2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe D (3): OR, HI, RI
Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, AZ
Likely R (4): MA, SC, TN, KS
Safe R (8): ID, WY, SD, NE, TX, AR, AL, OK

Note: Old Ratings. See update on Page 3 2.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. I'm convinced that top-two is going to jinx the CA Democrats at some point. I mean, their bench is like 40 or 50 candidates strong. National Dems were able to hold it to only 2 major democrats for the senate race this year, but I feel like at some point, the dam is going to break. The party will try to go "Okay, it's time for you two to run, then it's time for you two to run, and so on....", but at some point, the politicians will be so eager for a promotion that they will just ignore the national party's pleadings, and 5, 6, 7 Dems will jump in the same race. And Rs might just find the right two candidates.

The way I look at a Safe Category is that I should never have to move a race out of it. I don't use a rothenberg-esque "Safe as of Today" category. I use a "Completely Safe" Category.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tom wolf is ery unpopular. Why is everyone marking him safe?

I marked him as Lean, so did progress96. Lean /=/ Safe.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all the ratings for 2018 races now being present in my ratings document, I have a few changes to announce.

Old Ratings:

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New Ratings:

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (4): CA, NY, CT, RI
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (5) : GA, MD, VT, AZ, KS
Likely R (5): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

Changes:

RI: Safe D to Likely D
SD: Safe R to Likely R
OK: Safe R to Likely R
KS: Likely R to Lean R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving AZ from Lean R to Likely R due to the weak democratic field:

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (4): CA, NY, CT, RI
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Toss Ups
1. Maine: Toss up for now-- if Collins throws her hat in AND wins the GOP primary, I think this becomes safe R. If not, I think this becomes a Tilt/ Lean D race unless we see a redux of 2010/2014 with a really strong left leaning independent in the race.

2. Michigan: I think that the GOP got lucky and has a strong candidate in AG Bill Schuette, however, I do think Snyder and Trump's unpopularity in the state, along with the flint crisis will help the Dems here. Gretchen Whitmer is a formidable candidate and I think this race becomes lean D with her. If Geoffrey Fieger or Abdul El-Sayed get the Dem nod, it becomes a toss up/lean R race.

3. Wisconsin: For a long time I had the rated as lean/likely R and just moved it to toss up/tilt R. I think there is a very good chance Scott Walker wins re-election, however, the Democrats have formidable candidates in Tony Evers, the Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout. Given Trump's current approval ratings and polls recently showing Walker underwater, I moved this to toss up.

4. Florida: As with MI, I think the GOP got lucky here with a very strong candidate in Adam Putnam. The Democrats also have some candidates who have potential to be strong candidates, but are relatively unproven, including Tallahassee mayor,  Andrew Gillum, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, and (who I like to call the wild card) John Morgan, a personal injury lawyer and medical marijuana advocate. I think the rating of this race will largely depend on the outcome of the Dem primary and how the Democrat defines themselves and the race. This is one I could see slipping easily away from the Dems as a result of a divided primary, poor state party structure, and a unified/strong GOP.

5. Alaska: I will be honest that I don't know much about this race, but it seems that Walker has middling approvals and an unstable base of supporters, thus my rating as toss up. We will see if Walker is able to pull a redux of 2014.

6. Nevada: It seems that this is another race where the GOP likely got a top recruit in Adam Laxalt, the Nevada Attorney General. On the Dem side, the likely nominee is Steve Sisolak, Chair of the Clark County Commission, also a decent recruit. Although Nevada seems to have taken a turn to the left lately, it still has shown a strong propensity to elect the GOP state wide (i.e. Heller, Sandoval). Given Laxalt's name ID and position, I certainly would not count him out. Sisolak, however, has proven to be a formidable fundraiser, and given the leftward tilt of the state as of recent and an expensive Senate race that the Dem's are sure to be heavily investing in, I think he has a good chance to reclaim the governor's mansion for the Dems.

Other Notable Races
1. Minnesota: Likely D-- This is a race that the Dem's have gotten lucky in as they have not just 1, but multiple top tier candidates including Congressman Tim Walz, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and potentially Lori Swanson, the Minnesota Attorney General. All three of these candidates are top tier. Out of these, Tim Walz would likely be the strongest, having represented a rural part of the state (MN-01), having a miliatary background, and having earned the endorsement of multiple key figures in MN politics including Walter Mondale, R.T. Rybak, Colin Peterson, and the son of Paul Wellstone. However, Lori Swanson is well regarded and a very popular AG who would be a strong nominee and Chris Coleman has proven to be a popular and effective mayor in St. Paul.  On the other hand the GOP hasn't been able to come up with a top tier candidate and seems to have settled on Jeff Johnson, the Hennepin County Commissioner and losing nominee for governor in 2014. Now, there obviously is still time for someone else to declare (i.e. Tim Pawlenty or his wife) on the GOP side who could change the dynamics of this race.

