New poll hype thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +7
Texas: Trump +11

I'd take a couple of points off each of these, but I think you've got the relative margins dead on.

[amdcpus]

Arizona: Trump +6
Georgia: Trump +8
Texas: Trump +12

[heatcharger]

Arizona: Trump +2, McCain +9
Georgia: Trump +7, Isakson +14
Texas: Trump +9

[Devout Centrist]

Texas: Trump +7
Georgia: Trump +5
Arizona: Clinton +1

Another joke prediction on my part

[elcorazon]

TX - Trump + 11
GA - Trump + 7
AZ - Trump + 3

[Ronnie]

Arizona: Trump +4
Texas: Trump +12
Georgia: Trump +6

[Donnie]

5 minutes...come on let's give us this new numbers...i am shaking already.

[Maxwell]

AZ: Trump +2 (optimistic)
TX: Trump +8 (optimistic)
GA: Trump +7 (drop in blakz)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

AZ: Trump +3, McCain +10
GA: Trump +8, Isakson +12
TX: Trump +12

[HillOfANight]

I just got a poll from YouGov, for "Special Georgia Election Poll". I guess it will be announced Sunday.

[BoAtlantis]

ProfessorPickles ‏@NYMETS32  
@tbonier Any more Ohio polls coming from you?
Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  
@NYMETS32 Sunday

TargetSmart will apparently release OH poll on Sunday.

Conducted from 10/20 to 11/2 (it includes Comey-gate)

Not much update but he confirmed it again just now.

"Sunday we'll be releasing our last tracker - this time in OH. It will include a large oversample of the AV/EV. Sure to be interesting!"

[HillOfANight]

I just got a poll from YouGov, for "Special Georgia Election Poll". I guess it will be announced Sunday.

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/794350116480155648
Lori Geary said a close race in Georgia, probably within the margin of error, will be released tomorrow. Most likely by Landmark.

Their polls.

10/20: Trump +4
10/12: Trump +6
7/31: Tie
7/24: Trump +2
5/5: Trump +1

[jaichind]

I just got a poll from YouGov, for "Special Georgia Election Poll". I guess it will be announced Sunday.

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/794350116480155648
Lori Geary said a close race in Georgia, probably within the margin of error, will be released tomorrow. Most likely by Landmark.

Their polls.

10/20: Trump +4
10/12: Trump +6
7/31: Tie
7/24: Trump +2
5/5: Trump +1

Their model

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/

seems to have a very pro-Clinton sample for GA but on the other hand they have Trump very strong in PA relative to other polls

[HillOfANight]

On RCP, their state specific polls have been PA Clinton +8 2 times. Their state specific GA poll was Trump +4.

Their "model" basically takes a huge national survey, use MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification), taking various attributes of you, and then applying that to what they know about the states. So someone in Alaska could be affecting the Georgia results...

Basically I think they are using national white college support of Clinton (55%) too much in Georgia (where white college are only 30% for her in GA)...

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/04/YouGov-Model-State-of-2016/

[F_S_USATN]

Josh JordanVerified account
‏@NumbersMuncher
Final Fox News poll out today... tons more to come this weekend. Will race tighten further or is this as close as Trump is going to get?

[Gustaf]

Josh JordanVerified account
‏@NumbersMuncher
Final Fox News poll out today... tons more to come this weekend. Will race tighten further or is this as close as Trump is going to get?

Finally a goddam poll. This has been pretty slow so far.

[The Other Castro]

As we are approaching the final poll releases for pollster, here's a reminder of 2012's final polls from pollsters we might see updates from:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
GWU/Battleground: Tie
ABC/WashPost: Obama +3
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
CNN: Tie
Monmouth: Tie
NBC/WSJ: Obama +1
Pew: Obama +3
FOX: Tie
CBS/NYT: Obama +1

[Speed of Sound]

As we are approaching the final poll releases for pollster, here's a reminder of 2012's final polls from pollsters we might see updates from:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
GWU/Battleground: Tie
ABC/WashPost: Obama +3
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
CNN: Tie
Monmouth: Tie
NBC/WSJ: Obama +1
Pew: Obama +3
FOX: Tie
CBS/NYT: Obama +1

God, I always forget how crazy close it was down the line polling-wise in 2012. Those are great memories, that one was a fun one.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And here from 2008

Marist                                Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports             Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby        Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                            Obama +8
FOX News                           Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl        Obama +8
CBS News                             Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post             Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy                     Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research         Obama +7
Pew Research                      Obama +6

[ApatheticAustrian]

Fox: Hillary +1

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Fox: Hillary +1

What time will/usually do they realease the poll?

[Devout Centrist]

Clinton +5

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fox: Hillary +1

What time will/usually do they realease the poll?

It's usually on Baier's show at 6 ET

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't think fox's poll is fresh enough for the counter-swing-swing.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's usually on Baier's show at 6 ET

Thanks!

don't think fox's poll is fresh enough for the counter-swing-swing.

They has always published their polls the next day, so it will probably be from Nov 1-3.