Much as many republicans would disagree with me this is the case…
I'm one who would not generally disagree on your Joe-Public quotes. It matches plenty of the thoughts I hear around my neighborhood.
I won't back you on your Senate sentiments however.
And we could quibble over the map, but there are enough tossups to let it go for June.
So this election is a “Liked” (with reservations) President running for re-election in what should be a fairly open race against a Democratic Candidate who overall is probably weaker than him. I would say that Bush is set to win by default through Kerry just nether being a strong candidate or the right candidate to challenge him but that would be to underrate Bush and that has been a big mistake for many in he past 
. But that is basically the case, against a strong, charismatic Democrat Bush would be behind by a noticeable margin in the polls and imho would probably lose against Kerry I think that in the end he will win. And Bush winning might not even be a terrible thing just so long as the Democrats retake the senate 
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...this is how the race looks to me at the moment... although I think Kerry could (With Iraq still deteriorating and with Edwards as VP) pull of wins in both WI and PA and perhaps even WV but OBP i doubt it...
