🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have comparisons to 2004? That might be more apples-to-apples.

[Mike88]

Do you have comparisons to 2004? That might be more apples-to-apples.

Yes, they have that info:

Q1: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

2004: 39% A lot/acceptable; 58% Very little/none

2014: 25% A lot/acceptable; 72% Very little/none

2024: 57% A lot/acceptable; 41% Very little/none

Q2: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

2004: 39% A lot; 33% Considerable; 23% Very little; 4% No change

2014: 41% A lot; 45% Considerable; 11% Very little; 2% No change

2024: 45% A lot; 39% Considerable; 13% Very little; 1% No change

Other comparisons:

Q3: How should the political regime before the 25 April be remembered?

2004: 17% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

2014: 18% A period with more positive things than negative; 28% A period with both positive and negative things; 42% A period with more negative things than positive

2024: 20% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

Q4: How should the 25 April go down in history?

2004: 58% More positive than negative; 23% Both positive and negative; 14% More negative than positive

2014: 58% More positive than negative; 27% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

2024: 56% More positive than negative; 32% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

Q5: The way the transition to democracy was made is a source of pride?

2004: 77% Yes; 14% No

2014: 79% Yes; 12% No

2024: 81% Yes; 13% No

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh okay, so the pro-democracy, pro-Revolution sentiment has actually steadily grown over time. Very good to see.

Seems like most likely the product of generational replacement, with older people nostalgic of the Estado Novo dying out.

[Mike88]

In the meantime...

President Marcelo puts "his foot in his mouth", again: Marcelo labels PM Montenegro as "rural" and "unpredictable", and former PM Costa as "slow" because he's "oriental".

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1783190700471038338

The President of the Republic said that the new Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, has “rural behavior” and that António Costa was “slow” because he is oriental, in a meeting with international journalists at Vila Galé Ópera, in Lisbon.

President Marcelo is being news, again, for "speaking too much". In a foreign press dinner, yesterday 23 April, Marcelo made a series of comments about current affairs in Portugal, that were tapped by someone and have now been leaked to the national press: He said he's no longer speaking to his son after the whole Brazilian twins scandal, and then started comparing Montenegro and Costa. Of Montenegro, he said the PM has "rural behaviors", that he's an "old school politician" with different timings and that he's unpredictable. Costa, on the other hand, according to Marcelo, is much more predictable, but at the same time "slow", probably because he's "oriental", as, according to Marcelo "orientals are slow". Marcelo added that Montenegro will give him "much more work" than Costa, as the latter talked a lot with him, while Montenegro doesn't.

Marcelo being Marcelo... But, com'on, this is becoming embarrassing and sad.

Oh okay, so the pro-democracy, pro-Revolution sentiment has actually steadily grown over time. Very good to see.

Seems like most likely the product of generational replacement, with older people nostalgic of the Estado Novo dying out.

The numbers seem broadly stable, only the satisfaction with democracy has shifted over time, but the environments during these periods may have had an impact: In 2014 there was the bailout, economic problems, high unemployment; In 2004, economic stagnation, a lot of scandals, a sense of being stuck.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

A series of events will, or have, occurer during the day. The media coverage is still focused on Marcelo's controversial comments, on a dinner for foreign press in Portugal, regarding Costa/Montenegro, the Prosecutor, the possibility of financial compensations to former colonies, something an official source of the government labeled as "toxic and inappropriate". The media is criticizing a lot Marcelo for his comments.

