Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?

Not really. The newest polls are from September 2017. So more than 6 months old.

Still if you want them here they are, alongside even more outdated polls:

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Val

[Former President tack50]

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

[Mike88]

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

I don't think he can flee until his ruling is final. It's like if you are suspected of a crime, you are presented to a judged and then you wait the ruling in freedom. If you flee, that's proof of something.

Now, if he is extradite by corruption charges, wouldn't that be bad news for secessionists? I mean, they have already the Pujol case and if Puigdemont is trialed by, only, corruption wouldn't that drain out the idea that he was a political prisoner?

[Former President tack50]

Sure, he legally can't flee but there's nothing technically stopping him other than the fact that most countries would inmediately arrest him anyways.

As for corruption, the alleged "corruption" is the fact that he used public money to pay for the referendum. So no, secessionists won't care. I think the official charge is public fund misuse

[Mike88]

Castilla-la-Mancha poll from SYM Consulting:

[Former President tack50]

Metroscopia strikes again! 3 way tie for last place!



Further details (vote transfers, evolution, approval ratings, some extra questions)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/06/media/1523031908_175487.html

[Harlow]

We're not too far off from a poll with C's and Podemos first and second.

[Former President tack50]

Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

It's a Podemos internal but whatever



So, PSOE wins and can easily repeat the PSOE-Compromís-UP deal, while a PSOE-Cs deal falls short of a majority, and same with PP-Cs.

[TheSaint250]

Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

Thanks

[Former President tack50]

2 more new polls. First, the national one

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es



And now a regional poll for Madrid, just while PP and regional President Cristina Cifuentes are in the middle of the masters degree scandal

It's a Cs internal but still noteworthy



Cs wins and gets to choose between PP and PSOE as their partner. IU makes a comeback and gets above the threshold. And a left wing government falls short.

And another internal for regional elections in Madrid, this time from PSOE

PSOE: 27.5%
Cs: 26.8%
PP: 26.3%
Podemos: 14.5%
IU: 2.5%

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3310846/0/encuesta-interna-psoe-ganaria-madrid-pp-pierde-cinco-puntos-caso-cifuentes/

Cs ends up as kingmaker.

[Former President tack50]

We are getting some very weird candidates for the 2019 local elections.

First of all, PSOE asked the current mayor of Madrid, Manuela Carmena (Podemos) to be their candidate! Granted, Carmena is a moderate in Podemos and doesn't have great relations with the rest of the party but still, at this point PSOE is basically recognizing they don't have a good candidate in Madrid! They claim that it was an informal offer to recognize that she is doing a great job but still.

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.

[Former President tack50]

Also, Cs almost breaking 30% in one poll, while PSOE overtakes PP! (granted this is a good pollster for Cs, and to a lesser extent PSOE, but still)

Simple lógica poll

[swl]

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.

In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...

[Former President tack50]

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.

In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...

Nope, no such restriction in Spain. There are very few examples but they do exist. A Belgian became mayor of a small Andalusian town in 2015 for example

https://www.elplural.com/2015/06/28/un-guiri-alcalde-de-un-pueblo-andaluz-por-ciudadanos

And as of 2009 there were 2 foreign mayors (1 French, one Belgian) and 85 foreign councillors. (Brits being a large plurality)

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/08/07/espana/1249643521.html

Granted I don't think Valls would become mayor even if Cs got a great result (most likely some sort of secessionists+Podemos coalition would win)

But yeah, if he did win and become mayor it would be huge news for the EU

[Former President tack50]

And we've got some new polls.

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya (national poll)





Celeste-Tel, regional elections in Madrid



Top 3 all within the margin of error, Podemos not too far behind, particularly if IU joins them.

SyM consulting, regional elections in Valencia



TSA for Canarias 7, regional elections in the Canary Islands



As expected, most likely the La Gomera regionalist ASG will act as kingmaker.

[Mike88]

Cristina Cifuentes resigns as President of the Community of Madrid:

Cristina Cifuentes has resigned as President of the Community of Madrid not because of her master degree fiasco, but because of a video of her shoplifting in a supermarket in 2011.

[Former President tack50]

#metoo has apparently arrived to Spain!

