2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

Way to early to pop the corks on this one.

Republicans typically under poll in Iowa, even the Selzer poll underestimates by a little.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election

Hence why I said way too early to be opening the the celebratory round of drinks.

do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

Actually, I think Grassley will end up somewhere around 60% yes, maybe a hair under.

Iowa has been brutal for the Democrats ever since 2013, and it is a very nativist state too.

There have been times before when popular Representative runs for Senate and then gets destroyed, because once again, "Cyclical politics is a thing".

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO

My name is not "Rs", my name is Yankee, North Carolina Yankee. 

To your point, IA is not MN or WI also. IA and OH are there own class between IN/MO and WI/MI/PA. I have never said otherwise and you would do well to NOT put words of other people into my mouth ever again.

Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

I like ElectionGuy just fine, but I am NC Yankee.

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy

Meaningless historical anecdote 15151512521

Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE

What does this have to do with what we are talking about?
.

Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

"Portman is not Voinovich, there is no way he can win Ohio in Bush's recession. He was Bush's trade representative. He is going to get destroyed".

Again what does this have to do with Iowa.

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

What is this, what even is this?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Grassley is not winning by 60% Finks not Patty Judge,

Winning with at our just below 60% is not "winning by 60%". Winning by 60% means winning 80%-20%.

I have seen popular incumbent Representatives lose by that amount in Presidential years in a state voting for their own party by double digits.

Here we have a Representative who lost reelection and is now running against Senate institution in a state that is only getting more Republican and in a midterm of a President from her same party.

Yea 57% to 60% is a reasonable estimate for Grassley.

Biden Approvals aren't gonna be 31% in 2022 COVID cases are leaving ,, Biden Approvals will go up

Even if it goes up 10% from there, Iowa still going to be a disaster for the Democrats.

He beat Patty Judge in 2016 by 60% IA and OH weren't contested by Hillary she foregone IA and OH in lieu of FL with Murphy, she spent most of her time in FL

And you think that is enough to make a Democratic Administrations midterm better for the Democrats then 2016?

Biden only has to be at 50% or higher by Election to avoid Losing the H and it's 14 mnths

Biden at 50% nationally implies 42% or so in Iowa (actually it is worse than that considering Trump lost the PV by four, so 38%). If Grassley wins 58-42% that counts as just a hair under 60% as I said above. I also think Grassley will still have some residual crossover, even if minuscule compared to the past.