Who demographic change/population growth favors by state:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically, I considered 2 questions in creating an algorithm for trying to analyze this:

1. What communities are seeing growth?
2. How have those communities been swinging?

These were the results:



Basically, blue states have growth/demographic change that is benefitting Ds, while red states have demographic change benefitting Rs.

When I say benefit, I mean absolute benefit. For instance, in R+30 Alabama, demographic change should narrow the state's partisanship while padding Rs raw vote margin, which is why it is red on the map.

There are a few states I think got a bit messed up by weird data; for instance, UT has had pretty wild set of election data this past decade which probably makes the output that the state has way stronger R demographic change than it actually does.

I'm also skeptical of WV; I think what happened was the algorithm saw so many deep red rural communities in the state shrinking and assumed that was a net benefit to Ds, plus Biden did pretty solid in the few growing parts of the state (exurban DC and Morgantown).

Also I used 2010 and 2020 census data, and ik there were a few areas where the 2020 census results seemed iffy so also take that with a grain of salt. Also doesn't take into account the full affects of COVID

2012 election data would've been rlly nice to have.

Thoughts?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are the sub breakdowns of what communities are growing and how those communities are swinging respectively. As you can see, the swing map def gives vibe of the 2016-2020 election swings, whereas the growth map is a bit more complex.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here are the sub breakdowns of what communities are growing and how those communities are swinging respectively. As you can see, the swing map def gives vibe of the 2016-2020 election swings, whereas the growth map is a bit more complex.

Hmm, which communities did you find to be the fastest growing in California? Interesting that those experienced a mild R swing from 2016-2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are the sub breakdowns of what communities are growing and how those communities are swinging respectively. As you can see, the swing map def gives vibe of the 2016-2020 election swings, whereas the growth map is a bit more complex.

Hmm, which communities did you find to be the fastest growing in California? Interesting that those experienced a mild R swing from 2016-2020.

The swing is weighted by growth, so the swings of communities that barely grew or even shrunk are still weighted, it's just the communities that grew the most are weighted much much more heavily.

The most notable collection of fast growing areas were mostly in suburban/exurban SoCal in parts of Orange, Riverside, and San Diego Counties. Most of these areas shifted left but in some cases by relatively underwhelming amounts. Then you have a good amount of fast growing Hispanic parts of the Central Valley which have shifted right. Sacramento suburbs have also grown quite a bit, but many of these communities have actually been swinging right, or at least not hard left.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So bleak for Republicans

[ProgressiveModerate]

So bleak for Republicans

Generally generational turnover and demographic change favors Dems; that's something any reasonable person can see. However, there are other factors working strongly in Republicans favor that should keep them viable, such as more people flipping from D-->R than the opposite.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I mean, WV could just as easily be a matter of there not being much lower for Democrats to fall. It did literally swing and trend Democratic in 2020.