How long could the GOP hold the senate

[Orser67]

Democrats probably take it back in 2022 if Trump wins re-election, unless Republicans have a really strong 2020 cycle and net a couple seats.

If Trump loses in 2020 but Democrats don't take back the Senate that year, Republicans could hold it for many, many cycles. Let's say Democrats net 1 seat in 2020, lose 2 seats in the 2022 midterms, lose 1 seat in 2024 while winning the presidential election (due to a horrible map), and lose 1 seat in the 2026 midterms. Democrats would then have a shot at finally taking back the Senate in 2028 if the Democratic presidential candidate could win a third term for the party, but it would require a pretty substantial win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020, is one of the first election cycles, where the GOP have most of its incumbents running. The other class of senators, most of the time, its incumbents have been retiring.

However, it has one of the biggest freshman class in Ernst, Tillis, McSally and Gardner up, for reelection. They haven't been tested, except for 2014, when it was a GOP year. 2020, will be a presidential year and the odds are even, once challengers are known.

[Flyersfan232]

2022 at the latest but even then it could be possible under a prefect storm (if trump or a republician is still in the white house) holf it at fifty with a vp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 at the latest but even then it could be possible under a prefect storm (if trump or a republician is still in the white house) holf it at fifty with a vp.

Johnson is clearly retiring and Toomey is gone, there isn't really no pickups for the GOP in either 2020 or 2022 with the exception of AL.

[SnowLabrador]

Toomey's not gone if a Democrat wins in 2020. Don't underestimate him; he was able to win by 1.4% in 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conceivably, for a very long time.

[Xeuma]

With how polarized the country is now, probably up until the next re-alignment with Democrats winning white uneducated voters, as the way the states are drawn benefits that group the most.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have a chance to win the Senate in 2020.

[MarkD]

The question is literally impossible to answer.   Coalitions change pretty quickly sometimes.