2. Illinois: Tilt D for now-- this is a race that has been painful to watch as a Democrat. It seems as though every Dem in the primary has either shot themselves in the foot or stuck their foot in their mouth with the exception of Pritzker, who is far from the perfect candidate. All that being said, Rauner is still a weak incumbent in a state with a massive budget crisis (whether that's his fault or not is an issue separate from electoral discussions). In addition, Pritzker will be able to match Rauner dollar for dollar in the general election. Given these factors, plus the solid blue status if IL in a Trump midterm, I have this race as tilt D.

3. Colorado: Although I don't think that Representative Jared Polis is the strongest candidate that the Dems could find for this race, I do think that he is a formidable candidate, is able to self fund, and proven campaigner/fundraiser. On the GOP side no top-tier candidates have emerged yet. Given this and the leftward trend of CO politics recently, I have this as tilt D for now, which could obviously change if we see a new GOP candidate emerge.

More Updates To Come

On Colorado, Walker Stapleton is in the race and is a very solid recruit. I still believe you can justify a Tilt or Lean D rating based on other factors, but if the only reason you have it at Tilt or Lean D is "who does the gop have?", then you should change it given Stapleton's presence in the race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First change in a while: IL moves from Lean D to Likely D

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (5): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1)
Lean D (6): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Due to the weak Republican field, Pennsylvania moves from Lean D to Likely D.


Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (5): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How exactly are CA and NY “Likely” D, Wulfric?

With CA I'm extremely cautious because of the top-two, and with NY, Republicans actually have a notable candidate in State Senate Deputy Majority Leader John A. DeFransico.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the aftermath of the court disaster, Walker is favored to lose.

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (6): NV, IA, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on recent polling data, NH moves from Toss-Up to Lean R, and MD moves from Lean R to Likely R. This is not to suggest that Dems should triage either race, it merely indicates that they need to step up their game.

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (5): NV, IA, OH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, VT, KS, NH
Likely R (7): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the withdrawal of DeFransico from the race, NY moves from Likely D to Safe D.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (5): NV, IA, OH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, VT, KS, NH
Likely R (7): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

LOL'd at Kucinich being called a "socialist by admission" as if other people give a sh**t, and Ohio being moved to Lean R based on dubious polling. Also, California is Safe D, we all know Newsom will make the top-two at this point.

But what do I expect from the guy who called two primaries wrong.

The standard I set back when I started my ratings for this cycle was that I wouldn't rate CA Safe D until the primary had occurred, and that's not something I feel I can go back on.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

A Republican poll came out today showing almost a 15 point swing to the Dem in Ohio and you move it to Lean R? Lol

1. Cordray was never really down by 20 points, quit kidding yourself.
2. The same poll shows Brown up by 14, which seems to strike me as around Brown's ceiling, so basically, if even when Brown is performing at his best, Cordray isn't (yet) ahead, it's not really a Toss-Up contest anymore.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Following Newsom's qualification for the GE, California moves from Likely D to Safe D. Also, as Dems chose a poor candidate, Iowa moves from Toss-Up to Lean R.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (4): CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (2): NV, FL
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, IA, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two rating changes, unrelated to the last set of primaries: New Mexico moves from Lean D to Likely D thanks to the latest polling. Arizona moves from Likely R to Lean R due to Ducey's persistently low approval ratings. The race still seems to be a low priority for democratic strategists and Ducey is still undoubtedly the favorite, but I don't think he quite merits the Likely R rating anymore.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (4): CT, RI, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+3), ME (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (2): NV, FL
Lean R (8) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

After what was probably the best primary outcome Minnesota Democrats could have hoped for, including Pawlenty somehow losing the republican primary, the race moves from Lean D to Likely D.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA
Lean D (4): CO, MI (D+3), ME (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (2): NV, FL
Lean R (8) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

Sununu hasn't trailed in a single poll..

your right, instead, he has declined 15 points from June to August. And, unlike in MA, he doesnt have the popularity to survive. Also, the D turnout was really crazy in NH.

Plus, NH has a well known pro-woman bias.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska moves from Lean R to Likely R.  Also, can someone please poll Colorado and Vermont?

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (6): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA
Likely R (7): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans have locked up TN.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA
Likely R (6): SC, SD, OK, MD, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK moves back to Lean R with Walker out.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (6): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, SD, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm still skeptical that SD actually the votes to go D, but I don't feel like I can say that with 85% certainty anymore, so SD moves from Likely R to Lean R.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, SD, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN