latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination:

Harris 18.2
O’Rourke 16.7
Warren 11.9
Biden 9.1
Sanders 7.2
Brown 7.0
Booker 6.4
Klobuchar 5.9
Gabbard 5.3
Gillibrand 4.8
Zuckerberg 3.7
Bullock 3.6

Republican nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 11.6
Haley 6.8
Kasich 4.2
Ryan 3.4

I'm a little shocked there aren't people speculating on Delaney and Ojeda, given they...you know, are actually running.

That seems like a thin distinction.  Some of the others are probably ~80-90% likely to officially declare, and are already running "shadow" campaigns.  The fact that, say, Harris hasn't officially launched her campaign yet while Delaney has is a matter of a formality.  That's priced into the market. 

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That seems like such an absurd scenario that it's not worth considering.  Dozens of potential candidates have signaled interest, though probably only about half of them may end up making it official.  But there's no way it's going to be zero of them making it official.  If enough of them declined, then that's all the more opening for the others to pull the trigger.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke up to 20 for the Democratic nomination, having retaken the lead:

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 20.0
Harris 18.5
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Sanders 7.8
Booker 6.4
Gabbard 5.9
Brown 5.3
Gillibrand 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8

Republican nomination:

Trump 73.3
Pence 11.6
Haley 5.6
Kasich 4.8
Ryan 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke gains some more, and Warren's down to 5th place.  Brown and Klobuchar now trading ahead of Booker and Gillibrand.

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 11.4
Sanders 8.5
Warren 7.0
Brown 6.8
Klobuchar 5.9
Booker 5.3
Winfrey 5.0
Gillibrand 4.8

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.6
Haley 6.2
Kasich 5.9
Romney 4.2

Four years ago today:

Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.4
Romney 11.1
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Perry 8.4
Cruz 7.2
Ryan 4.0
Pence 3.4
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

Warren has dropped all the way to 8th place for the Dem. nomination (though of course, there’s a huge amount of clustering in that range).

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 11.1
Sanders 8.8
Gillibrand 6.8
Brown 6.6
Booker 6.2
Warren 5.7
Klobuchar 4.8
Gabbard 4.5
Garcetti 3.7

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.6
Haley 9.5
Kasich 5.9
Romney 4.2

Four years ago at this time (yes, Clinton to win the Dem. nomination four years ago was trading slightly higher than Trump to win the GOP nomination now):

Dems
Clinton 70.9
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.8

GOP
Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Romney 11.9
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Cruz 8.8
Perry 8.1
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Harris is back in a tie with O’Rourke for 1st place, and Castro’s exploratory announcement puts him in 11th place:

Harris 22.2
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 14.7
Sanders 8.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 6.4
Brown 5.3
Warren 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8
Gabbard 4.5
Castro 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s alone in first again, and Klobuchar’s up to fifth place now:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 20.0
Biden 15.4
Sanders 10.0
Klobuchar 8.8
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 6.0
Brown 5.3
Warren 4.8

Four years ago today:

Bush and Walker gain as Romney sinks (now down to 6th place).

Democrats

Clinton 71.4
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
O'Malley 3.4
Gillibrand 3.1
Cuomo 2.5

Republicans

Bush 27.3
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Walker 10.5
Romney 9.5
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.8
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2764367#msg2764367

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Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1079820#msg1079820

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[Mr. Morden]

Both Trump and Pence have been dropping, with Trump now down to 61.9 to win the GOP nomination, and Pence tied with Haley for second place:

Democrats
O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 20.0
Biden 15.4
Sanders 10.0
Klobuchar 6.2
Warren 5.7
Gillibrand 5.4
Brown 5.3
Gabbard 5.3
Booker 3.8

Republicans
Trump 61.9
Haley 7.8
Pence 7.8
Kasich 5.7
Ryan 4.0
Romney 3.4
Sasse 3.3
Corker 1.9
Cotton 1.8
Rubio 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Warren’s announcement boosts her into a tie with Sanders for 5th place:

Democrats
O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 14.3
Sanders 10.5
Warren 10.5
Klobuchar 8.1
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 5.6

Republicans
Trump 61.9
Haley 8.1
Pence 7.5
Corker 6.6
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.2
Romney 3.4

Four years ago at about this time:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.4
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.6
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.8

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2772813#msg2772813

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Twelve years ago at about this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1087575#msg1087575

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[Mr. Morden]

Harris retakes the lead again, swapping places with O’Rourke.  Meanwhile, Warren’s post-announcement surge drops off, and her price declines, but Sanders declines even more, leaving Klobuchar in fourth place.

