France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

Ditto, same here.

It's not because he's good at meetings and speeches: he constantly pushes his voice too high just to say empty things and to say "en même temps" (remember "p'têt ben qu'oui, p'têt ben qu'non"). He's a bit ridiculous, with always the same gestures with his hands.
(make no mistake: Sarkozy also is imiatating himself constantly and is ridiculous in 2012)
He's ridiculous, but kindly ridiculous and that's also why it works.

It's just that Hollande has taken the right positioning from the beginning: a "normal" candidate for a "normal presidency. Someone who will appease, someone who won't create problems in everyday life (whatever the things he really does after the election... as not really tackling problems will be a bad thing for French people)

He is awaited for, it's just his time. And so everybody sees him as good because people wants to put good feelings on him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, there must be some reasons why the Bourget meeting boosted his candidacy so much (besides the ZOMGZ LEFTY MEDIA CONSPIRACY of course). He is able to make sense while appealing to a broad part of French people. Whether what he says is smart or stupid depends on your positioning, but I don't think you can accuse him of being weak.

[big bad fab]

Let's say he is mostly empty. Another example yesterday and today with the taxes on life insurance contracts.
It's always fine-tuning, with, in many cases, flip-flopping BUT, granted, at a low scale, so not really damageable for him.
Tactically, it's very well done, but, frankly, he is doing almost as few promises as Bayrou
And really not big ones.
It's better in a way, I agree, but we can't say he is leading a grand élan

[Antonio the Sixth]

He would be called a liar (and rightfully so) if he promised more. The only real issue with this election is making sure austerity doesn't mean disbanding the welfare State and screwing the lower/lower-middle classes even more. It's between ideological, neoliberal austerity and pragmatic, justice-oriented austerity. So yeah, not the kind of stake that makes people dream, but an important one enough for people to make the right choice.

[Colbert]

is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

[Antonio the Sixth]

is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

I think it should go to "International general discussion", per the forum's conventions.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

Francois, president! Francois, president!

[RodPresident]

Only way to Hollande lose this thing maybe a late surge by Bayrou who goes to run-off and win with support of right-wingers and anti-establshiment people. If he gets in position to take a place in run-off, Villepin would drop-out only to humillate Sarkozy.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

I'm not giving up yet.

[Colbert]

is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

I think it should go to "International general discussion", per the forum's conventions.

thank you

[Colbert]

it's done :

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150286.0

[Antonio the Sixth]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

No new polls since you posted it on your blog sunday ?

[Earthling]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

Didn't he need a strong surge after his entry announcement a couple weeks ago?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How did you find Sarkozy this evening ? As despicable as his rhetoric is, I have to say he was quite good from a formal point of view. I doubt this will change anything, but I fear that for once he might have scored some points.

[big bad fab]

Wow... thanks, Antonio

But... well, I can't concur... I've just... forgotten to watch
That's the unbelievable truth, I'm not kiddin'

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow... thanks, Antonio

But... well, I can't concur... I've just... forgotten to watch
That's the unbelievable truth, I'm not kiddin'

LOL... I really can't believe this. Shame on you !

And anyways, why thanking me ? Don't get me wrong : his campaigning abilities don't make my opinion of him any higher.

Actually, I was secretly hoping for you to reassure me by answering "no no no no, Antonio, you are wrong, he was awful because..." like you often do.

[big bad fab]

It's the opposite: your acknowledgement of Sarkozy being not so bad was just the only good news of the day

[Tender Branson]

Sarkozy seems to close the gap rather quickly in the 1st round.

CSA and Opinionway have him only 2% behind Hollande now.

Run-off is still 56-44 Hollande, but that can also change quickly.

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy seems to close the gap rather quickly in the 1st round.

CSA and Opinionway have him only 2% behind Hollande now.

Yep, but there are IPSOS, BVA, LH2 that are contrarians. And it's not so clear in daily IFOP.
Go to my blog

[minionofmidas]

*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*

[redcommander]

*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*

Yes let's hope they don't elect Hollande. Why is Sarkozy closing the gap all of the sudden?

[Leftbehind]

Hollande seems pretty good as far as European social democrats go.

[Tender Branson]

*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*

Yes let's hope they don't elect Hollande. Why is Sarkozy closing the gap all of the sudden?

Because he started campaigning ?

It's probably not the 83% tax on millionaires thing, which is quite popular with a majority of the French, from what I've read.

Maybe it has also to do with the fact that the other leftist dude is taking away blue-collar voters from LePen and Sarkozy gets a few of her supporters as well, with his recent anti-immigration stance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).