GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff just challenged Handel to six debates before the runoff.

Huh. I have to suppress my reaction that this is what likely losers do and just take it at face value.

It will be interesting to see how Ossoff performs in a debate.  He comes across well in his ads, but having to respond in real time is very different.  My impression of Handel from past debates is that she didn't leave much of an impression; her performance was neither great nor horrible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, I haven't heard any Handel radio ads since the primary, but Ossoff's have continued without a break (the same as before, I haven't heard any new ones yet).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any idea that Jon Ossoff is basically the pinnacle of hope for all red state Dems in 2018? Kind of like how Scott Brown was for blue state Republicans in 2010?

Not at all.  There are quite a few bluer districts than GA-6 that are currently held by Republicans.

There were a lot of Senate seats up for reelection in 2010 that were D-held and redder than Massachusetts. Doesn't mean the Republicans won them.

I don't get your point.  Certainly they didn't win all of them, but they did flip six seats that year; four open seats (IL, IN, ND, PA) and two where they defeated D incumbents (AR/Lincoln and WI/Feingold) -- all without losing any R-held seats.   That was clearly a great year for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any idea that Jon Ossoff is basically the pinnacle of hope for all red state Dems in 2018? Kind of like how Scott Brown was for blue state Republicans in 2010?

Not at all.  There are quite a few bluer districts than GA-6 that are currently held by Republicans.

There were a lot of Senate seats up for reelection in 2010 that were D-held and redder than Massachusetts. Doesn't mean the Republicans won them.

I don't get your point.  Certainly they didn't win all of them, but they did flip six seats that year; four open seats (IL, IN, ND, PA) and two where they defeated D incumbents (AR/Lincoln and WI/Feingold) -- all without losing any R-held seats.   That was clearly a great year for the GOP.

Yeah, but I'm just saying you should be cautious in trying to extrapolate the Georgia 6 results as simplistically as saying that since Dems got X% in GA-6, they'd get X+10% in some other district that voted 10% more Democratic than GA-6 in 2016. The 2018 election is over a year and a half away, and a lot of things can happen by then. That's all I'm saying.

Oh, I completely agree with you there.  My point was just that there are a number of seats that, at least on paper, should be better D targets than GA-6.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump will be in Atlanta this Friday to address the NRA convention, and will hold a fundraiser for Handel while he's here: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/25/trump-to-hold-fundraiser-for-handel-on-friday-in-atlanta/

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you would like to follow the lawsuit that's been filed to reopen voter registration for the runoff (as seems to be required by the National Voter Registration Act, but is not allowed by Georgia Law): https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/21205020/Georgia_State_Conference_of_the_NAACP_et_al_v_State_of_Georgia_et_al

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/28/at-fundraiser-trump-quips-to-handel-youd-better-win-6th-district-race/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is the most expensive House race in U.S. history right?

It will almost certainly end up as the most expensive...so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has consistently been running to the center, trying to position himself as someone who will work with all sides in Washington.  IMO this is a good strategy for a Democrat in this district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A federal judge has ordered that voter registration be reopened until May 21.

Link: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/federal-judge-orders-georgia-reopen-voter-registration-ahead-6th-district-runoff/ZeJBoBDNllqHU7JGtnUzcN/

[GeorgiaModerate]

When will the two candidates debate each other and where can I watch it?

I'm not aware of any debates having been scheduled yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That poll was taken before that abortion of a health care bill was passed, I would assume.