The day started with a military parade in Terreiro do Paço square in downtown Lisbon:

The ceremonies then continued in Parliament, with the traditional speeches by political parties and the President of the Republic:

PAN, the first party to speak, remembered the legacy of the 25 April, that during today has a new meaning due to the ongoing war in Europe, climate change and the rise of political forces that jeopardize human rights; CDS criticized Marcelo's idea of compensating former colonies, saying that "history is history" and that "our duty is the future"; Livre leader Rui Tavares talked about his mother's nightmares with Salazar and his uncle arrest by PIDE, saying that "fear supported the regime" until one day that "a man" had a dream that created the most "beautiful revolution" in the 20th century; PCP said that the revolution was a "dream", that constructed the hope for a better life; BE said that the 25 April saved the country and criticized the "Salazar mourners" and "former regime nostalgics"; IL, like CDS, criticized Marcelo's tone regarding the former colonies saying that "history is not debt"; CHEGA, rather Ventura, didn't had a prepared speech and gave an impromptu speech. He said all the freedoms conquered have been lost or been leftdown, talked about the current "rotten regime in Portugal" and also criticized Marcelo for the colonies controversy; PS said that the 25 April is not "only history or memory, but victory" and criticized those who want to cut women rights; The PSD said that parties should "refuse to allow extremists to radicalize society" and that much more than remembering the past, we should "renew a commitment to the future".

Speaker Aguiar-Branco said that if the 25 April had failed, the country would have "a worse tomorrow", and paid homage to the last victims of PIDE during the 25 April 1974, which were assassinated by shots fired from the political police headquarters. President Marcelo said "we must have the humility to always prefer democracy, even imperfect, to dictatorship", and paid an homage to the "fathers of democracy", Soares, Sá Carneiro, Cunhal, Freitas do Amaral and also Ramalho Eanes.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

Alongside the state protocol ceremonies, the traditional march through downtown Lisbon also took place. This year, the turnout appears to have been the highest in recent decades, with people filling the entire Liberty Avenue and the Restauradores Square:

https://twitter.com/sicnoticias/status/1783855757546463298

“It is not possible to give a certain number, but it will most likely be one of the biggest ever”: this is how SIC Notícias reporters described the sea of people who paraded in Lisbon on the 50th anniversary of the 25th of April.

The aerial images captured by SIC Notícias show Avenida da Liberdade completely filled, from the Marquês de Pombal roundabout to Restauradores.

[Mike88]

First poll after the election:

Intercampus poll for CM/Negócios newspapers and CMTV:

Vote share %: (after 7.4% of undecideds are excluded and compared with the March 2024 election results)

28.7% PS (+0.7)
24.3% PSD/CDS/PPM (-4.5)
15.6% CHEGA (-2.5)
  9.7% BE (+5.3)
  7.9% IL (+3.0)
  5.7% Livre (+2.5)
  2.9% PAN (+0.9)
  2.3% CDU (-0.9)
  2.9% Others/Invalid (-4.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 April 2024. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Government says "NO" to President Marcelo on compensations to former colonies:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1784277472923861460

Government responds to Marcelo and says there is no "reparation process" for former colonies

After Marcelo's controversial statements regarding compensations to former colonies, earlier this week, and with the President pressing on the topic today, saying that the country needs to repair the consequences of colonialism, even giving suggestions like debt pardons, cooperation and/or credit lines, the government gave an official response. Luís Montenegro's government said, in a statement, that there are no previous or current plans in this matter, following the line of previous governments, pressing that the Government, and the President of the Republic, have been having "gestures and cooperation programs for the recognition of historical truth with exemption and impartiality". The government also listed a series of projects financed by the Portuguese State in former colonies, like reconstruction of heritage sites.

[CumbrianLefty]

First poll after the election

PS back ahead already?

[Mike88]

First poll after the election

PS back ahead already?

