Los Angeles County Redistricting

[krazen1211]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-county-redistricting-20110928,0,4381836.story

The California rules suggest that no new Hispanic districts are required anywhere.

[Sbane]

The LA county supervisors are that powerful, huh? Even more powerful than the Supreme Court? Now if only they could strike down Citizens v. United.......

[Napoleon]

I've actually followed the Supervisors redistricting because the racial aspect has definitely made it one of the most interesting fights in the country. They should have eliminated Ridley-Thomas if they wanted a new Latino district instead of targeting the white liberal district. Apparently that wasn't on the table and more apparently Asians don't matter, only Latinos do.

[Sbane]

I don't see how a second Latino district isn't drawn in a county that is about 50% Latino.

What are the proposed maps like that get rid of the white liberal district? Which one? The 4th district really shouldn't exist.....though I don't see how a black district can exist either.

I think a San Fernando valley to Los Angeles downtown area plus a San Gabriel valley to the cities southeast of LA map should be drawn. It might push the Black district a little more north towards West Hollywood and surroundings. The 3rd should still take in most of that area, plus western LA county and take in the beach cities. That is a COI if there ever was one. Hmm....I might need to draw this out.

[Napoleon]

Im pretty sure you could make the black district Latino without disturbing the status quo too much. I don't know all that much about LA but from what I can tell COIs are preserved pretty well. Maybe some adjustment in the SGV would help. Asians seem to be content and they doing even have a seat that is 25%.

[Sbane]

http://ridley-thomas.lacounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Hispanic-Population-and-Supervisorial-District-Changes-1970-2011-Updated.pdf

Plan S2 looks the best to me....

As for splitting Asians, looks like all the maps splits them up so yeah...

The plan puts the working class to lower middle class San Gabriel Valley with the cities southeast of LA which are similar. The only cities I can see that don't belong are Walnut, Hacienda Heights, Rowland Heights and Diamond Bar. These are Asian areas which can be put together with other Asian areas but they are in the Republican 5th district now, and in all the proposed maps.

The other Latino district is ugly, yes, but it does put working class areas together. I wish the 3rd didn't have to take in Long Beach, especially the northern part, but it's actually a pretty solid COI. The 2nd takes in the black areas and other working class areas. This is the 3rd Latino district of the future, if certain demographic trends continue. How does this map separate white liberal areas? There just aren't that many in LA County. This is not the Bay Area.

[Sbane]

Im pretty sure you could make the black district Latino without disturbing the status quo too much. I don't know all that much about LA but from what I can tell COIs are preserved pretty well. Maybe some adjustment in the SGV would help. Asians seem to be content and they doing even have a seat that is 25%.

25% wow. Maybe I was wrong. I think if that 5th distict could take in the Diamond Bar area, everything would be good. I need to draw this it seems.

[Napoleon]

The entire 3rd district is white liberals and should be preserved, not diluted with right wingers from South Bay.

[Sbane]

Hmm, yes those white liberal areas in the 2nd should go in it then. The 2nd can take in Long Beach. LBC to Compton!

[Napoleon]

Lets post maps tomorrow and see what each of us comes up with. You probably know CA better but I'd like to give it a go and we can compare. Or LA can just start passing out black brown yellow or white ballots depending on what each voter looks like.

[jimrtex]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-county-redistricting-20110928,0,4381836.story

The California rules suggest that no new Hispanic districts are required anywhere.

http://redistricting.lacounty.gov/

Los Angeles County already has two Hispanic majority districts.

[muon2]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-county-redistricting-20110928,0,4381836.story

The California rules suggest that no new Hispanic districts are required anywhere.

http://redistricting.lacounty.gov/

Los Angeles County already has two Hispanic majority districts.

That's not what I read on the County Counsel staff report for A3 amended at the link you provided. It shows District 1 with HCVAP of 59.7% and no other district exceeding 34.0%.

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-county-redistricting-20110928,0,4381836.story

The California rules suggest that no new Hispanic districts are required anywhere.

http://redistricting.lacounty.gov/

Los Angeles County already has two Hispanic majority districts.

That's not what I read on the County Counsel staff report for A3 amended at the link you provided. It shows District 1 with HCVAP of 59.7% and no other district exceeding 34.0%.

