So SUSA is good at polling the suburbs. The theories as to their GOP lean include that they might have a hard time dealing with same day registration or rural Democrats. Neither of which really apply in the suburbs where people tend to not be too mobile. The MN-5 poll wasn't that bad, but is off by about as much as their statewide polls often are. This seat has a lot of small cities where people are quite mobile as well as rural Democrats.
That said, this doesn't surprise me. The seat is too polarized for someone who voted for ObamaCare, the stimulus and all that to win in a landslide. Demmer isn't a good fit for it or a good candidate either, he's just too extreme similar to the gubernatorial candidate who has a very similar name, but the fact that he's not a total joke kind of guarantees him a floor of what he's getting in this poll. Which isn't really that high still. I still don't see him winning though unless he can make serious inroads into my old home of the Mankato area which Walz pretty thoroughly owns, as well as that area I think of as the "meth and strippers" belt and win historical GOP margins in Rochester. I'd be surprised if Walz loses, but if he did it'd probably be the hardest loss of the night for me (probably even worse than Feingold), since it would put a huge damper on my fondest memory of 2006.
