Germany megathread

[President Johnson]

I suppose it's possible that the 0.3% that the Wagenknecht party gets at the next election will take away a seat from AfD.

Polls suggested she would get more than that. Whether that materialzes in the end and whether such a party would be a viable player is another question though. And while disdain Wagenknecht for being a pro-Russia shill, any vote the AfD doesn't get is good.

[jaichind]

I suppose it's possible that the 0.3% that the Wagenknecht party gets at the next election will take away a seat from AfD.

https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politik/exklusive-umfrage-wehe-wenn-die-gegen-die-ampel-antreten-84893782.bildMobile.html?t_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fen.m.wikipedia.org%2F

This INSA poll from July has such a hypothetical party at 15

[palandio]

There are many challenges for a potential Wagenknecht party and that's why I find it most likely that it will fail sooner or later:
- Wagenknecht seems to be not very talented at organizing and pursuing a successful long-term political project.
- In the East, where the electoral potential is probably the highest, so far no major LINKE politician has committed to her new project; not even Sören Pellmann, directly elected MP from Leipzig, who is known for being relatively close to her.
- If you look at some of Wagenknecht's friends in the LINKE caucus, they seem to be in this mostly for personal reasons and as part of the LINKE's traditional "left" wing, based on economic and welfare populism and anti-Americanism. On the other hand the political and mediatic space for this project will probably include certain right-wing elements that might be incompatible.
- German party law doesn't really allow for top-down parties. A new anti-establishment party will almost certainly attract a lot of loons and troublemakers. The direction that the party takes cannot be controlled by its founders. It would be much easier if Wagenknecht could just take over a part of the LINKE's established structures.
- Financial challenges. This seems to be one of the reasons why Wagenknecht is reluctant to officially found her party right in 2023. Parties get compensation for electoral success, but as much as they have earnings in that year; with the exception of parties that were only founded in the year of the election, they get compensation anyways. Money is also one of the reasons why a united LINKE caucus still exists.

Compared to all of this, voter potential or the lack of it doesn't seem to be the main challenge. Sure, the 20% that we see in some polls are probably unrealistic. On the other hand the recent shifts in party support indicate a certain potential of mostly genepool left-wing or center-left voters, that could support a new populist protest party. From my gut feeling, at least 5%, maybe even 10%.

[President Johnson]

Despite poor messaging, a new study actually concludes the Ampel government has gotton a lot done in the last nearly two years.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1701576396437389620

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In today's sitting of Thuringia's parliament, a proposal of the CDU to reduce real estate purchase excise tax ("Grunderwerbssteuer") from 6,5 to 5% got a majority thanks to the votes of the FDP and the AfD

(which also slashes a €48 million hole into the budget)

The "firewall" has got a gaping huge hole now; the CDU declined to negotiate with the minority Red-Red-Green coalition on the issue beforehand.

Shows where this is all going, at this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when"

[President Johnson]

In today's sitting of Thuringia's parliament, a proposal of the CDU to reduce real estate purchase excise tax ("Grunderwerbssteuer") from 6,5 to 5% got a majority thanks to the votes of the FDP and the AfD

(which also slashes a €48 million hole into the budget)

The "firewall" has got a gaping huge hole now; the CDU declined to negotiate with the minority Red-Red-Green coalition on the issue beforehand.

Shows where this is all going, at this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when"

If/when the AfD finally comes in first in one of the Eastern state elections next year, things will get interesting. Especially in case of a "negative majority", ergo AfD and Left obtaining a majority of seats. Since the CDU formally rules out a coalition with either, it could emerge into a hot mess.

[Oryxslayer]

In today's sitting of Thuringia's parliament, a proposal of the CDU to reduce real estate purchase excise tax ("Grunderwerbssteuer") from 6,5 to 5% got a majority thanks to the votes of the FDP and the AfD

(which also slashes a €48 million hole into the budget)

The "firewall" has got a gaping huge hole now; the CDU declined to negotiate with the minority Red-Red-Green coalition on the issue beforehand.

