Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[danny]

What is New Hope? Sorry for the dumb question I missed it.

The new party founded by Gideon Saar, a prominent Likud member who left the party to run on his own in this election.

[The Houstonian]

What is New Hope? Sorry for the dumb question I missed it.

The new party founded by Gideon Saar, a prominent Likud member who left the party to run on his own in this election.

What were his motives (official and unofficial) for doing this?

[danny]

What were his motives (official and unofficial) for doing this?

Officially because Bibi is focused on his own legal trouble and is at fault for the endless elections.

Unofficially because Saar tried to replace Bibi by running against him in the most recent Likud primaries. Bibi doesn't like internal opposition so he punished him by not giving him any influential role in government.

[The Houstonian]

What were his motives (official and unofficial) for doing this?

Officially because Bibi is focused on his own legal trouble and is at fault for the endless elections.

Unofficially because Saar tried to replace Bibi by running against him in the most recent Likud primaries. Bibi doesn't like internal opposition so he punished him by not giving him any influential role in government.

I see. Thanks for explaining.

[Hnv1]

B&W are going full 'New Labour' campaign claiming they're the new Labour party as they're headed by a dimwit general, some farmers, and class C politicians. I think Peretz is assisting as my 91 years old great aunt who's a Labour member (it takes her time to remember) got a bombardment of text messages telling her to "come home".

Things are slightly awkward for Meretz atm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

B&W are going full 'New Labour' campaign claiming they're the new Labour party as they're headed by a dimwit general, some farmers, and class C politicians. I think Peretz is assisting as my 91 years old great aunt who's a Labour member (it takes her time to remember) got a bombardment of text messages telling her to "come home".

Things are slightly awkward for Meretz atm.

How many votes do B&W stand to lose (and gain) from this gambit?

[Hnv1]

B&W are going full 'New Labour' campaign claiming they're the new Labour party as they're headed by a dimwit general, some farmers, and class C politicians. I think Peretz is assisting as my 91 years old great aunt who's a Labour member (it takes her time to remember) got a bombardment of text messages telling her to "come home".

Things are slightly awkward for Meretz atm.

How many votes do B&W stand to lose (and gain) from this gambit?

In cardinal figures not much, but it could be the tip to take them over the edge to the threshold (and keep Labour on 5-6 seats)

[CumbrianLefty]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

[danny]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

The deadline for mergers has already passed.

[danny]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

Gantz is Blue and White which makes it in most, but not all polls.

[Estrella]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

Gantz is Blue and White which makes it in most, but not all polls.

Pretty crazy to imagine that just a year ago we'd have assumed that "makes it" means comes first ahead of Likud...

[CumbrianLefty]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

The deadline for mergers has already passed.

Yeah, was referring to things in a (slightly) longer term sense.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

Gantz is Blue and White which makes it in most, but not all polls.

Oh, then Lapid left the coalition? Clear.

[Hnv1]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

no. At least not until March 24th, once the lists are submitted they can't be changed until election day. either Meretz runs and passes the threshold or falls below it costing the bloc 2-3 seats. Either way reckless behavior by Horowitz and the Red Guard.

I'm not sure Michaeli would want to merge with them as a single entity. IF the party doesn't pass the threshold I see it just splintering to bits. If it does but really tightly I can see Horowitz and Golan taking whatever's left and joining Labour, with Zandberg\Raz\Laski trying to start the new "Jewish-Arab" party.

[Hnv1]

I would point that it seems that if no government is formed and we go to a fifth election Gantz would still become PM in November. Or at least some scholars think so. needless to say, there's not much case law or comparative law into a rotation duumvirate government...As I read the law, I find problems with this interpretation (and also the desirability of this outcome), but others think it does follow from section 30 of the basic law regarding the continuity of government.

[danny]

Oh, then Lapid left the coalition? Clear.

Lapid has gone back to using the Yesh Atid name.

[jaymichaud]

Oh, then Lapid left the coalition? Clear.

Lapid has gone back to using the Yesh Atid name.

🟠🦍

monke

[America Needs R'hllor]

Pretty big story out today: Likud (the party, not the government) had secret talks with the Palestinian Authority to get Fatah to support them in the election through activism with Israeli Arabs or at least cease support for the Joint List. Likud denied this with one of their usual spins (LAPID LAPID LAPID), but it rings hollow because Deputy Minister Patin Mula, the Likud's representative in these talks, basically confirmed this by saying "there are all kinds of talks" and adding that the "JL doesn't represent the Palestinians, understand from it what you will". This is what happens when your entire backbench is built of idiots.

This *should* dominate headlines, but our sensationalist media would rather focus on Labour's #7 (Arab woman scary!), so I'm barely seeing any fanfare on this. Probably no effect. Anyhow the personality cult around Netanyahu is good at legitimizing this type of bs: "hahah, what a genius! He's destroying the Joint List terrorists and playing with the Palestinians! Bibi king!"

What's the interest for the PA in this? Well, in my opinion:
1. They probably view a Sa'ar-Bennet government as more hawkish than a Likud one. The talks are frozen now, and it might be because they realized a Bibi government will hinge on the Kahanists and hill youth, who will try to push him as much as possible to appartheid.
2. They saw how much Bibi is willing to give Putin & Assad for anything to save him from trial. Why not partake? They could get some vaccines maybe.

[Kingpoleon]

Pretty big story out today: Likud (the party, not the government) had secret talks with the Palestinian Authority to get Fatah to support them in the election through activism with Israeli Arabs or at least cease support for the Joint List. Likud denied this with one of their usual spins (LAPID LAPID LAPID), but it rings hollow because Deputy Minister Patin Mula, the Likud's representative in these talks, basically confirmed this by saying "there are all kinds of talks" and adding that the "JL doesn't represent the Palestinians, understand from it what you will". This is what happens when your entire backbench is built of idiots.

I thought this was an indicator that we already knew Netanyahu and Abbas were talking about the election.

[Hnv1]

Pretty big story out today: Likud (the party, not the government) had secret talks with the Palestinian Authority to get Fatah to support them in the election through activism with Israeli Arabs or at least cease support for the Joint List. Likud denied this with one of their usual spins (LAPID LAPID LAPID), but it rings hollow because Deputy Minister Patin Mula, the Likud's representative in these talks, basically confirmed this by saying "there are all kinds of talks" and adding that the "JL doesn't represent the Palestinians, understand from it what you will". This is what happens when your entire backbench is built of idiots.

I thought this was an indicator that we already knew Netanyahu and Abbas were talking about the election.

Ra’am are closer to Hamas, traditionally the mouth of the PA in Israel was Tibi. Hadash also supported the PA though they side with the left wing factions in the PLO. Balad were traditionally hostile to the PA.
But things are getting weird recently. So who knows, it will not surprise me if Abbas sniffed at the option in case he loses his own elections in May and has Israel intervene.

[Greedo punched first]

What would a Kach (which is banned) majority in the Knesset be like?

[Vosem]

What would a Kach (which is banned) majority in the Knesset be like?

What would a capital-L Libertarian majority in the US Congress be like?

Things would have to change so much for that to be on the table that it's a difficult question to answer. Maybe they've moderated in some way, but maybe the world has gone insane in ways that we can't fathom right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the results page up yet?

[Sestak]

Is the results page up yet?

23.03...