Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election

[Heisenberg]

Joe Donnelly.

I was literally thinking of him when I read the article, then I scroll down and see you beat me to naming him. Bill Redmond in the 1997 special election for a NM-03 comes to mind. The Democratic candidate was unpopular, but expected to win, until the Green party candidate had an unexpected surge just before the election, and siphoned off enough votes to play the spoiler effect and hand Redmond victory. He ran for reelection to a full term, but lost to Tom Udall. Redmond is the only Republican to ever represent NM-03. And the district has become so Democratic owning that after Redmond lost reelection, Republicans have never really made serious attempts to win back the seat.

[Heisenberg]

Joe Donnelly.

I didn't think of this as an example because Democrats occasionally get lucky with Indiana senate races and Richard Mourdock never had a lock on the election.

You are right, actually. Even before Mourdock's gaffe, Indiana was rated as a toss-up by Sabato. In the same cycle, however, Claire McCaskill was completely done for before Akin's comments, for all intents and purposes.

Donnelly was not a sacrificial lamb against Mourdock, but against Lugar I think he would have been. I think Lugar would've been heavily favored against Donnelly. When Lugar was defeated in the primary, the IN Senate race became a battleground. Mourdock really thought he could win, but we all know how that went.

[Heisenberg]

If we're talking about the House as well, how about Crescent Hardy?

Well, his district is a new one created after 2010 redistricting, is considered a swing district (even though Obama won its areas both times), and Nevada is a Republican-leaning state in midterms. Republicans saw it as ripe pickup ground if Sandoval, who is very popular, could drive the Republican candidate to victory. Different from Farenthold and Cravaack, who knocked off entrenched, longtime incumbents.