The poll was taken May 3-4, so partly before and partly after passage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

I don't get this either.  Ryan's favorability is way underwater (HuffPo's average is 33/47). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff is now engaged: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/georgia-6th-ossoff-is-engaged-to-longtime-girlfriend/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Landmark has been fairly good in Georgia polls over the years.  But it's clear (and has been for some time) that this is a margin-of-error race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Heard my first negative Ossoff ad this morning, attacking Handel for a record of wasteful spending.  All the previous ones have focused on what Ossoff proposes to do in Congress.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New attack ad calls Ossoff "San Francisco's Congressman": http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/09/georgia-6th-san-francisco-thanks-ossoff-in-attack-ad/

Six weeks to go...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handel applauds the Comey firing: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/10/georgia-6th-handel-says-comeys-firing-was-probably-overdue/

Ossoff calls for a special prosecutor: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/09/georgia-6th-ossoff-calls-for-probe-of-russian-interference-after-comeys-canning/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting locations for the runoff have been set.  There will be a total of 13: 5 in DeKalb County, 6 in Fulton, and 2 in Cobb.  The first round had 8 locations (2 DeKalb, 4 Fulton, 2 Cobb).  These locations are determined by each county's board of elections. 

http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/more-early-voting-sites-open-democrat-leaning-areas-for-6th-district-race/HGLMZduehJL8snLqtt4C4O/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting locations for the runoff have been set.  There will be a total of 13: 5 in DeKalb County, 6 in Fulton, and 2 in Cobb.  The first round had 8 locations (2 DeKalb, 4 Fulton, 2 Cobb).  These locations are determined by each county's board of elections. 

http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/more-early-voting-sites-open-democrat-leaning-areas-for-6th-district-race/HGLMZduehJL8snLqtt4C4O/

Wow three extra sites in DeKalb is pretty big. Which county had the lowest turnout in the first round?

Caution: this is based on my memory; I can't seem to find the actual numbers online easily.  I believe that turnout in April was roughly 45% in Cobb, 40% in Fulton, but much lower in DeKalb (in the 20's).  It's worth noting that there was a long-lasting downpour in parts of DeKalb on Election Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting locations for the runoff have been set.  There will be a total of 13: 5 in DeKalb County, 6 in Fulton, and 2 in Cobb.  The first round had 8 locations (2 DeKalb, 4 Fulton, 2 Cobb).  These locations are determined by each county's board of elections. 

http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/more-early-voting-sites-open-democrat-leaning-areas-for-6th-district-race/HGLMZduehJL8snLqtt4C4O/

Wow three extra sites in DeKalb is pretty big. Which county had the lowest turnout in the first round?

Caution: this is based on my memory; I can't seem to find the actual numbers online easily.  I believe that turnout in April was roughly 45% in Cobb, 40% in Fulton, but much lower in DeKalb (in the 20's).  It's worth noting that there was a long-lasting downpour in parts of DeKalb on Election Day.

From the Secretary of State's office:

Cobb: 47.55%
Dekalb: 44.67%
Fulton: 40.68%

Thanks.  The Cobb and Fulton numbers are in line with what I remember, but no idea where I heard that DeKalb number from...it was way off.  Chalk it up to advancing age.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handel needs to give Trump supporters a reason to not stay home, but at the same time she's giving Republicans who hate Trump more of a reason to stay home or vote for Ossoff.

Don't count on this happening--we thought the exact same would happen with the presidential election, and look where we're at instead. Republicans will show up regardless.

Not every single race is going to mirror the presidential election. The point is that Handel coming out in support of things that are unpopular will do nothing to help her with undecided voters

Oh, I don't by any stretch think this will mirror the presidential election--more realistically it'll mirror the 2014 midterms because Dem turnout is even lower in races where the president isn't on the ballot.

The first round of this election seems to indicate the contrary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Gravis poll:

Ossoff 47
Handel 45

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/14/new-poll-has-ossoff-handel-neck-and-neck-in-6th-district-runoff/

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/gravis-marketing-ga-6th-congressional-poll/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gravis%20Marketing&utm_content=Poll1


Of those who didn’t vote in the first round, 53% said they’ll vote for Ossoff in the runoff, 32% for Handel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I meant to post about this a week or two ago, but I had heard through someone in the state party that Ossoff's campaign basically stopped phone banking (and/or canvassing possibly) for some period of time because they have totally saturated the district, contacted every voter by phone and door multiple times and were starting to piss off rather large numbers of people. Not sure how reliable/true that is but I wouldn't think the person would've just made it up.

Do you think they'll start up again when early voting opens (May 30)?