Can the Obama GOTV machine be repeated for Democrats in 2016?

[milhouse24]

Do you think the GOTV operations for the Obama campaign can be repeated with a different Democrat in 2016? 

The computer system seems easy to replicate.

What will be difficult to replicate is the enthusiasm of volunteers if it is an un-exciting candidate. 

If there is no enthusiasm, then less people will want to volunteer, canvas, phone bank, or ride-share.

[milhouse24]

How much enthusiasm was there in 2012?  It seemed a lot like a normal election year as far as excitement was concerned.  I wouldn't be surprised if what we saw in 2012 is the new normal.

We'll get more information to see if this is right in the 2013 gubernatorial elections, in the 2014 Senate elections, and in the Democratic Primaries. 

Instead of relying on traditional regular voters, Obama had to actually rely on new young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters.  I'm sure many people in 2012 were first time voters; just like in 2008. 

The older, over 30 voters, trended toward republican. 

It was Obama's personality that convinced young people and black people to register to vote. 

I'm not so sure that another Democrat can get the same high participation rates as Obama. 

[milhouse24]

How much enthusiasm was there in 2012?  It seemed a lot like a normal election year as far as excitement was concerned.  I wouldn't be surprised if what we saw in 2012 is the new normal.

We'll get more information to see if this is right in the 2013 gubernatorial elections, in the 2014 Senate elections, and in the Democratic Primaries. 

Instead of relying on traditional regular voters, Obama had to actually rely on new young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters.  I'm sure many people in 2012 were first time voters; just like in 2008. 

The older, over 30 voters, trended toward republican. 

It was Obama's personality that convinced young people and black people to register to vote. 

I'm not so sure that another Democrat can get the same high participation rates as Obama. 

Generally, there is a pattern in which once someone votes once, they are much more likely to vote in the future.  Obama has opened his party up to a large pool of potential voters.

But the pattern is not true for Registering First Time voters.  Obama has relied exclusively on registering First Time voters in 2012 and 2008. 

Once voters hit the age of 30, they start trending more Republican, so for the "Obama model" to be successful, the Dems need to keep up the Under-30 youth vote for future elections. 

One of Obama's assets is that he is 45-ish and can relate to college kids. 

Other politicians over 55 can't excite college students.

Also, Black voters won't be as excited voted for a white woman, so that will depress Black turnout.

[milhouse24]

A good preview of this will be in the 2013 offyear elections and of course, the 2014 elections. 

Midterms have almost no bearing.  We all saw how Democrats got massacred in 2010, and they didn't utilize Obama's GOTV machine.  Its a personality based voter outreach.  The 2010 massacre gave the GOP hope that the Obama machine was done for, and that voter levels would be similar to 2004 than 2008. 

Its really amazing that no other candidate with the unemployment rate and the massive switch of the white vote, could come back to win the election, with first time voters.  The Obama campaign of 2012 was a miracle in so many ways. 

2014 would have to be a really good year for the economy for the Democrats to win elections.

[milhouse24]

Keep in mind, Milhouse, that the GOTV machine probably doesn't need to be quite as good in 2016 as in 2012, because the white vote will have fallen that much more - most say down to about 70%.  So, the wind is at the back of the machine as it were.

But that also means the Dem nominee would need to be a "Multi-Racial" candidate to maximize the turnout of both Black voters and Hispanic voters; to defeat the Republican white voters.  A Dem White woman or man won't be able to get high turnout from black or hispanic voters - what were John Kerry's total number of minority voters?  A Dem Black candidate might not appeal to Hispanic voters.  A Dem Latino candidate might not appeal to Black voters.  I'm not convinced Hillary Clinton would be able to get anywhere close to Obama's vote totals in 2012.