Shows where this is all going, at this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when"

If/when the AfD finally comes in first in one of the Eastern state elections next year, things will get interesting. Especially in case of a "negative majority", ergo AfD and Left obtaining a majority of seats. Since the CDU formally rules out a coalition with either, it could emerge into a hot mess.

Thankfully the horrible situation of Linke means the only place where they are still strong enough to make the negative majority a possibility is Thuringia. And the Thuringian situation is unique since it is not because of party strengths, but the politicians who led them, so the majority is not negative despite the 2019 results suggesting there already is such an impasse.

[President Johnson]

In today's sitting of Thuringia's parliament, a proposal of the CDU to reduce real estate purchase excise tax ("Grunderwerbssteuer") from 6,5 to 5% got a majority thanks to the votes of the FDP and the AfD

(which also slashes a €48 million hole into the budget)

The "firewall" has got a gaping huge hole now; the CDU declined to negotiate with the minority Red-Red-Green coalition on the issue beforehand.

Shows where this is all going, at this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when"

If/when the AfD finally comes in first in one of the Eastern state elections next year, things will get interesting. Especially in case of a "negative majority", ergo AfD and Left obtaining a majority of seats. Since the CDU formally rules out a coalition with either, it could emerge into a hot mess.

Thankfully the horrible situation of Linke means the only place where they are still strong enough to make the negative majority a possibility is Thuringia. And the Thuringian situation is unique since it is not because of party strengths, but the politicians who led them, so the majority is not negative despite the 2019 results suggesting there already is such an impasse.

It might still be possible though, especially if the FDP doesn't get past five percent and SPD/Greens are weak. Thuringa is certainly special in that regard due to Bodo Ramelow. And while he's still around 50% approval rating, his popularity has substantially gone down over the last few years. The CDU successfully blocked a snap election in 2020 when he was at the peak of his popularity after initially agreeing to one after the 2019 election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

On Thursday the 21st, the Bundestag passed the Energy Efficiency Act of 2023 into law.

The law makes energy savings mandatory across a wide variety of sectors, from industry to public buildings, and with special focus on data centers. The overall goal is to reduce energy usage by 26.5% in 2030 compared to 2008 levels. 

However, the law was watered down from the original draft from the spring, which included hard targets for industrial companies and a goal for further consumption beyond 2030. However, now some environmentalists claim that the law lacks any positive incentives to actually cut energy consumption, but still requires companies above a certain threshold to draft consumption reduction plans, which now leads to legal uncertainty.

[President Johnson]

Excellent decision by Chancellor Scholz. Germany won't block stricter EU asylum rules as Germany also increases border security measures. Greens were against it, the SPD divided and FDP for it. Scholz relatively often has sided with the FDP on various issus over the last two years.

https://twitter.com/F_Poeschel/status/1707048339957584238

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Scholz is apparently reaching out to the CDU/CSU to achieve broad consensus on his so-called "Germany Pact" for reform.

While the Germany Pact specifically entails the topics of modernization, infrastructure, accelerated planning, and better cooperation between municipalities, states and the federal government, the topic of refugees and asylum will also be discussed.

What the Union Wants

According to a report in the “Bild” newspaper, Linnemann and CDU/CSU parliamentary secretary Thorsten Frei have defined several points with which migration should be curbed.

Stationary border controls: They should be requested from the EU and - analogous to the procedure at the border with Austria - also introduced at those with Switzerland, Poland and the Czech Republic. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has not ruled this out in the future, but is relying on flexible controls on the Polish and Czech borders, including beyond the border line. The police union (GdP) considers this to be “very sensible,” as the chairman of the GdP federal police district, Andreas Roßkopf, told the Berlin “Tagesspiegel” - but this has been practiced for many years.

Payment cards: Asylum seekers should be able to use these to buy food, among other things. “The prepaid cards are intended to prevent them from being able to transfer money to their home countries,” the newspaper quoted from the Linnemann/Frei paper. The coalition partner FDP also represents a similar demand.