Democrats
Harris 22.2
O’Rourke 19.2
Biden 13.2
Klobuchar 8.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Warren 6.8
Brown 6.4
Sanders 6.4
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 4.5

Republicans
Trump 65.2
Haley 8.5
Pence 6.8
Kasich 5.7
Romney 4.3
Ryan 3.3
Sasse 2.5
Corker 2.4

Four years ago today:

Democratic nominee

Clinton 72.5
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
Gillibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Gore 2.9
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.9
Christie 9.5
Walker 9.5
Cruz 5.8
Perry 5.7
Huckabee 4.2
Ryan 3.7
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.3
Carson 1.9
Santorum 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard’s announcement actually boosted her to fourth place:

Democrats
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 13.2
Gabbard 9.1
Warren 7.2
Brown 6.4
Gillibrand 6.4
Klobuchar 6.4
Sanders 5.9
Winfrey 4.3
Booker 3.6
Castro 3.6

Republicans
Trump 65.2
Haley 8.5
Pence 7.0
Kasich 5.6
Romney 3.3
Ryan 2.9
Sasse 2.6
Rubio 2.5
Corker 2.1

Four years ago at this time:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Romney 13.1
Paul 12.8
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 21.7
Palin 10.5
Daniels 10.1
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.3
Pawlenty 6.7
Gingrich 4.8
Pence 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Trump 2.8
Bachmann 2.3
Barbour 2.2
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1097085#msg1097085

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[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand’s announcement only moves her up a little:

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 17.9
Warren 7.8
Gabbard 7.0
Gillibrand 6.8
Klobuchar 6.0

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 6.2
Romney 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Ryan 2.5
Corker 2.1

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nominee
Clinton 80.0
Warren 14.5
Biden 6.5

Republican nominee
Bush 29.6
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Walker 9.5
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic nominee
Obama 91.6
Clinton 5.5

Republican nominee
Romney 23.4
Palin 13.8
Huckabee 10.5
Thune 10.1
Daniels 8.5
Pawlenty 7.8
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 3.4
Bachmann 2.5
Barbour 2.5
Huntsman 2.1
Trump 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.7
Johnson 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair Exchange is peer-to-peer like PredictIt, and it has Sanders as low as anyone else.  Also, Sanders is at 11 on PredictIt right now, not 13.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 23.1
Biden 13.9
Gabbard 7.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.2
Gillibrand 5.7
Brown 5.6
Klobuchar 5.5

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 5.7
Kasich 5.6
Romney 3.8
Corker 2.8
Ryan 2.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democratic nominee
Clinton 75.2
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2
Gilllibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Cuomo 2.5
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee
Bush 29.2
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 13.1
Walker 10.9
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0
Ryan 3.1
Jindal 2.9
Pence 2.8
Martinez 2.2
Santorum 1.8

Eight years ago  on Intrade:

GOP nomination
Romney 21.1
Palin 13.6
Thune 11.7
Pawlenty 10.8
Huckabee 8.7
Daniels 8.0
Gingrich 4.3
Pence 3.5
Barbour 2.1
Giuliani 1.9
Bachmann 1.8
Christie 1.7
Paul 1.7
Huntsman 1.6
Trump 1.5

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1107586#msg1107586

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders gains (now back up to 4th place) as O’Rourke sinks:

Democratic nominee
Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 17.9
Biden 13.9
Sanders 8.1
Warren 6.8
Gabbard 6.4
Gillibrand 5.7
Brown 5.0
Klobuchar 4.8
Booker 3.4

Four years ago at this time:

Dems
Clinton 80.0
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2

GOP
Bush 28.0
Romney 16.3
Walker 14.9
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 8.4
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nomination
Romney 22.5
Thune 12.9
Palin 12.8
Huckabee 9.8
Pawlenty 9.8
Daniels 7.9
Gingrich 4.7
Bachmann 4.0
Barbour 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Giuliani 2.9
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.7
Trump 1.6
Johnson 1.5

