ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[UncleSam]

Approval probably outpaces polling by a fair margin for her, I'd guess she is sitting around 60-65% approval but not cracking 50% in private polls with lots of undecideds (basically winning something like 45-38 or something against Cramer / 44 - 40 against generic R). She's an impressive candidate but ND is gonna be hard to win in no matter how you cut it.

The lack of a quality contender combined with more attention spent on other targets + her genuine moderate streak and willingness to be seen with Trump all help her though and could ensure enough crossover support to win in the end. Dems are really really unpopular in the Dakotas right now however.

[UncleSam]

As of now, probably either 50/50 or 55/45 Cramer. The reality is that Trump has polarized politics everywhere, and he is enormously popular in North Dakota. Dems won't be able to flood the state with volunteers for a midterm the way they can for a special election (same goes with most other elections honestly), and I doubt that Heitkamp can win without a serious assist from Cramer at this point.

With that being said, Cramer seems more gaffe prone than your typical boring conservative politician, and I have no doubt that he will say something that brings Heitkamp into contention. The only question is how bad his gaffes will be and whether they will lift Heitkamp (along with the environment) to another win.

[UncleSam]

Ya it probably would be worse for ND oil interests if Heitkamp is elected, I’ve yet to see a reason why that wouldn’t be the case. Dems in control would mean that there wouldn’t even be a vote on pro-oil interests etc. and no one has raised a credible counter argument to that.

But that’s an extremely subtle point and the reality is most people don’t vote on subtlety. Heitkamp is not going to lose if Cramer solely runs against Schumer, simple as that. And a Dem majority could be better for ND in other ways via better national outcomes, it’s not as though ND is entirely tied to oil interests.

Still watching Dem hacks try and seriously argue that oil interests would be helped by electing a Dem is pretty funny. The environmentalism issue is one that brings Dems a lot of voters throughout the country, just drives away others.

[UncleSam]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

[UncleSam]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

How the h$ll am I King Lear when my guess falls within the moe of two of the three polls out?! Completely ridiculous and annoying!

The problem is that you are generally, from what Ive seen so far, the most hackish in favor of Reps when it comes to predictions. Yes, she is down in the polls, but she was in 2012. The campaign season has barely begun and Cramer has already said a load of stupid stuff. The tariffs are going to continually hammer the state. The state is elastic. Generally, I hate to make predictions this far out because there are too many variables that could swing the election one way or the other. Tossup is appropriate, Strong Lean R, at least this early, is not.

Bagel is definitely no an R hack in terms of elections. Hell, I can’t dver remember him getting a race wrong that he called for Rs.

Also Bagel, I never said you were king lear, that was the other guy. I just said I really highly doubt Heitkamp will lose by 8 - that is a big loss for an incumbent senator. I did agree that she may lose by more than many would like to admit is probably on this forum.

[UncleSam]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).