A bit of an introduction, a recient quite polemic gang rape case has caused a lot of protests since many people think the punishment was too lenient (9 years in jail, with one of the 3 judgest actually voting to clear them of all charges!)

In fact, they were cleared of actual rape, only found guilty of "sexual abuse" which carries a lesser punishment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/protests-spain-five-men-cleared-of-teenagers-gang-rape-pamplona

This caused no es abuso, es violación (it's not abuse, it's rape), no is no and similar stuff to trend. And now #cuéntalo (tell it) is trending on twitter

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20180428/443093670148/cuentalo-la-manada-protesta-mujeres-twitter.html

I thought the feminist strikes and the like were a 1 off thing, but I guess they are here to stay.

[Former President tack50]

PSOE internal for the Canary Islands regional elections



If this is a PSOE internal it's an absolute disaster for them. Also for CC and really good for Cs! In fact it's very weird for an internal to have the party that asked for it so low and still being published.

Hell, the Canarias7 public poll was actually a lot more PSOE friendly than their own internals!

Metroscopia-El Pais for Madrid regional elections



Futher information: https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/26/media/1524763200_673592.html

Vote transfers and approval ratings.

Great news for Cs and terrible news for PP. Keep in mind this was a poll done before Cifuentes resigned so it's already outdated but whatever.

Also, first time I've seen Vox mentioned on this pollster. Assuming they held 100% of their 2015 vote they'd get 2.6% of the vote. Well below the 5% threshold for the regional elections, but in a general election it would be close (they'd need 3%

[Mike88]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

[Former President tack50]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

[Former President tack50]

Also, El País published an interesting study on the amount of women voters by party. Apparently Cs (which previously had a majority women electorate) is now the most masculine party!

Here are their results

Vote by party, for both men and women



% of the party voters that are men/women



So, by party, it seems that Cs and Podemos have somehow reversed. Cs had a majority female electorate and Podemos had a very masculinzed electorate. PP has always had an almost perfect 50-50 split. And PSOE is apparently the party of women, with 56% of PSOE voters being women!

Also, women make a larger percentage of undecideds and of people who don't plan on voting. Which is especially interesting since women actually did turn out more than men in 2016 (the electorate was 52% women in the 2015 election, not sure about 2016)

[Mike88]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.

[Zinneke]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.

I honestly think C's would be shooting themselves in the foot getting Valls in because the issues Barcelona is facing as a city (housing, overpopulation, tourism mismanagement, pollution) don't fit his profile and he even said he was considering it to refight the referendum at a local level. Even Garcia Albiol called this out as unwise and he's hardly an psephological authority on bringing national issues into local debates.

On the other hand if I'm anti-Colau and anti-seperatist, I can see how C's would be able to garner votes based on a solid no-nonsense platform of 'the PSOE governed for years, the nationalists can't be trusted, and Colau is incompetent.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

[Zinneke]

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

If you have google translate on hand or can read spanish :

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180104/erc-superaria-a-colau-en-las-municipales-segun-el-barometro-de-barcelona-6531160

Looks like she would keep the initial majority she formed.

This actually seems to contradict what I said :



My understanding from Catalan friends though is that she is seen as somewhat of a dud. Remember all those Guardian/Vice articles about the Superilles in Poblenou that were going to make a hip district? The locals rebelled against that. Has the tourism issue improved? Ask any Catalan and they say it has not, because the only solution is having border control, so why protest anyway. Has the bloated housing market been cracked down upon? She might have tackled AirBnB but ultimately the Airbnb issue is hiding a bigger problem in major European cities, which is that housing in a European inner city/capital is seen as a safe investment, be it for people who just move to the periphery of the city, or Chinese businessmen/mafia wanting to hide their lunch money from the CPC (which is a real problem in Catalonia). And it is not seen as actual housing, for people to live in. In reality, the referendum was probably a welcome distraction.

 And yeah, Colau probably conducted herself better than anybody during the crisis, but it has probably polarised Catalan society enough for an ERC swing in places like Barceloneta (which we talked about previously). I just didnt think it would be replicated in local elections.  like tack says though we can't be sure until the campaign where people like Valls could be seriously exposed to real problems.