GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Harry Enten:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

For all science geeks fans:  https://xkcd.com/1852/

It makes as much sense as some of the other GA-6 analysis we've seen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tom Bonier's guide to watching the returns tomorrow night:
https://medium.com/@tombonier/ga06-runoff-viewing-guide-34490167c49d

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the  new Landmark result following Trafalgar, it's clear that the race is tightening at the end.  This isn't too surprising as the undecideds in a Republican district start making up their minds. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

Also, factors such as weather could have an effect on Election Day turnout.  That won't affect early votes that are already cast.

(In case anyone's interested: the forecast for tomorrow is nice in the morning, with rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

55 is my benchmark. The EV should be over half of the district's vote, and Handel probably cannibalized a lot of ED voters compared to Round 1

With 130k votes cast early and assuming another 90k will vote tomorrow, Ossoff needs 55% in EV and 43% in ED (for a total of 50.2%).

He got 41% on ED in April, so assuming the GOP has cannibalized some of their vote in EV compared to April/relative to Dems, the latter should be doable. The former is the real question.

The EV count was actually a bit over 140K.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

55 is my benchmark. The EV should be over half of the district's vote, and Handel probably cannibalized a lot of ED voters compared to Round 1

With 130k votes cast early and assuming another 90k will vote tomorrow, Ossoff needs 55% in EV and 43% in ED (for a total of 50.2%).

He got 41% on ED in April, so assuming the GOP has cannibalized some of their vote in EV compared to April/relative to Dems, the latter should be doable. The former is the real question.

The EV count was actually a bit over 140K.

This prompted me to check the absentee file, and it looks like DeKalb processed a few more mail votes (about 180) over the weekend.  So the total early vote through yesterday was:

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32591 (23.2%)
Fulton 80518 (57.3%)
Total 140490

I'll check again after tonight's update and post something if the numbers change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

He does not even live in the district.

Isn't this only relevant if he loses by one vote?

It may cost him a few votes; it could be the deciding factor for a voter who was truly on the fence.  He probably should have moved into the district before the campaign started.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This old article of Nate Silver's is worth a re-read in the face of a close election: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-essential-questions-to-ask-in-close/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This race has wore me out and I don't even live in Georgia. No matter who wins tomorrow it will be a win for GA-06, the constituents there must be exhausted.

We'd like to thank the Ossoff and Handel campaigns for sponsoring the months of May and June on Atlanta TV and radio.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The numbers crept up in all three counties today; mail ballots will be accepted until the polls close tomorrow.  The early voting numbers through today:

Cobb 27916 (19.7%)
DeKalb 32679 (23.0%)
Fulton 81415 (57.3%)
Total 142010