Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[MaxQue]

I see.

CAQ wants to sacrifice long-term to focus on the short-term.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest: no election before mid-May. We haven't had a summer election since 1966. Duplessis was famous for always picking a summer date, usually in mid-month/week.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494776-pas-delections-avant-la-mi-mai-promet-charest.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

Baloney.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494809-enquete-sur-les-fuites-au-spvm-charest-dit-que-les-medias-nont-rien-a-craindre.php

No one cares.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342448/d-ici-les-prochaines-elections-jean-charest-met-le-paquet-sur-le-plan-nord

[RogueBeaver]

Yet again, Charest insults his electorate's intelligence. At least be up front about one of Quebec politics' biggest and oldest open secrets. Far worse are the Peladeaus, especially now that PK has taken the role of "chief Anglo-baiting RL troll" for himself. Since Charest said "the election won't be called before Apr. 22", he basically confirmed there will be an election this summer...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/charest-denies-wealthy-desmarais-family-has-influenced-government-policy/article2334653/

[RogueBeaver]

Come on guys, push this through before the election.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graeme-hamilton-plan-for-english-immersion-hits-bumps-in-quebec/

[MaxQue]

Come on guys, push this through before the election.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graeme-hamilton-plan-for-english-immersion-hits-bumps-in-quebec/

Please. We already don't have enough English teachers to fill the current jobs in primary. English teahcers are often Anglophones with no degree in education or teachers of another course (often music ou phys. ed.) with a basic knowledge of English.

[RogueBeaver]

Then you improve teacher training. Both public systems desperately need an overhaul, especially the French one given the disparity in results. Marois and Legault coauthored that "reform" (which I escaped by the skin of my teeth) so IMO neither of them have any credibility whatsoever on education. This is a policy conversation I'd like to see in the election, but instead we'll get mudslinging and vague platitudes. Perhaps the trickiest part is addressing the English-French performance disparity, especially in high schools- because the usual suspects on both sides will be itching to start a language war.

[MaxQue]

Oh, I'm for improving teacher training, but that won't have an effect before a couple of years. And it doesn't solve the lack of English teachers.

And the reform. What to say on it? Like you, I escaped it by the skin of my teeth. It has some advantages, but thoe are outweighted by its problems.

The main issue, being, as in much cases in society "nivellement par le bas", or, in English "dumbing down".

[RogueBeaver]

A very low opinion, for similar reasons to yours: dumbing down and occasionally over-complexifying the simple. Math being perhaps the perfect example.

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ denied official party status by the Speaker. IIRC the requirement is 12, like the HoC, but I could be wrong.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342680/assemblee-nationale-la-caq-n-est-pas-reconnue

Citizen ballot initiatives again- I never thought the PQ would be so keen on adopting American ideas about direct democracy (which I personally deplore no matter the ballot question).

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342764/marois-balise-le-recours-aux-referendums-d-initiative-populaire

[RogueBeaver]

Fall is too late and spring is too soon. Summer it is.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/15/01-4496440-un-scrutin-avant-lete-est-peu-probable.php

[MaxQue]

A new Leger poll, a big one.

Not able to localise the general poll, but PQ has a large lead in Saguenay-Lac-St.Jean.
PQ40-CAQ29-Lib19 in Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

[RogueBeaver]

Haven't found it anywhere, but A-T isn't where they need to be leading. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the PQ leading within the MoE overall.

[MaxQue]

Haven't found it anywhere, but A-T isn't where they need to be leading. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the PQ leading within the MoE overall.

I know, but I discovered that in the local newspaper site.

Well, I suppose than it is a Quebecor poll. So, regional results were said to regional newspaper. National results should be out at the TVA 22 heures or tomorrow in the JdM.

[MaxQue]

Found the result in a local article.

Liberals 29.
PQ 29.
CAQ 28.

[MaxQue]

http://lechoabitibien.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/articleImages.asp?abID=226556&imgID=1012291&catmainname=argalerie&catname=F%E9vrier%202012&dt=%20-%20Publi%E9%20le%2002%20f%E9vr.%202012

Detailed for each region. Caution, huge MoEs.

[RogueBeaver]

Huge MoE = garbage. Nonetheless, I'd be curious to see how that translates in seat terms.

[MaxQue]

Huge MoE = garbage. Nonetheless, I'd be curious to see how that translates in seat terms.

Well, Montreal and Quebec should have big enough samples to be relevent. Obviously, the total results are relevant, since their sample is probably over 1000, as each time they do that big poll.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ leads in Quebec, PLQ here in Montreal. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can plug these into their models if they have some time...

[RogueBeaver]

I know everyone will pile on me... but That Place projects a PQ minority. Mainly because urban Quebec is divided and rural Quebec united.

[MaxQue]

I know everyone will pile on me... but That Place projects a PQ minority. Mainly because urban Quebec is divided and rural Quebec united.

The idea of Pauline finally winning is strange, to me.

[lilTommy]

Seineur! (sorry) who would have thought a month ago that the PQ... yes the once thought dead and broken apart party would... could win?!

Well if we look at the regions the PQ leads in 6, PLQ 2 and CAQ 3... it could happen. With FPTP, its a riding by riding game and in MTL where the PLQ leads some ridings will be 4 way battles!
Looks like people interest in the CAQ is starting to drop... anything can happen in an actual campaign so those numbers are still going to go all over the place.

[RogueBeaver]

Not really. CAQ had its honeymoon, and it looks less attractive on the second look. Plus we're due for a change anyways- no incumbency has lasted longer than 9 years since 1960. I always thought they made a mistake in continually passing her over. The "rebellion" was a bunch of malcontents who have personal beefs with her taking advantage of weak poll numbers. Now they'll all lose their seats...

Tommy: CAQ was a trend, not the first Quebec trend either federally or provincially to fade. They're a one-man band without original policies or even noteworthy candidates.

Two Montreal seats worth watching: L'Assomption (McKay v. Legault) and Gouin (Francoise David is running).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

J'adore le Quebec.

[lilTommy]

Not really. CAQ had its honeymoon, and it looks less attractive on the second look. Plus we're due for a change anyways- no incumbency has lasted longer than 9 years since 1960. I always thought they made a mistake in continually passing her over. The "rebellion" was a bunch of malcontents who have personal beefs with her taking advantage of weak poll numbers. Now they'll all lose their seats...

Tommy: CAQ was a trend, not the first Quebec trend either federally or provincially to fade. They're a one-man band without original policies or even noteworthy candidates.

Two Montreal seats worth watching: L'Assomption (McKay v. Legault) and Gouin (Francoise David is running).

So those of you closer to the ground, see CAQ losing all 9 MNAs? I agree both L'Assomption and Gouin will be interesting... If CAQ wins it HAS to be here... but McKay is a big name. If QS can't win in Gouin, they probably can't win anywhere else.
Oh Isn't L'Assomption going to be dramatically altered with redistribution? From what i see the riding is going to be slip; south Repentigny and Saint-Sulpice will be in the new riding of Repentigny... and a new, larger L'Assomption which takes in towns/areas from Rousseau Masson and Terrbonne ridings. Is McKay running in Repentigny or L'Assomption? his call since hes the current member