Keep in mind, Milhouse, that the GOTV machine probably doesn't need to be quite as good in 2016 as in 2012, because the white vote will have fallen that much more - most say down to about 70%. So, the wind is at the back of the machine as it were.
But that also means the Dem nominee would need to be a "Multi-Racial" candidate to maximize the turnout of both Black voters and Hispanic voters; to defeat the Republican white voters. A Dem White woman or man won't be able to get high turnout from black or hispanic voters - what were John Kerry's total number of minority voters? A Dem Black candidate might not appeal to Hispanic voters. A Dem Latino candidate might not appeal to Black voters. I'm not convinced Hillary Clinton would be able to get anywhere close to Obama's vote totals in 2012.
You miss the point - there will be fewer whites and more Hispanics, blacks, and Asians in 2016, so lower turnout (unless much lower) would still end up with a Dem win.
Use this neat interactive tool to figure it out:
http://news.yahoo.com/interactive-political-demographics-melting-pot-12493498.htmlI reset white turnout a few points higher, black turnout several points lower, and Hispanic turnout a couple of points lower than in 2012, didn't change the vote percentages at all (though it is very conceivable that a white Democrat, such as Hilary, could improve on Obama's 40% by a point or two) and it still showed 51% Dem to 49% GOP in 2016.
