Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

...PPP has polled South Carolina this weekend. I expect to see no real change in South Carolina. Here are the results:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_111715.pdf

Carson 51, Clinton 39
Bush 47, Clinton 41
Trump 47, Clinton 42
Rubio 47, Clinton 42
Huckabee 47, Clinton 43
Fiorina 45, Clinton 41
Cruz 46, Clinton 43
Kasich 43, Clinton 41

Closer, much closer, then the joke polls (EPIC/MRI in Michigan and SurveyUSA in Minnesota would indicate unless Hillary Clinton is going to win like Jimmy Carter down to the states won.

Barack Obama lost South Carolina by 9% in 2008 and still won.  If Hillary Clinton loses South Carolina by less than 14% she wins the national election.

Trump slips in his binary matchup with Clinton...


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Unless this is entirely a poll of likely primary voters, this is really bad news for Democrats.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/18/fox-news-poll-trump-sanders-lead-respective-primaries-in-new-hampshire/

Clinton 47
Trump 40

Clinton 44
Cruz 41

Clinton 44
Christie 43

Clinton 43
Fiorina 43

Carson 45
Clinton 43

Bush 45
Clinton 42

Kasich 43
Clinton 40

Rubio 47
Clinton 40

Colorado, Quinnipiac:

Colorado voters back any leading Republican contender over Clinton by wide margins:

    Rubio over Clinton 52 - 36 percent;
    Carson leads Clinton 52 - 38 percent;
    Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent;
    Trump beats Clinton 48 - 37 percent.

Sanders runs better than Clinton in general election matchups;

    Rubio over Sanders 52 - 39 percent;
    Carson beats Sanders 52 - 40 percent;
    Cruz tops Sanders 49 - 42 percent;
    Trump gets 46 percent to Sanders' 44 percent.

Q no longer takes Jeb Bush seriously.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2303


Nevada, Ralston Reports



Trump 44
Clinton 41

Clinton 42
Rubio 42

Clinton 44
Carson 41

This poll has allowed the GOP to take the lead in the US Election Atlas EC Total

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-trump-clinton-way-ahead-nevada

Iowa, Morning Call

Carson (R): 46%
Clinton (D): 40%

Clinton (D): 41%
Trump (R): 40%

Rubio (R): 43%
Clinton (D): 40%

Bush (R): 41%
Clinton (D): 40%

http://www.csrxp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Iowa-Poll.pdf

Florida Atlantic University, Economics department

(caveat on decimals)

Full #s:

50.2% Carson (+9.7)
40.5% Clinton

49.2% Trump (+8.7)
40.5% Clinton

50.2% Rubio (+7.2)
43.0% Clinton

44.4% Bush (+4.6)
39.8% Clinton

47.9% Cruz (+3.0)
44.9% Clinton

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/download.aspx?id=6196


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Recent polls by Survey USA in Minnesota are probably right -- now. But for the wrong reasons!

Should this trend hold, then the Republican juggernaut is on the roll.

Here's my assessment: terrorist attacks of any kind give Republicans the opportunity for bluster. They can offer solutions that satisfy mass anger even though those solutions would make things worse. This is so even if the terrorist attack occurs outside the United States. The atrocities in France and the (apparent) terror bombing of a Russian jetliner suggest that the world is a much more dangerous place in which the toughest responses become more attractive. Fear brings out the worst in people, and it works invariably against liberalism.

As we may recall, the incompetent administration of George W. Bush found its popularity skyrocketing after terrorist assaults, accusations (usually unfounded) of Saddam Hussein being in possession of WMDs, or the ratcheting of fear of terrorist attacks. Not until failures became evident  did things catch up with him... but fear of international menaces tends to drive people to the Right.

President Obama does his usual measured response. He suggests that America allow in more refugees and lets the French do the military attacks on the monsters of ISIS. Then he might let the Russians take potshots at ISIS in revenge of a  terrorist-bombed jetliner. Republican-friendly pundits on FoX News assail the President for failing to blame "Radical Islam", and (mostly) Republican pols call for denying refugees from Syria any opportunity to relocate to the United States. The measured response has typically worked better over the long run.

Radical Islam is not the problem. Moammar Qaddafi was a radical on many things, but his version of Islam was anything but radical. Saddam Hussein allowed arguably the most secularized of Muslim societies, and his Shiite opponents were much more radical in their Islam.

