"The Vorlon" says "Hi" to everybody :)

[The Vorlon]

Hello everybody!

I know I am likely breaking about a half dozen rules with the "topic", (Cut me a little slack there Nym, ok..?) but I dropped in quickly a day or so ago, and evrybody was just so darn nice, so many people left me nice comments, nice personal messages, etc, that I felt I really should say "hi" back at everybody in a formal kind of way.

This presidential election is shaping up to be very interesting in a lot of ways, and there ~~may~~ be a public opinion poll along the way I might want to comment upon.

Don't expect to be around a huge amount, but I will definetly be around and watching things closely.

Thanks again to everybody for such a super amazingly kind welcome back!

[MODU]

It's always good to see you, bud.  Hope you are doing well up there.

[The Mikado]

Hello everybody!

I know I am likely breaking about a half dozen rules with the "topic", but I dropped in quickly a day or so ago, and evrybody was just so darn nice, so many people left me nice comments, nice personal messages, etc, that I felt I really should say "hi" back at everybody in a formal kind of way.

This presidential election is shaping up to be very interesting in a lot of ways, and there ~~may~~ be a public opinion poll along the way I might want to comment upon :smile:

Don't expect to be around a huge amount, but I will definetly be around and watching things closely.

Thanks again to everybody for such a super amazingly kind welcome back!

I arrived after you left, but I was lurking while you were here.  You have an amazing grasp on polling, and I look forward to your comments.

Also, weren't you Nevadan?  Or are the L-NV and L-AL avatars too similar for me to tell apart?

[The Vorlon]

I arrived after you left, but I was lurking while you were here.  You have an amazing grasp on polling, and I look forward to your comments.

Also, weren't you Nevadan?  Or are the L-NV and L-AL avatars too similar for me to tell apart?

Been up in Alberta, Canada for quite a while now.  Never been to Nevada actually.

Thanks again for the kind words.

The polls are already interesting, there are a ton of cross currents in the underlying data that suggest we could actually see some fairly substantial movement, and the core undecides are pretty high too.  This may be a pretty amazing race.

The Clinton/Obama thing was a once in a generation political event we may never see the likes of again, and the Obama/McCain race, at least at this point could also be amazing.

2004, for all it's closeness, was actually very boring from a polling point of view.  Both candidates had their base vote - the candidate that did a better job getting his vote out won - end of story.

In 2008 there are actual large segments and pools of legitimately undecided, and legitimately convinceable voters who may actually be swayed and moved - it's exciting!

[Platypus]

Welcome back, even if just for a few posts

[muon2]

Welcome back, even if sporadically. I agree that there seems to be less definition in the electorate than 4, or perhaps even 2 years ago. I'll make sure I post any useful poll info I pick up at the RNC next week.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Welcome back, even if sporadically. I agree that there seems to be less definition in the electorate than 4, or perhaps even 2 years ago. I'll make sure I post any useful poll info I pick up at the RNC next week.

Have a nice visit to the Old Pueblo.

Hope you miss the end of the monsoons.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I certainly look forward to seeing you back a bit more (which isn't saying that much). 

[Gustaf]

Nice to see you. I'm expecting a prediction with accompanying analysis at some point. Your comments are always an aid to understanding what's going on and I very much appreciate it.

[J. J.]

Good to see you Vorlon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'ello

[Monty]

Glad you're back!

[Beet]

wb dude.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Welcome back

[Beet]

Atlas forum side, "The Vorlon" should start his own blog and comment about polls. It would certainly go on my RSS feed.

[Sam Spade]

I guess it's about time for me to ask a few questions, because the comments you made above leave it open:

1) You say that the Obama-McCain race could be amazing.  What exactly do you mean by that (and I know its a very general statement), other than the plain observation that we will either elect the first *black* president (not Bill Clinton) or we will elect the oldest president during the open presidential election with the worst dynamics against his party since 1952 (I think it's worse than 1976, but you may disagree)? 

I am presuming that you think McCain has a reasonable chance of winning, based on your other statements.

2) You say there are strong crosscurrents and high core undecideds.  The core undecideds are obviously higher than 2004, but how high are they?  20% core undecideds was always the historical maximum during more non-partisan times and I always suspected in 2004 the core undecideds were about 6%.  Obviously, the core undecideds must be less right now, but where are they?

I personally have thought throughout this summer that Obama possesses a stronger core base of support just simply because there are X number of people who won't vote for a third-term Republican after Bush.  I really can't see it being any lower than 43% (and I have trouble with it being this low) and quite frankly I would tend to put it as high as 47%.  Is this really where it should be?

McCain's core support I can picture as being lower, around 43%, maybe even lower than that.  He appears to have solidified some of his soft leaners over the summer to put him up close to Obama's core support, but I don't think he's there yet?  Is this an accurate representation?

3) What can be the impact of third parties in this election where so many people are dissatisfied?  I personally doubt they can have much impact since they have such little funding (and are missing the ballot deadlines in places, which is a real detriment), but how high can they realistically get without serious funding (2% maybe) and who do they impact (I presume Republicans more than Democrats)?

I'll have more later...

[Sam Spade]

Also, where I think the states lie *at this moment in time* with respect to *the polls*.

O+10 or above = Dark Red (Safe O)
O+10 to O+6 = Light Red (Likely O)
O+6 to O+3 = Pink (Lean O)
O+3 to M+3 = Gray (Tossup)
M+3 to M+6 = Light Blue (Lean M)
M+6 to M+10 = Middle Blue (Likely M)
M+10 or above = Dark Blue (Safe M)

[agcatter]

Man, I miss Vorlon's analysis of polling and the state of the race - it was one of the absolute reasons I hung around this board in 2004.

Hope to hear more from ya Vorlon.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Same as The Mikado. I registered after you left, but I was lurking when you were around. Just wanted to say hello.

[ilikeverin]

Vorlon! *hughughug*

Sit.  Stay.  Good Vorlon.  Now analyze polls.  And make sure to drive off every Zogby poll from our sacred lands.

[minionofmidas]

Vorlon! *hughughug*

Sit.  Stay.  Good Vorlon.  Now analyze polls.  And make sure to drive off every Zogby poll from our sacred lands.

[TheWildCard]

Hello everybody!

I know I am likely breaking about a half dozen rules with the "topic", (Cut me a little slack there Nym, ok..?) but I dropped in quickly a day or so ago, and evrybody was just so darn nice, so many people left me nice comments, nice personal messages, etc, that I felt I really should say "hi" back at everybody in a formal kind of way.

This presidential election is shaping up to be very interesting in a lot of ways, and there ~~may~~ be a public opinion poll along the way I might want to comment upon.

Don't expect to be around a huge amount, but I will definetly be around and watching things closely.

Thanks again to everybody for such a super amazingly kind welcome back!

Welcome back Vorlon, you'll opinions on polls are always welcomed and anticipated!

Hope all is well buddy!

[Хahar 🤔]

Can't believe I missed this.