Well, the last few weeks have not been a "success" for the new government, to put it mildly. However, the poll still has both PS and AD within the margin of error, so it's basically a tie, just like the March election results were. Plus, take Portuguese polls with a grain of salt, as in this poll, BE, and also IL, have odd results that don't make sense, but Intercampus has a history of oversampling minor parties, especially BE and IL.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- 17 parties and coalitions are on the ballot for the 9 June 2024 European Parliament elections:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology, European group

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing, none
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing, GUE/NGL
CH - CHEGA, far-right, ID
E - Rise Up, far-right, none
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right, Renew
L - Livre, center-left, Greens/EFA
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, left-wing, none
MPT - Earth Party, center-right, EPP
NC - We, the Citizens, center-right, Renew
ND - New Right, rightwing, none
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left, Greens/EFA
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing, GUE/NGL
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - AD - Democratic Alliance, center-right, EPP
PS - Socialist Party, center-left, S&D
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left, none
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic, none
VP - Volt Portugal, center-left, Volt Europe

- The day was also marked by the long running controversy surrounding the financial situation of the Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting industry in Portugal, as the Government fired the current management, nominated by the PS:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1785058981758840957

The Government will dismiss the board of Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa, which will lead to the departure of the provider and the entire administration.

The AD government has "fired" the current administration of Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting/lottery business, due to the bad financial situation of the institution. The current administration, nominated by the PS and headed by fomer PS Health minister Ana Jorge, already inherited a "ruinous" financial situation with the Santa Casa in near bankruptcy after the administration before Ms. Jorge, invested in betting deals in Brazil and everything went bust, making the institution lose millions and millions of euros. The then administration then entered in "blame war" with the previous PS government, with the then government saying they knew nothing about the deals, while the administration pressed that the government was always informed. Because of the bad situation, Santa Casa was receiving "money injections" by the State to be at float and, now, the Government "fired" the whole administration citting no strategic plans plus cuts in social supports for people in need. The Government will now have to nominate a new administration, but accusations of this being a "political cleansing" are starting.

[Mike88]

Day of tough accusations between PS and PSD:

- On the cabinet briefing, this Thursday afternoon, Finance Minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, accused the former PS government of signing spending bills worth 1 billion euros that were not programmed by the budget:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1786024493439455432

Deficit of 600 million in March: "The budget situation is much worse than the previous Government announced"

The Finance minister said that the previous government, besides leaving some social services in a state of "chaos", he said, also failed to control spending while it was under a caretaker capacity. In fact, the last budget numbers until March 2024, shows that in just 3 months, the surplus has turned into a deficit of around 300 millions euros. Miranda Sarmento pressed that the numbers are worse than what has been announced by the PS and these millions and millions of euros of signed expenses are not within the budget. In response, former Finance minister of the PS, Fernando Medina, accuses Miranda Sarmento of being "unprepared" for the job and of spreading "falsehoods";

- At the same time, the Government faced another "defeat" in Parliament as PS and CHEGA voted to end tolls in several highways:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1786080826997792860

The PS proposal aims to end tolls on the A4 - Transmontana and Túnel do Marão, A13 and A13-1 - Pinhal Interior, A22 - Algarve, A23 - Beira Interior, A24 - Interior Norte, A25 - Beiras Litoral and Alta and A28 - - Minho on the sections between Esposende and Antas and between Neiva and Darque.

It was a very schizophrenic debate, this one of ending/reducing highway tolls. The Government had a proposal to reduce prices in highway tools, while PS had a proposal to end tolls in highways that, prior to 2011, were free. Tolls in these formerly free highways were introduced by PM José Sócrates (PS) in 2011 and in the last 9 years, the PS refused to end tolls in these highways, but now, the PS itself proposed to end them. CHEGA was at first against the idea of ending these tolls, but at the last minute, Ventura changed his mind and decided to vote alongside the PS. The PSD/CDS are pressing more and more on the "negative government coalition" between PS and CHEGA, accusing the PS of blocking the government and of hypocrisy for their change of position. An accusation also supported by all parties, left to right, that despite supporting the PS proposal, the Socialists change in position is embarrassing. The proposal passed with the votes of PS, CHEGA, BE, PCP, Livre and PAN, with only PSD, CDS and IL voting against. This measure is set to cost the State between 157 to 180 million euros;

Well, if nothing changes, I will have no highway tolls next year. But, I will only believe it when I see it.