COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1274096165470994438?s=20

I would certainly agree that the pandemic has been astoundingly mismanaged by Trump and the whole administration.  But that graph is pretty misleading.  The CFR in most major European counties is much higher than in the US, and the death rate has fallen at a mostly similar rate in the US as in Europe, just about three weeks later.

[icemanj]

Meanwhile, Brazil reported 55k new cases today.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest U.S. vs. European case and death graphs

The next few weeks will be a pretty definite test for whether deaths are indeed a lagging indicator of confirmed infections.  Cases in the US have been exploding the last few days, while deaths continue their remarkably steady decline of around 15% per week.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Latest U.S. vs. European case and death graphs

The next few weeks will be a pretty definite test for whether deaths are indeed a lagging indicator of confirmed infections.  Cases in the US have been exploding the last few days, while deaths continue their remarkably steady decline of around 15% per week.

There's been a lot of discussion about whether the continued decline in deaths with an uptick in cases is a result of younger people being infected more (as they're probably social distancing and isolating less) or whether it's because deaths are a lagging indicator, but I don't think people have talked much about another option- the virus could have mutated to become somewhat less deadly.  In fact, many pandemic viruses eventually mutate into becoming less deadly.  Most famously, the Spanish Flu virus very rapidly mutated into a less deadly form in November of 1918.  I am not saying that this is what's happening, but I think it's at least a question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meanwhile, Brazil reported 55k new cases today.

That's appalling.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Meanwhile, Brazil reported 55k new cases today.

That's appalling.

If you think that’s bad, look at Chile.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is wintertime in South America.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These awful numbers for the sunbelt states near the summer solstice kind of kills the hope that summer is automatically better.

To me, it suggests an alternative hypothesis: cases spike at times of the year when people stay indoors. Cases disappear at times of the year when people are happy to be outdoors. Those are different times in different places.

Cases are increasing in the bay area, which tends to have people happy to be outdoors this time of year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As if we needed more proof that Republicans are a bunch of racist assholes.

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1274101954889814029

[Hammy]

DeSantis blaming immigrants for disease, Ohio blaming blacks, and DeBlasio blaming the Jews. It's like we've gone back to the 1930s.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So much for reopening the economy, I guess.

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1274035635364540418

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's been a lot of discussion that the U.S. death rate has been lower because a younger population is being infected now.  In support of that idea: the median age of cases in Florida last week was 37, compared to the 60s early in the outbreak.

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/florida-gov-ron-desantis-to-give-coronavirus-update-at-florida-international-university

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There's been a lot of discussion that the U.S. death rate has been lower because a younger population is being infected now.  In support of that idea: the median age of cases in Florida last week was 37, compared to the 60s early in the outbreak.

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/florida-gov-ron-desantis-to-give-coronavirus-update-at-florida-international-university

That could also be a function of testing capacity.  When tests aren't available to just anyone, most younger people are not going to have pressing enough symptoms to justify getting a test.  That's going to make the median age skew older than it really is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1274355082402955269

I just don't know what to say.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1274355082402955269

I just don't know what to say.

And people think Trump can't win re-election because of the bad job he's done/doing. Look at that crowd.

[politicallefty]

Apple is closing stores in FL, NC, SC, and AZ.

Apple reopened dozens of stores across the United States last month, after shutting them because of the coronavirus. Now, it is closing some of them again.

The company will shutter 11 stores across Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Arizona this weekend, it said Friday.

"Due to current COVID-19 conditions in some of the communities we serve, we are temporarily closing stores in these areas," Apple (AAPL) said in a statement. "We take this step with an abundance of caution as we closely monitor the situation and we look forward to having our teams and customers back as soon as possible."

All four states have seen large spikes in cases in recent days, with experts saying Florida in particular could emerge as a new epicenter.

Failure in leadership and a complete mismanagement of this crisis is going to get us the worst of both worlds, a high death toll and a crippled economy. Too many states reopened too early and too many states aren't taking this serious enough. New York was a model for the country in how to respond and thankfully New Yorkers are apparently rational and sane. As this has moved into red America, it's apparent how many people in this country want to stomp their feet like petulant children because they can't always get their way and face some minor inconveniences. A lot of people in this country really need to grow the f-ck up. Is it really that hard to wear a mask and socially distance as much as possible? We really are so far removed from the Greatest Generation and the ideals of shared sacrifice for the greater good.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Florida’s death rate has shown no signs of increasing.  It is still below the national average:the US has had about 2 daily deaths per million over the last, compared to about 1.5 in Florida.  New Jersey still gets 6 daily deaths per million after three months of shut-down, and I don’t see many people criticizing them.