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1109057#msg1109057

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s been dropping like a rock (O’Rock?).  Biden now ahead of him for 2nd place:

Harris 25.0
Biden 13.9
O’Rourke 13.2
Sanders 8.1
Warren 7.0
Brown 6.4
Gabbard 6.0
Klobuchar 5.6
Gillibrand 5.4
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Newsom 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Booker’s announcement bumps him back up to 7th place:

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
Biden 13.9
O’Rourke 11.4
Sanders 8.8
Warren 7.8
Brown 7.5
Booker 5.9
Gillibrand 5.7
Klobuchar 5.6
Gabbard 5.3

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 6.4
Kasich 5.0
Romney 3.8

Four years ago today:

Bush 30.0
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.4
Paul 11.4
Christie 7.2
Cruz 5.5
Perry 5.5
Huckabee 4.0
Pence 2.8
Jindal 2.2
Carson 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2804148#msg2804148

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Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1115434#msg1115434

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s Oprah interview has given him a big boost.  Now back in second place:

Democratic nominee
Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 16.7
Biden 13.9
Sanders 8.8
Booker 7.5
Brown 6.8
Klobuchar 6.8
Warren 6.6
Gillibrand 5.7

Republican nominee
Trump 69.2
Pence 7.0
Haley 6.6
Kasich 5.0
Romney 3.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Republicans
Bush 30.1
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 6.8
Perry 5.5
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 1.8
Jindal 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8
Pence 1.4
Romney 1.3

Eight years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2805654#msg2805654

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Twelve years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1120968#msg1120968

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[Mr. Morden]

This probably won't last, but for now Klobuchar's entry into the race has bumped her up to fourth place:

Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 16.1
Biden 14.3
Klobuchar 8.8
Sanders 8.1
Brown 7.2
Warren 7.2
Gabbard 6.0
Gillibrand 5.7

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's back up to a tie for 2nd place with O'Rourke:

Harris 26.3
Biden 16.1
O’Rourke 16.1
Klobuchar 8.8
Sanders 8.8
Brown 7.5
Warren 6.4
Booker 5.9

On the GOP side, there isn’t even a contract available for Weld yet, but Trump is actually *up* in recent days to 74.4.

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 76.9
Warren 9.5
Biden 3.3
Gillibrand 2.5

Republicans
Bush 31.0
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 13.1
Christie 5.4
Cruz 5.0
Perry 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Ryan 2.9
Carson 1.5

Eight years ago on Intrade:

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 23.1
Palin 10.9
Daniels 10.2
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Thune 8.0
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Christie 3.1
Barbour 2.7
Bachmann 2.6
Paul 2.1
Trump 1.8
J. Bush 1.6
Giuliani 1.5

Twelve years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1128140#msg1128140

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders’s entry into the race has bumped him into second place, and dropped O’Rourke down to fourth:

Harris 25.0
Sanders 16.7
Biden 15.4
O’Rourke 10.5
Brown 7.5
Klobuchar 7.2
Warren 6.8
Booker 5.7
Gabbard 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke teasing a decision has greatly boosted his price (now in 2nd with Biden):

Harris 25.0
Biden 17.9
O’Rourke 17.9
Sanders 16.1
Brown 7.5
Klobuchar 7.5
Warren 6.4

The GOP race four years ago at this point:

Bush 30.5
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.7
Paul 10.9
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Ryan 2.9
Pence 2.5

Eight years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2829440#msg2829440

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders has rebounded to second place, and has narrowed the gap with Harris:

Democratic nominee
Harris 23.1
Sanders 18.5
Biden 16.1
O’Rourke 15.2
Klobuchar 6.6
Brown 5.6
Booker 5.3
Warren 5.3
Gabbard 4.0

Republican nominee
Trump 73.3
Haley 5.3
Pence 4.8
Cotton 3.4
Kasich 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Brown out:

Harris 25.0
Sanders 19.2
Biden 17.9
O’Rourke 14.7
Booker 6.2
Klobuchar 5.7
Warren 4.8
Gabbard 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

Both Sanders and Biden are gaining, narrowing the gap with Harris:

Harris 23.1
Sanders 22.2
Biden 19.2
O’Rourke 14.3
Booker 4.8
Klobuchar 4.5
Warren 4.5
Gabbard 3.4