36
Northampton: Shapiro +14 / Wolf +16
Philadelphia: Shapiro +73 / Wolf +76

Most of it is what we know - Shapiro doing better in suburbs while the ancestral D strength really showed in Erie, even while Luzerne and Lackawanna were down a bit from 2018. Monroe is pretty striking, that one's a bit surprising to me, given that there's no clear reason why it would've moved that much, as well as Lehigh/Northampton basically giving the same amounts give or take a few points. Philly was the culprit for most of the "underperformance" from going from 17% to 15% wins.

Berks may be the most surprising though. That has been one of the few bright spots for the GOP recently, as it's been trending red significantly. Only down from Wolf by 2% is a really strong showing.