UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They won't have actually started counting properly yet, for whatever that's worth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They won't have actually started counting properly yet, for whatever that's worth.

I do actually think there's a decent chance that he's won comfortably as there's no reason for Labour supporters in a majority of the constituency to turn out and as the usual efforts to get them to do so will not have occurred, the Conservative government is deeply unpopular, the LibDems do not appear to have made any sort of effort (surprisingly), and as Danczuk's personal vote has already been measured and found to be rather low. But there's also a long history of grandiose claims being made early into a count that turn out to be wanting by the morning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout 39.7%. Not bad in the circumstances.

Suggests that the high number of postal votes applied for were actually used.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that looks rather... er... racialized. Though it was always going to.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He might but he won't do as well. But it's the sort of result that is a plausible springboard for contesting somewhere in the local elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder how many of Ali's votes were cast after he was drop-kicked? I suspect not many. It does seem to settle the question of what happens when a candidate is disendorsed in a by-election as opposed to a GE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mmm... relations with certain key people became very difficult when Respect broke up (I don't know the details), so he might have his reasons to avoid East Birmingham.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was Vice-Chamberlain of the Household for a while. It's a rather interesting post: the holder is usually the fourth ranking Government Whip, but also has the responsibility (no, duty) to provide the Monarch with the latest parliamentary gossip including things that, as they say, do not make the papers. Especially those.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

Boundary changes remove the Spotland & Falinge ward* which is unlikely to be to Galloway's advantage.

_{*Meaning that there will be enough of the town no longer in the constituency to be vaguely surprised they're not renaming it as Rochdale East & Littleborough.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but then what would they have called the other seat?

Since when have such considerations been an issue to the Boundary Commission?

I don't think the boundary change actually makes that much difference, though I agree that what difference it does make is not in Galloway's favour. It does make a difference in the aforementioned other seat, at least as far as the 2019 notional is concerned.

Yes, its demographic balance (in terms of the factors that will be preeminent like it or not, and I do not) is about average for the constituency, which means that removing it for no replacement tilts it a little away from its present balance rather than transforming everything. But worth noting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is an outside chance that there could be a by-election at Plymouth Moor View caused by surreal and hilarious circumstances. It may all be in the hands of Mr Mercer. We shall see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hazel Grove?

How bad is... it... exactly?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lawd