However, a general switch from cash to benefits in kind is considered difficult. Community association general manager  Gerd Landsberg  told the Düsseldorf “Rheinische Post”: “The switch to benefits in kind for all asylum seekers is difficult to implement, creates bureaucracy and does not do justice to people with a perspective of staying. According to the requirements of the Federal Constitutional Court, pocket money must be paid anyway.”

Asylum seekers with no prospects of staying: They should go through an accelerated asylum procedure in transit zones at the national border. Rejected applicants should be accommodated in return centers. “This is intended to prevent those required to leave the country from going into hiding,” quotes “Bild”. In the centers, those required to leave the country should no longer receive any money, but only benefits in kind “in the amount of the absolute minimum requirements”.

International: The federal government should also end all voluntary admission programs and declare the North African Mahgreb states and India to be safe countries of origin so that applications from asylum seekers from there could be more easily rejected.

Upper limits: Söder's demand is not raised by the CDU. On the contrary: “In my opinion, upper limits are not an answer to the question of how to comply with them,” said North Rhine-Westphalia’s Interior Minister Herbert Reul (CDU) to the Germany editorial network.

Generally this is fine, I'm a bit skeptical of declaring some North African states as safe, since clearly some of them are not, but otherwise it will be good if the CDU/CSU can be brought onboard to clear the way in the Bundestag and Bundesrat.

I am surprised that India is not currently considered to be a safe country. Does anyone know why that is?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am surprised that India is not currently considered to be a safe country. Does anyone know why that is?

"Safe country of origin", as the law tries to define it, is not a list of countries which are per se "safe", but a list of countries where we are receiving migrants from that we don't want. Hence Ghana is such a "safe country", while Canada is not.

If India is not on the list of "safe countries of origin" that means that we either don't receive migrants from there in significant numbers or that we don't mind receiving them.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Peter Zeihan predicting the end of Germany as an economic superpower.

The End for Germany?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmEhTFjQB1g

Interesting take, but not one I agree with.

[CumbrianLefty]

These takes are almost always overdone.

Germany still has a fair bit going for them despite the current problems.

[Storr]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

[Meclazine for Israel]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

This is a prevalent thought amongst older Australian's who feel exactly the same way about Palestinians in Western Sydney. The feeling is one of ungratefulness towards this country.

Mass immigration of Lebanese and Palestinians has given us these little Gaza-like suburbs generating close to 95% of the gangland violence in our largest city, if not the country.

Based on any reasonable analysis, one could argue that the Arab Muslim immigrants don't gel very well in Australian society like Asian immigrants, Italians or Hispanics.

They just live in a parallel Universe inside our country. We now have open anti-Semitism in the streets of Sydney with Palestinians supporting the massacre of Jews on the weekend.

F#@k The Jews. F&#k Israel!.

That is what Australian's heard this weekend after 1,200 Israeli citizens were slaughtered in cold blood.

Just another appalling display in a litany of equivalently absurd behaviours.

Give Sweden another 10 years and see what they say about their last mass immigration event. The results so far have been equally questioned.

It's not the actual people that they are complaining about. It's the 4th century religious attitudes that don't help with the assimilation process. There is little to no assimilation to the lifestyle.

Australia has few issues with Indian or Asian migrants for example. They don't bring the hate.

If you just had the children growing up in Germany without importing the pre-existing hatred, there would not be a problem.

[Ferguson97]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

Blaming antisemitism in Germany on immigrants is just hysterical.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

Blaming antisemitism in Germany on immigrants is just hysterical.

Sometimes people just need to calm the f**k down. Yeah, the events on Neukölln on Saturday were bad. But Samidoun, the Palestinian organization responsible for organizing it, got banned in less than week. People who have attended are being prosecuted by the authorities. While this doesn't ultimately solve the underlying problem - this needs more civic education efforts in certain school districts, for one thing - one shouldn't blow it out of proportion by saying that Muslim immigrants shouldn't have come to Germany. The political talk show Maybrit Illner featured two German citizens of Muslim descent tonight who were arguably more pro-Israel than I am.