Clearly, Florida’s policies have lead to an increase in cases.  But more new cases are -good- if they aren’t accompanied by more deaths.  It might mean testing has increased.  It might mean treatment has improved.  It might mean the virus has mutated and become less lethal (and likely also more contagious).  It might mean a younger population is getting infected, providing more of an immunity buffer against infections among vulnerable people.  If might mean all of these things.  It’s hard to break down these factors, but they are all positives. 

I know people are going to come in here and say that increased deaths will inevitably follow.  But there’s just been no evidence for that in the US or anywhere in the world that has had a major outbreak.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1274355082402955269

I just don't know what to say.

JFC.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here’s an interesting article about the spike in new cases in Florida among children:
https://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/2020/06/15/young-floridians-test-positive-coronavirus-almost-twice-rate/3190098001/

Some notable stats:
- Children are almost twice as likely to test positive for covid as adults (9.2% vs. 5%)
- Children who test positive are more than five times less likely to be hospitalized than adults
- More than 3,000 children have tested positive in FL so far, but zero have died

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Six staffers at the planned OK Trump rally have tested positive for COVID-19.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Florida’s death rate has shown no signs of increasing.  It is still below the national average:the US has had about 2 daily deaths per million over the last, compared to about 1.5 in Florida.  New Jersey still gets 6 daily deaths per million after three months of shut-down, and I don’t see many people criticizing them.

Clearly, Florida’s policies have lead to an increase in cases.  But more new cases are -good- if they aren’t accompanied by more deaths.  It might mean testing has increased.  It might mean treatment has improved.  It might mean the virus has mutated and become less lethal (and likely also more contagious).  It might mean a younger population is getting infected, providing more of an immunity buffer against infections among vulnerable people.  If might mean all of these things.  It’s hard to break down these factors, but they are all positives. 

I know people are going to come in here and say that increased deaths will inevitably follow.  But there’s just been no evidence for that in the US or anywhere in the world that has had a major outbreak.

"There is no evidence that more cases results in more deaths" is some incredible galaxy-brain logic, and it somehow isn't even the most ridiculous claim in here (that honor goes to "more new cases is good").

When I said there is no evidence that “increased deaths will inevitably follow“, I might have been a little unclear.

I meant there is no evidence that if a spike in deaths occurs, it will lag by some significant time the spike in cases.  There many are locations where we saw spikes in cases and deaths more of less simultanously.  But very few where we’ve seen a spike in cases followed by a spike in deaths several weeks later.

[emailking]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Yes.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370528.msg7405122#msg7405122

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Yes.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370528.msg7405122#msg7405122

Again, I can't speak for everybody, but it definitely put me out of commission for about three weeks -- and I can confidently call myself an athletic-type with no *prior conditions*

2000 calories or less a day while watching the sodium and carbs, nearly-vegetarian (I do love chicken, though), and I run five miles five times a week.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are people still seriously citing case numbers?

Yes.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370528.msg7405122#msg7405122

Again, I can't speak for everybody, but it definitely put me out of commission for about three weeks -- and I can confidently call myself an athletic-type with no *prior conditions*

2000 calories or less a day while watching the sodium and carbs, nearly-vegetarian (I do love chicken, though), and I run five miles five times a week.  

IIRC you had a good idea of who infected you.  What ever happened to them (i.e. did they get symptoms as well)?

[jimrtex]

Here’s an interesting article about the spike in new cases in Florida among children:
https://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/2020/06/15/young-floridians-test-positive-coronavirus-almost-twice-rate/3190098001/

Some notable stats:
- Children are almost twice as likely to test positive for covid as adults (9.2% vs. 5%)
- Children who test positive are more than five times less likely to be hospitalized than adults
- More than 3,000 children have tested positive in FL so far, but zero have died

There could be a sampling bias.

Almost all children under the age of 18 live with a parent or a guardian. If an adult in a household is infected, every other person is going to be tested. They likely did not wear masks in the house or practice social distancing. They might even had physical contact. Billy skins his knee and is wailing. Mom goes over and gives him an elbow bump?