President Obama is right about Bashir Assad; cruel, corrupt, and inept as he is, and as much of the problem in Syria, he must go. Assad is creating the environment in which ISIS can flourish.

Criminality? Brutality? Tyranny? Islam is the least objectionable feature of ISIS. Indeed, its worst enemies in the field are Muslims -- Shiites in Iraq and Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. Of course, criminality, brutality, and tyranny marked the nominally-Christian Nazis and Fascists and the thug leadership of (largely a Buddhist-Shinto fusion) WWII-era Japan.

[pbrower2a]

You are forgetting the MN SUSA poll. Please include it.

"Right for the wrong reason" after the fact is still wrong. There will be plenty of reputable pollsters who show Democrats in deep trouble for a month or so.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: Roanoke University:

Clinton 44, Carson 44
Clinton 45, Rubio 41
Clinton 50, Trump 36
Clinton 46, Bush 39
Clinton 46, Fiorina 39
Clinton 47, Cruz 39

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Nov2015.Consumer%20Sentiment%20and%20Politics%20Topline.pdf

It could be Virginia. Due to the proximity of DC and the large number of well-educated government employees, the Virginia electorate might be more savvy and less likely to swing on an event that does not involve the credibility of a politician. Hillary Clinton has recovered from the investigation of the server 'scandal' and of the death of an American diplomat in Benghazi, which may not have been reflected in the most recent polls.

Ben Carson still ties with Hillary Clinton here, but this shows a loss of the Carson lead.

"As Virginia goes, so goes America"? No, not yet. Virginia could be the tipping point state this time, which defines who wins. But Virginia has been 'right' for only four Presidential elections. No better than Colorado or Florida, but better than all but two states.

So how far do the states go in being right on the Presidential elections?

One only -- none.
Two -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Three -- IA NM
Four (2000) -- CO FL VA
Seven (1980) -- NV
Eleven (1964) -- OH

Bold indicates hyper-partisan D states.

So what will it be if a Republican wins decisively?

Two -- IN NC
Three (your pick) ME NH OR PA and all that voted 'wrong' in 2012
Four -- IA, maybe
Five -- CO FL VA
Eight -- NV, maybe
Twelve -- OH

If a Democrat barely wins
One -- unlikely
Three -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Four -- IA maybe, NM
Five -- CO maybe, VA
Eight -- NV
Twelve -- OH maybe

If a Democrat wins decisively, but well short of a landslide (Obama 2012)

One -- unlikely, NC and NE-02 most likely
Three -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Four -- IA
Five -- CO, FL maybe, VA
Eight -- NV
Twelve -- OH  

A firm Democratic win (Obama 2000, Clinton 1992/1996) -- best left to your imagination.



 

If I am picking any state to decide the 2016 election it is Virginia. Watch Virginia.





Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin.

Hillary Clinton loses once-large leads in Wisconsin, most likely because the boost that Republicans get from any fear of terror that terrorist crimes in Paris created. Republicans have been pushing fear of terrorism lately. Whether such backfires is to be seen.


Clinton 44 -- Carson 45
Clinton 44 -- Rubio 45
Clinton 48 -- Trump 37

In other news, Wisconsin voters will likely dump Senator Ron Johnson for former Senator Russ Feingold; they more trust Democrats than Republicans in the State legislature.






Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I'm ready to dump Mike Huckabee for Ted Cruz. Are you?

[pbrower2a]

I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.

[pbrower2a]

I'm ready to dump Mike Huckabee for Ted Cruz. Are you?

Sounds good to me.

Here' what I have (based upon a map that I had a month ago with more recent polls added):

VA Clinton 47, Cruz 39 (Roanoake University)
NH Clinton 44 Cruz 41 (FoX News)
CO Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent (Quinnipiac)
FL  47.9% Cruz (+3.0) 44.9% Clinton Florida Atlantic University Economics Department
SC Cruz 46, Clinton 43 (PPP)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

[pbrower2a]

Exit Huckabee, enter Cruz.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.

By what polling firm?  And was it by phone or internet?  And if by phone, was it a live interviewer or a robo-call?

Phone with a live interviewer. The pollster never identified himself.

