Trump mocks "Crazy Bernie" at campaign rally

[junior chįmp]

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This is his 2020 Campaign messaging right here, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Thankfully...national enviorment, approval ratings, and fubdamentals determine elections and none of that retarded tripe he spews out

[junior chįmp]

If this is all he has, he is sooooo screwed.

Of course it's not all he has.  He has the Presidency and the advantages of incumbency that come with it.  

DONALD TRUMP IS THE PRESIDENT!

How does that grab you?  That's an illustration of the advantages of incumbency Trump will have in 2020.  People will look at him as The President, and, at a minimum, will conclude that the guy with the job knows more about doing the job than the folks running for the job.

Even Donald Trump has not lost these advantages.  This is something to think about for those who intend to come after Trump with mere insults and aggrieved coalitions of minorities.  Trump's enemies never seem to figure out how Trump can break every rule of conventional politics and still win.  The smugness of his enemies, the sureness they have that this time it will be different; this time, people will listen to THEM, reminds me of all those Democrats who thought that they FINALLY had Tricky Dick Nixon where they wanted him.

Uh huh, that not how incumbency works. Its not just a magic term that gives candidates the ability to pull a win out of nowhere. Its a double edged sword.

A president with lukewarm or positive approvals, such as Reagan 1984, FDR every single time, or Clinton 1996 will have an advantage of incumbency, as voters like what the president has done and will vote him in again. But if the president has lackluster approvals or is unpopular, such as Hoover or Carter, then the incumbency bites back at them, as voters know he sucks, and wont give him the benefit of the doubt that is given to non-incumbent candidates.

To use 2018 examples, Charlie Baker has incumbency working for him, as voters have gotten to know how good he is, while Scott Walker has the opposite effect, as voters know that he sucks.

Also, this weird idea that Trump is unbeatable and no one can stop him is a poison that could ruin his chances in 2020, as its the same ideas that Democrats were trapped in during 2016. Sure, he won, but it was not grand or spectacular, it was not a Reagan upset, it was a small victory, one that will be almost impossible to replicate.

As I said before, if this is all Trump can muster, he is screwed, because incumbency is working against him, and the coalition he founded in 2016 is quickly dissolving.

It is, indeed, a double-edged, sword, but Trump has been able to consistently beat opponents at the polls despite his low approval ratings.  That's because he has the capacity to get voters to think even less of his opponents.

Trump understands politics better than Atlas Red Avatars.  He understands PEOPLE better than Atlas Red Avatars.  He could write a sequel to Machiavelli's The Prince and it would be successful.  The Democrats going against him will find this out soon enough.  Trump understands power and the use of incumbency and advantageous positioning more than his opponents do.  It's how he got elected in the first place, and it's his game plan for re-election.

The woods are full of Trump Deniers and Self-Deluded Red Atlas Avatars.  It's a myth that Trump knows nothing about politics.  The record shows that he understands politics in ways that few people do.

lol...Trump doesnt understand diddly squat except how to pay for overpriced poontang. The winner of elections is largely determined by factors outside of a candidates control. If anything...all Trump got was the timing right. Thats it.

[junior chįmp]

Overconfidence is going to be the downfall of Trump. The fact that his supporters believe that he is a lock for re-election is a disadvantage. Then again, they are probably counting on getting help stuffing the ballot boxes or making Democratic votes disappear.

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