Kentucky Gubernatorial Primaries

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just heard some things about Lusford. He sounds AWFUL.

Very good that Beshear won then.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I call the race for Beshear, who leads 62-34.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f23b228f-3379-4e39-a321-e7658ecfeda3&c=45

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL, Beshear is winning a majority of Northup's voters!

[Verily]

Beshear's even winning 20% of people who voted for Fletcher himself in the primary!

This one is over, folks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suspect I know why those folks voted for Fletcher...

Good work to them.

[Mr.Phips]

This race is going to be the mirror image of Louisiana.

[RBH]

the samples used for the "voted for" are a bit screwy.

The real samples from primary votes-

Fletcher: 14%
Northup: 10%
Harper: 4%
Beshear: 20%
Lunsford: 10%
Henry: 9%
Richards: 6%
Gatewood: 3%
Hensley: 1%
Didn't vote: 23%

The samples used were

Fletcher: 21%
Northup: 10%
Harper: 5%
Beshear: 28%
Lunsford: 5%
Henry: 5%
Other: 6%
Didn't vote: 23%

Therefore, if this election were held just by the 77% of people who voted in the primary, then the following would happen

1) Beshear would win 70/30
2) Fletcher would win 14 counties

So basically the map would look like this:



The 23% of people who didn't vote would change some of the map. I didn't factor them in since I don't have good info on turnout.

[Alcon]

I call the race for Beshear, who leads 62-34.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f23b228f-3379-4e39-a321-e7658ecfeda3&c=45

I like how 77% of them voted in the primary.

Uh-huh.

This is looking like it may be one of the greatest landslides in history for an incumbent.

[RBH]

21.9% of Democrats and 19.8% of Republicans voted.

So it's not unreasonable that they would make up 77% of the general election turnout.

If you look at the TV market map, Northup got whupped outside of the Louisville TV Market

[Verily]

Perhaps a lot of people who voted for Lunsford and Henry in the primary are too disgusted with the center-left Beshear and the corrupt Fletcher to vote at all.

Similarly, I would imagine people willing to vote for Fletcher in the primary are also more likely to vote in the general than people who voted for Northup. Northup voters face the same conundrum of a candidate they don't agree with against a candidate they hate, so many of them may not vote at all.