[pbrower2a]

Utah, Dan Jones. I have no idea of how valid this pollster is, but I have no cause to disbelieve that Hillary Clinton would be clobbered by any Republican -- except Donald Trump -- in Utah.  Trump would fare unusually badly (if not badly enough to lose) by GOP standards in Utah because of his involvement in businesses that do not uphold Mormon values.

56-24 Carson/Clinton
48-21 Rubio/Clinton
48-23 Bush/Clinton
37-26 Trump/Clinton

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7798-poll-shows-clinton-would-lose-handily-to-gop-candidates-in-utah


It fills some gaps as I would expect it to fill those gaps. No Cruz or Fiorina, though! 
...I need a category for someone ahead in Utah (or any state) with less than 40% of the likely vote, as Trump appears here. I will put it in the "tie" category.  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Nov. 23-30:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

Clinton 46%
Carson 43%

Clinton 47%
Trump 41%

Clinton 45%
Rubio 44%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 42%

Sanders 47%
Carson 41%

Sanders 49%
Trump 41%

Sanders 44%
Rubio 43%

Sanders 49%
Cruz 39%

...This nationwide poll is inconsistent with recent Q polls of swing states. But just about every pollster showed Republican candidates  for President surging just after the terrorist attacks in Paris. Statistical blips related to events are as real and genuine as the events themselves.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_120815.pdf

Clinton 43, Bush 43
Clinton 43, Cruz 47
Clinton 43, Trump 47
Clinton 42, Fiorina 44
Clinton 42, Rubio 46
Clinton 41, Carson 47

Sanders 44, Trump 46
Sanders 42, Cruz 44
Sanders 40, Fiorina 40
Sanders 39, Bush 42
Sanders 39, Rubio 44
Sanders 37, Carson 46  

........

Down from a much-more favorable environment for Hillary Clinton, likely from before the investigation of Benghazi and the server 'scandal'. Still, Democrats don't need North Carolina to win nationwide,  and it hasn't been even close to being a tipping-point state since 1976.

If North Carolina is at all close for Hillary Clinton on Election Night, then Republicans are going to have a very bad time.  

PPP gives its story on Iowa next week after polling in the upcoming weekend.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

That's sad, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than Utah.

There will be more Pennsylvania polls; I just can't say when and by whom. Current polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was ensnared in the doubt about the private server and the 'scandal' of Benghazi.

I'm just making a prediction. Pennsylvania will again look very Atlas Red on this map.

[pbrower2a]

 St. Leo University, Florida.

    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Trump, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Rubio, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 51.2 percent, vs. Carson, 39.1 percent.
    Clinton, 47.3 percent, vs. Bush, 37.9 percent.
    Clinton, 53 percent, vs. Cruz, 34.7 percent
    Clinton, 55.2 percent, vs. former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina, 29.7 percent.

    Clinton, 47.5 percent; Fiorina, 12.9 percent; Trump, 30.7 percent.
    Clinton, 46 percent; Cruz, 21.3 percent; Trump, 26 percent.
    Clinton, 45.5 percent; Carson, 20.3 percent; Trump, 27.7 percent,
    Clinton, 44.8 percent; Rubio, 21.8 percent; Trump, 28.2 percent.
    Clinton, 41.8 percent; Bush, 19.1 percent; Trump, 33.4 percent.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/florida-mirrors-nation-in-persistent-affinity-for-trump-or-clinton-plus-growing-concern-for-security/

No way does any Democratic nominee get 55% against any Republican nominee in Florida.Valid only if there is corroboration with other polls (for which see how I see Minnesota).

[pbrower2a]

Montana, Montana State University, Billings:

Trump (R): 51%
Clinton (D): 30%

Carson (R): 60%
Clinton (D): 29%

Rubio (R): 57%
Clinton (D): 29%

Cruz (R): 56%
Clinton (D): 31%

Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf


........

That Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992 and that Barack Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 is now amazing.

   
New Strategies 360 Arizona: Clinton just behind Trump, trailing Rubio/Cruz

https://twitter.com/ConsultReid/status/677196690085031936
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-Toplines.pdf
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-CrosstabsR.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I doubt that as their political views get better known that they will do well with the Latino (in Arizona that is largely Mexican-American). Right-wing Cuban-Americans won't likely do any better among Mexican-Americans than will right-wing Anglos in getting Mexican-American votes. Arizona will probably be closer than that with Cruz or Rubio... and the poor showing of Donald Trump suggests that if he is nominated, anything goes in a state that has gone for a Democratic nominee only once since 1948.  

