Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

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Former soccer player Ronaldinho Gaúcho will run for the senator of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far right Bolsonaro party

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Probably, Guilherme Boulos will be the PSOL candidate for president, and Sonia Guajajara will be her running mate. Guilherme Boulos is the leader of the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST). He is 35, the minimum age to run for president. Sonia Guajajara is the first native to be in a ticket.
Guilherme Boulos is not officially member of the PSOL yet, but he will join the party. PSOL is considered a party of the "university left" and the leader of a popular movement can help the party to leave the ivory tower.

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Bad news for Alckmin and Bolsonaro

Facebook removed lots of fake news pages controled by the far-right group MBL. Now, far-right judges want to sue Facebook.

It is ironic to see a pro-free enterprise and anti-state intervention group protesting against a private firm (Facebook) and trying to use the state justice against it

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The conventions deadline took place yesterday, the 13 candidates were decided. Here you can see the list of the candidates for president and vice president. I don't know the running mate of some very small candidates (and it doesn't matter)

Right-wing

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) / General Mourão (PRTB)
The far-right former army captain Jair Bolsonaro, who is leading the polls in which Lula is not mentioned, has a far right general as his running mate. Mourão has already said that the Brazilians are lazy like native americans and dishonest like africans

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) / Ana Amélia (PP)
The former governor or the state of São Paulo has the support of the biggest number of center-right and right parties, and so, he will have the biggest share of the TV advertising time. Most of the parties supporting Temer's admininstration are supporting Alckmin, so, he will be the "de facto" incumbent candidate. Ana Amélia is a very conservative senator from the south

Marina Silva (Rede) / Eduardo Jorge (PV)
The former environmentalist Marina Silva is running for the third time. I put her in the right-wing group because her economic advisers are very liberal (in the non-US meaning). Her running mate Eduardo Jorge is another environmentalist, who has more social liberal views

Henrique Meirelles (MDB) / Germano Rigotto (MDB)
Henrique Meirelles was the president of the Central Bank during Lula's administration and the Minister of Finance during Temer's administration. He is a very liberal (in the non-US meaning) economist. He is the "de jure" Temer's candidate. His job is helping Alckmin, holding Temer's low approval rates and trying to demonstrate that Alckmin is not Temer's candidate

João Amoedo (Novo)
He is the leader of a new liberal (in the non-US meaning) party

Álvaro Dias (Podemos) / Paulo Rabello de Castro (PSC)
Álvaro Dias is a senator from Paraná, state of the judge Sérgio Moro. He is the biggest supporter of Lava Jato. His former party was PSDB, but Dias wanted to go to a small party which is not related to corruption scandals.

José Maria Eymael (DC)
He is a very small candidate who runs in every election and has always very few votes (no more than 100k). He is famous because of the jingle "eeeymael, o democrata cristão"

Cabo Daciolo (Patriota)
Fireman from Rio de Janeiro, former PSOL congressman, but moved to the right


Left-wing

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) / Fernando Haddad (PT)
Lula will not be allowed to run, because he was sentenced. So, he will be replaced by former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad. Manuela Dávila (PCdoB) will become the running mate. Lula is leading the polls, but Haddad is still not able to hold Lula's numbers

Ciro Gomes (PDT) / Kátia Abreu (PDT)
Ciro Gomes wanted PT's endorsement, but PT decided to have its own candidate. Ciro is a former governor of the state of Ceará, he started his political career as a right-wing leader, but he moved to the left when he became older. Some far leftists don't believe that he moved to the left. His running mate Kátia Abreu is another former right-wing leader who moved to the left. She was the leader of the Brazilian Rural Association, than she became Dilma's Ministry of Agriculture

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) / Sônia Guajajara (PSOL)
The leader of the Homeless Movement will be the youngest candidate. He is 36. He is also a professor of Psychoanalysis. His running mate Guajajara is a native.

Vera Lúcia (PSTU)
PSTU is the trotskist party, the most left-wing party in Brazil

João Goulart Filho (PPL)
Son of former president João Goulart, ousted in the military coup of 1964. He is running for the first time and almost nobody know him.

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I'm pretty sure I want to marry Manuela d'Avila

Well, this picture of Manuela is better https://www.instagram.com/p/BloUB4igwLA/?hl=en&taken-by=manueladavila

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The debate was very boring. Ciro Gomes did a little better than the other ones.

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Today, there was the deadline for the candidates to apply to the Electoral Justice (TSE). PT registrered Lula candidate. Of course, in the next days, TSE will say that Lula cannot run, and PT will replace for Haddad.

