GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

D.C. absolutely has the worst traffic, although Atlanta's infrastructure seems to be piss poor.

Not to mention the disaster on I-85 after the bridge collapse.

We also had part of I-20 buckle yesterday during the evening rush hour and shut down all lanes for several hours.  Fortunately it wasn't that serious and was open today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Imagine if Ossoff got 49.98%.

Imagine if he got exactly 50%. I imagine you need over 50% to avoid a runoff.

Nope, you need 50.00000000%

No, you need 50% plus one vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ashford Dunwoody Prec Ossoff 537 of 1121 votes >50 went 45.69 Trump to 45.91 Clinton in November. Prepare for a long night #gapol

[GeorgiaModerate]

@Nate_Cohn:

Turnout is near midterm levels in these DeKalb precincts, which is going to raise the burden even higher on the GOP in Cobb

[GeorgiaModerate]

From DDHQ:

Numbers inbound for EARLY votes for Cobb, Ossoff 57% in early there

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still early vote guys, don't overreact.

Always sound advice.  But you've got to think Ossoff is happier about these numbers than the GOP is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

@toddmr:

Ossoff 364 of 832 in Midvale Elem in Dekalb went 48 Trump 38 Clinton in Nov. #gapol

[GeorgiaModerate]

BREAKING: Ashford Parkside in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 52.4% of 1038 votes cast. Hillary was 57.0%.

According to 538, he needs almost 59% there

Is that 52.4% ED only, or EV+ED?

[GeorgiaModerate]

From JeffB at DDHQ:

Chances of Ossoff shocking the world and breaking 50% outright in #GA06 are rising by the minute.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm starting to wonder if Ossoff will do better than we all thought or if this is actually just too early for us to be focusing on this.

Both could be true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

@LakeChip (a veteran GOP operative in Georgia):

If the drop in Early Votes to Election Day votes in Cobb and Fulton are proportional he's over 50% #GA06

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff down to 54% in Cobb.

If Ossoff even comes close to 50 in Cobb, he'll easily top it overall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
We're going to be here for a while

Just cracked open a 12 pack.

Either I'm gonna see who wins or drunkenly pass out and find out tomorrow

Both could be true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

@toddmr:

Ossoff 316 of 506 in Cross Keys (~=60%) went 51.6 Clinton to 37 Trump in Nov

(A DeKalb precinct.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can anyone explain the reason for the seriously slow counting?

Metro ATL, and Fulton in particular, are always notoriously slow.  I've heard they have some antiquated procedures that slow things down, but don't know the details.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So far Bob Gray is getting demolished... that's surprising.

Gray was the most Trumpian candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been wondering this, and I wanted to know:

How would Ossoff's beliefs be defined as?  Moderate, liberal, or progressive?  And please explain why.

Also, when I mean liberal, I mean in the middle of moderate and Elizabeth Warren-style progressive.

Without a track record it's hard to be sure.  His ads have a very bipartisan message that, as a centrist, I found appealing.  If I lived in the 6th, I'd have voted for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He's been holding at around 56-57% for a bit now, and 85,000 votes are counted. That's surely right at or over a majority of the total vote by now. Hmm.

Maybe not.  One of the analysts (sorry, I've lost track of who) was saying it looked like turnout could approach 200K.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT says Fulton now 16% reporting, Ossoff dropped to 55.3% there.

Per @Bencjacobs, those were 19 precincts in far north Fulton (very Republican territory).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why isn't anyone here thinking this could've been a strategic move on Sanders part? I live in Georgia near the district so I get to see all the ads (despite living outside of it) and most of the attack ads on Ossoff are already calling him too liberal and a rubber-stamp Democrat as it is--a Sanders endorsement will just add fuel to the attacks. This isn't a national race but a local one and the voting habits need to be taken into consideration.

I agree with you on this.  A Sanders endorsement wouldn't gain Ossoff many more D votes than he's already going to get, but it sure would have turned off a bunch of the crossover R's that he needs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's possible Bernie may have said that for strategic reasons; I don't really know or care.  Another possibility is that he may just be speaking out of honest conviction.  I'd rather see a politician (of any stripe) who acts out of personal integrity rather than in automatic lockstep with their party.  This has sadly become much less common over the years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would've helped if Ossoff had moved back into the district as soon as he started running.   It probably made a lot of people uncomfortable that he doesn't live there.

It probably would have helped a little, but I doubt whether it made the difference between 48% and 50%.  He grew up in the district and his current location is just a stone's throw away.  Still, it wouldn't hurt him to move now to remove it as a potential issue in the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lawsuit-georgia-is-suppressing-ga-6-voters-with-registration-deadline

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This seems non-ambiguous. Runoffs are clearly defined as being applicable to the 30 days or less deadline requirement. I don't get why Georgia would even waste money on defending that.

Oh. Nevermind.

The argument which the state regularly makes is that a runoff is not a separate election but an "extension" of a general election. Bit of strained logic, but there you are.

I think the language is very clear.  The NVRA text says that registration is allowed up to 30 days before the date of the election, or less if a shorter period is specified by state law.  https://www.justice.gov/crt/title-42-public-health-and-welfare-chapter-20-elective-franchise-subchapter-i-h-national-voter#anchor_1973gg

The key is the definition of "election", which title 42 says is:

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The numbers have changed over the years, and 2:431 is now 52:30101, which you can find at http://www.fec.gov/law/feca/feca52.pdf and says (emphasis mine):

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I don't see how the state has a case that a runoff isn't a separate election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another good article from the AJC, whose coverage of this race has been excellent: "How the 6th District went from red to purple".  http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/how-the-6th-district-went-from-red-purple/b7y60fDp6NskrCxxOoSE2I/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any idea that Jon Ossoff is basically the pinnacle of hope for all red state Dems in 2018? Kind of like how Scott Brown was for blue state Republicans in 2010?

Not at all.  There are quite a few bluer districts than GA-6 that are currently held by Republicans.