The tie between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush is very, very old and likely obsolete.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Time is running out this year: I doubt that there will be many polls until early January.

The Q polls are now obsolete, and I predict that new Q polls will reflect a movement toward Hillary Clinton.  PPP has a national poll this week.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP. Very mixed results.

Clinton (D): 41%
Rubio (R): 48%

Clinton (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 47%

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 41%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 42%

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 43%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 45%

Clinton (D): 39%
Rubio (R): 33%
Trump (I): 23%

Clinton (D): 41%
Cruz (R): 33%
Trump (I): 20%

Sanders (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 39%

Sanders (D): 44%
Bush (R): 40%

Sanders (D): 46%
Trump (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 43%
Carson (R): 42%

Sanders (D): 42%
Rubio (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-third-party-bid-could-doom-gop-in-swing-state.html

Probably the last statewide matchups of 2015, unless Q has something for us next week. PPP will poll nationally this weekend. Would someone please poll Pennsylvania soon?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Q shows some movement. It's a national poll, so it portends changes in its next set of statewide polls  of anything. But such will likely be unavailable until January.

With this  national poll I can't imagine Hillary Clinton being behind anyone in Pennsylvania or being anything other than close in Florida or Ohio. No way could she be losing to Donald Trump in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Wisconsin. She would be close to Trump in Arizona and North Carolina, at the least.

Up by 7 for Hillary Clinton? That suggests a map with a magnitude of wins at least as strong for Hillary Clinton as for Barack Obama in 2008.     

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Dec. 16-20:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311

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My maps of binary match-ups are often terribly obsolete.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of Clinton winning by 7% against Donald Trump based upon
(1) current polls
(2) polls from before the attention to Benghazi and the private server
(3) recent electoral behavior of the states

Note: (2) is now more realistic than (1)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

80% blue -- Trump by 10% or more
50% blue -- Trump by 4-9.9%
20% blue -- Trump by 1-3.9%
white -- virtual tie
20% red -- Clinton by 1-3.9%
50% red -- Clinton by 4-9.9%
80% red -- Clinton by 10% or more

If you are wondering about Kansas, Louisiana, and Utah -- Kansas seems to be getting increasingly unsatisfied with Republicans. Louisiana elected a Democrat as Governor last month. Utah? Trump is doing very badly for a Republican; I think that Mormons are dissatisfied with his business dealings and personal lifestyle.    

[pbrower2a]

Pataki has dropped out -- as if anyone really cared.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10816.pdf

First statewide poll of 2016. It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

(The Field Poll has some interesting polls for California, but those do not yet include binary match-ups).

vs Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

vs Sanders

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

3 WAY!

Clinton 43
Rubio 29
Trump 20

Clinton 47
Cruz 28
Trump 18

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

So Trump wins PA, NV, and FL, but loses VA?

Almost all statewide polls are now at least three weeks old. There is a college poll in Florida that shows Hillary Clinton winning Florida by astonishing margins, but I don't believe it. Florida is not D+5.

We are going to see more polling. This coming week we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that Democrats really need (like New Hampshire) to win to win the Presidency.  I expect to see more polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... and even more of Iowa and New Hampshire -- because pollsters do those states often.

The most recent polls have been national polls, and they are consistent with Hillary Clinton having at the least a bare win of the Presidency. The only way in which she is losing so many swing states yet tied nationally is that the partisan identities in American life are beginning to resemble those of the 1970s, which I just don't see happening.   

[pbrower2a]

California -- Field Poll. Not that anyone expects the Golden State to be gold for Democratic nominees for President and 55 electoral votes out of reach for any Republican. These are not binary match-ups, but it is safe to say that neither Rubio, Cruz, nor Trump has a chance in California.   


Image ratings of the leading candidates (among the overall California registered voter population):

52-31 Sanders (+21)
50-44 Hillary (+6)
30-46 Rubio (-16)
29-51 Cruz (-22)
22-73 Trump (-51)

The findings come from a Field Poll completed December 16, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers


Nothing on Kasich, Jeb Bush, Carson, or Fiorina.

...nothing to add to the map. Basically consistent with the Cook D+9 rating for California in  national elections.