(And I haven't adressed yet that these Samidoun folks are Marxist-Leninists, not Islamists, raising the point to what extent that "different culture and religion" stuff really applies here.)

[kelestian]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

Blaming antisemitism in Germany on immigrants is just hysterical.

Sometimes people just need to calm the f**k down. Yeah, the events on Neukölln on Saturday were bad. But Samidoun, the Palestinian organization responsible for organizing it, got banned in less than week. People who have attended are being prosecuted by the authorities. While this doesn't ultimately solve the underlying problem - this needs more civic education efforts in certain school districts, for one thing - one shouldn't blow it out of proportion by saying that Muslim immigrants shouldn't have come to Germany. The political talk show Maybrit Illner featured two German citizens of Muslim descent tonight who were arguably more pro-Israel than I am.

(And I haven't adressed yet that these Samidoun folks are Marxist-Leninists, not Islamists, raising the point to what extent that "different culture and religion" stuff really applies here.)

Oh, more civic education won't fix anything. It's clear that there are too many refugees from Turkey and Arabic World (not only from there) to assimilate. Even Russian Germans are not fully integrated, despite similar culture.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

Blaming antisemitism in Germany on immigrants is just hysterical.

Sometimes people just need to calm the f**k down. Yeah, the events on Neukölln on Saturday were bad. But Samidoun, the Palestinian organization responsible for organizing it, got banned in less than week. People who have attended are being prosecuted by the authorities. While this doesn't ultimately solve the underlying problem - this needs more civic education efforts in certain school districts, for one thing - one shouldn't blow it out of proportion by saying that Muslim immigrants shouldn't have come to Germany. The political talk show Maybrit Illner featured two German citizens of Muslim descent tonight who were arguably more pro-Israel than I am.

(And I haven't adressed yet that these Samidoun folks are Marxist-Leninists, not Islamists, raising the point to what extent that "different culture and religion" stuff really applies here.)

Oh, more civic education won't fix anything. It's clear that there are too many refugees from Turkey and Arabic World (not only from there) to assimilate.

These are merely declarative statements but no substantive arguments as to why this should be the case.

[CumbrianLefty]

And how many is "too many"? How is this quantified and who decides??

If certain individuals said "I don't like foreigners/brown people" it would at least be more honest.

[kelestian]

And how many is "too many"? How is this quantified and who decides??

If certain individuals said "I don't like foreigners/brown people" it would at least be more honest.

Number-wise? Who knows. Practically? If new emigrants are assimilated in German society, without creating separated social structures, without bringing their Homelands politics and grievances on German soil, without trying to bring and install different moral/ethic norms in communities, that's good enough. I'd say in Germany it is not as bad as in another European countries, but still.

Has nothing to do with race, I explicitly mentioned Russian-Germans as an example.

[President Johnson]

This gets a yikes from me:

"“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview..."

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel."

Blaming antisemitism in Germany on immigrants is just hysterical.

Anti-seminitism is a problem both among native German and immigrants, latter particulary among Muslim comminities of little education. Neither should be tolerated, though it needs different strategies for each to push back against it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Joke country
https://twitter.com/unitas_spiritus/status/1712903895612014595?t=0307NhrrgOkQ1eO...

[Estrella]

Joke country
https://twitter.com/unitas_spiritus/status/1712903895612014595?t=0307NhrrgOkQ1eO...

I wonder why.



Germany, like any other country, has plenty of people genuinely worried about the Palestinian people and plenty of Zyklon B enthusiasts who think they've now been proven right. It's probably justified to ban these protests because of frequent, er, incidents at similar protests elsewhere, at least right now. A second Charlottesville rally shouldn't be allowed either. As for the quoted tweet, people waving the Hakenkreuz at a supposedly anti-genocide protest, or doing Hitler salutes in Jewish museums, or tearing down pictures of missing Israeli children should (and hopefully will) have the book thrown at them without mercy. Have the police pay them a door-breaching visit at five in the morning, put the domestic ones on a watchlist and in jail and yes, put the foreign ones on a plane.