Mitt Romney vs The President

[TheGlobalizer]

Easy: "Depends".

Probably gets my vote, unless he makes more of an ass of himself than he already has.

Obama is practically unredeemable for me at this point.  He'd have to do some pretty epic libertarian stuff AND balance a budget to get me back into play.  Or the GOP could nominate Bachmann, that'd probably work, too.

[TheGlobalizer]

Assuming unemployment stands within a point of what it is today

I wouldn't write off NM, IA, VA, NC or even OR or PA in such a scenario.

Depends on a strong unity GOP candidate, tho.  A LOT depends on a strong unity GOP candidate.

[TheGlobalizer]

Companies are already sitting on a record level of accrued capital, but are reluctant to invest it when consumer confidence and spending is skittish and weak. The standard GOP nostrum of across the board tax cuts which inordinately favor the wealthy is a bass ackwards way of stimulating consumer spending when the wealthy actually spend a smaller portion of their income, but rather would invest further on the inactive pile of cash businesses are already sitting on.

I agree with this.  The problem is not taxation, it is economic uncertainty, and to a lesser degree, extreme disruption due to regulatory change (either through formal rulemaking or breaking unwritten rules).

Still sticks squarely to Obama, but I agree the issue isn't something solved by the classic GOP tax cut rhetoric.  Businesspeople simply aren't talking about taxes, it's more like: "OMFG the government is nuts, what's next?"

[TheGlobalizer]

My nitpicking differential would be that from what I've read, few to no one is holding off investment over uncertainty re: implementation of health care reform or Dodd-Frank. Being business, they aren't jumping for joy over the regulations, but aren't especially bothered by it outside the few markets specifically affected (and even there the consensus is "we'll deal with the changes just fine").

I've worked in health insurance for over 10 years and that's simply not the case.  Regulatory uncertainty is the #1 fiscal concern in the health insurance industry, and nothing else is close.

The big problem is that regulations keep coming and coming and coming, and some are so cockamamie that they're laughable and have to be rewritten and/or implementation extended into perpetuity.  And that's just at the federal level, many states are completely adrift on healthcare reform.  The regulatory environment is completely batsh**t crazy right now and few companies have the wherewithal to pursue significant expansion.  (I work at one company that does, but it's against significant financial headwinds, on both the cost and revenue sides of the equation.)

[TheGlobalizer]

It's a vicious cycle of both.  Consumer spending is driven by consumer confidence is driven by employment optimism is driven by company hiring activities is driven by profitability is driven by consumer spending...

The problem, at its core, is that the current leadership is letting this continue virtually unabated, and the only solution is to sit in a room with extremely wealthy CEOs planning how to jump-start the economy (translation: pad the bottom line for shareholders).

That's why this sticks to Obama.  He's big government, which doesn't understand a damned thing about business, and when he tries to, he ends up in bed with big labor and/or big business.  That's not economic recovery, that's the oligarchization of America.

[TheGlobalizer]

It's a vicious cycle of both.  Consumer spending is driven by consumer confidence is driven by employment optimism is driven by company hiring activities is driven by profitability is driven by consumer spending...

The problem, at its core, is that the current leadership is letting this continue virtually unabated, and the only solution is to sit in a room with extremely wealthy CEOs planning how to jump-start the economy (translation: pad the bottom line for shareholders).

That's why this sticks to Obama.  He's big government, which doesn't understand a damned thing about business, and when he tries to, he ends up in bed with big labor and/or big business.  That's not economic recovery, that's the oligarchization of America.

Dodd-Frank was fought tooth and nail by Wall Street and the banking industry. The amount spent on lobbying against the bill was unparaelled even by Washington standards. The health care industry did not exactly roll over and play dead for HCR either.

I agree that Obama's efforts in these areas have been less than fully satisfactory, but how often is that due to the wholly oligarchy-friendly GOP fillabustering everything to death? The choice seems to be between a party that will occassionally make baby steps towards breaking down the oligarchic forces you complain of, and another party that wholeheartedly embraces their unchecked expansion. An easy choice in my book.

Disagree with your premises.  Mainstream Dems and mainstream GOP both are in love with and in bed with big business.  Neither are an adequate solution for the use of government power to enrich corporations at the expense of the American people.