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Considering that Germany is the richest country to have a multi-party system, let's compare the Brazilian candidates to the German parties, in order to understand easier the ideologies of the candidates.
If the Brazilian candidates were German, which would be their parties?

Cabo Daciolo (NPD)
Jair Bolsonaro (AFD)
José Maria Eymael (CDU)
Álvaro Dias (CSU)
João Amoedo (FDP)
Henrique Meirelles (FDP)
Geraldo Alckmin (CDU)
Marina Silva (Grünen - but she is a little bit to the right than the german greens)
Lula / Haddad (SPD)
Ciro Gomes (SPD)
Guilherme Boulos (Linke PDS)
Vera Lúcia (Linke Wasg)
João Goulart Filho (Linke PDS)

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Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

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The center-left is divided. Ciro Gomes supporters are trying to convince Haddad supporters that Ciro would beat Bolsonaro easier in the runoff. The right is divided too. Alckmin campaign is trying to convince that Bolsonaro could not defeat Haddad in the runoff, but Alckmin could. Some Alckmin supporters are trying to portray him as a centrist in order to convince the voters to avoid the "runoff of extremists". However, it is very hard to convince that Haddad is an extremist.

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Just to make some fun: which candidates would the famous economists endorse

François Quesnay: Jair Bolsonaro
Adam Smith: Álvaro Dias
David Ricardo: Geraldo Alckmin
John Stuart Mill: Marina Silva
Friedrich List: Cabo Daciolo
Karl Marx: Guilherme Boulos
Schumpeter: Geraldo Alckmin
John Maynard Keynes: Ciro Gomes
Michal Kalecki: Haddad
Raul Prebisch: Ciro Gomes
Paul Sweezy: Guilherme Boulos
Ludwig von Mises: Jair Bolsonaro
Friedrich Hayek: João Amoedo
Milton Friedman: João Amoedo
James Tobin: Haddad
John Kenneth Galbraith: Haddad

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No surprise Bolsonaro is polling better among the richest. He is the candidate of the rich people. Each class defends its interests.

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will Novo enter parliament?

I expect NOVO to get at least some federal deputies in states from the south and southeast like Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, specially in Minas, where their candidate for governor, Romeu Zema, has 7% in the polls is in third place.

Problably yes. São Paulo has 70 federal congressmen. So, there is one seat for ~1,4% of the total vote. Amoedo is polling ~3% in São Paulo. If everyone who votes for Amoedo votes for NOVO in the legislative election too, NOVO will win two seats in São Paulo.

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Details of the Ibope poll

Gender

Male
Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Fernando Haddad 22%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Female
Jair Bolsonaro 21%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 6%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Age

16-24
Jair Bolsonaro 27%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 15%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 8%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

25-34
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

35-44
Jair Bolsonaro 24%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 10%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

45-54
Jair Bolsonaro 28%
Fernando Haddad 22%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

over 55
Jair Bolsonaro 25%
Fernando Haddad 23%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%


School

less than 4 years elementary
Jair Bolsonaro 19%
Fernando Haddad 28%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 0%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

4-8 years elementary
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Fernando Haddad 26%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 11%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

High school
Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

College
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 16%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 6%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Income

Less than 1 minimum wage
Jair Bolsonaro 16%
Fernando Haddad 30%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Between 1 and 2 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 26%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Between 2 and 5 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

More than 5 minimum wages
Jair Bolsonaro 42%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 8%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Region

North/Center-West
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 20%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 4%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Northeast
Jair Bolsonaro 17%
Fernando Haddad 34%
Ciro Gomes 18%
Geraldo Alckmin 4%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 1%
Álvaro Dias 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Southeast
Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Fernando Haddad 16%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 10%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 1%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

South
Jair Bolsonaro 30%
Fernando Haddad 19%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Marina Silva 2%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 6%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Religion

Catholic
Jair Bolsonaro 24%
Fernando Haddad 25%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 4%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Evangelic
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Evangelic
Jair Bolsonaro 34%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 7%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%

Other
Jair Bolsonaro 29%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 11%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Marina Silva 5%
João Amoedo 3%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 3%
Guilherme Boulos 2%

Ethnic group

White
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Fernando Haddad 17%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 3%
João Amoedo 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 1%

Black
Jair Bolsonaro 25%
Fernando Haddad 24%
Ciro Gomes 13%
Geraldo Alckmin 8%
Marina Silva 6%
João Amoedo 2%
Álvaro Dias 2%
Henrique Meirelles 2%
Guilherme Boulos 0%