The report, also, places the HCVAP at about 34%.  LA county may very well be 50% Hispanic, with two Hispanic majority districts, with a 34% HCVAP and one HCVAP-majority district. Neither 50% demands a third district, nor 34% demands a second district, barring some other circumstances.

[muon2]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-county-redistricting-20110928,0,4381836.story

The California rules suggest that no new Hispanic districts are required anywhere.

http://redistricting.lacounty.gov/

Los Angeles County already has two Hispanic majority districts.

That's not what I read on the County Counsel staff report for A3 amended at the link you provided. It shows District 1 with HCVAP of 59.7% and no other district exceeding 34.0%.

The report, also, places the HCVAP at about 34%.  LA county may very well be 50% Hispanic, with two Hispanic majority districts, with a 34% HCVAP and one HCVAP-majority district. Neither 50% demands a third district, nor 34% demands a second district, barring some other circumstances.

Good point. I was focused on CVAP since that is what CA uses in court.

[Sbane]

Here is my LA county supervisor's map. Waiting on you now, Napoleon.

All racial stats are in VAP.
1st district (blue)- 20.2% White, 4.8% Black, 62.2% Hispanic, 11.2 % Asian; Obama 76-24, Brown 73.8-26.2
2nd district (green)- 16.3% White, 25.2% Black, 45.9% Hispanic, 10.4% Asian; Obama 81.8-18.2, Brown 79.1-20.9
3rd district (purple)- 60.7% White, 3.8% Black, 16.7% Hispanic, 15.7% Asian; Obama 69.6-30.4, Brown 63-37
4th district (red)- 16.2% White, 3.7% Black, 67.7% Hispanic, 11.2% Asian; Obama 68.5-31.5, Brown 66.8-2.33.2
5th district (yellow)- 38.7% White, 5.4% Black, 27.5% Hispanic, 26.2% Asian; Obama 58.5-41.5, Brown 52.7-47.3

Let me know if you guys want zoomed in maps of any particular area.

[Napoleon]

Splitting Burbank and Glendale you bad boy

[bgwah]

Five seats for ten million people? Really?

[Sbane]

Splitting Burbank and Glendale you bad boy

Yes, Burbank was tricky to put somewhere. When there's only 5 seats for 10 Million people, sh**t happens. I was trying to make the 5th as Asian as possible, so Burbank couldn't go in it. Or else I could trade it in for some areas in the SGV.

I'll probably look into that later on to see how much it drops the Asian VAP.

[Napoleon]

District 1: 10.5% White/2.1% Black/77.1% Hispanic/9.1% Asian

Obama 79.7-McCain 20.3
Brown 79.8-Whitman 20.2

District 2: 5.7% White/24.8% Black/60.1% Hispanic/7.6% Asian

Obama 87.9-McCain 12.1
Brown 87.0-Whitman 13.0

District 3: 55.8% White/3.7% Black/21.8% Hispanic/14.7% Asian

Obama 69.0-McCain 31.0
Brown 62.4-Whitman 37.6

District 4: 26.9% White/5.3% Black/49.0% Hispanic/16.5% Asian

Obama 62.2-McCain 37.8
Brown 58.1-Whitman 41.9

District 5: 40.1% White/5.5% Black/30.8% Hispanic/20.7% Asian

Obama 61.3-McCain 38.7
Brown 55.2-Whitman 44.8

All population totals are for the entire population. VAP will be lower for Hispanics and higher for every other group in each district.

[Sbane]

And I thought my map was ugly. 60% Hispanic population probably is probably going to become something like 40%CVAP. Probably not acceptable. Your goal seems to be to make 5 Dem districts.

[Napoleon]

Well I wanted to try to keep the 2nd as Black as possible. If not, I'd rip it to shreds and make an Asian district about 40% or as high as I could.

[Sbane]

I put Burbank into the 5th and in exchange put the rest of El Monte (I had split to pick up some Asian heavy, but still Hispanic majority precincts), Hacienda Heights and Pomona in the 4th. I could then put East LA in the 1st. Worked out to be nicer than the first map, I think.

One of the consequences of this is that the Hispanic populations are more balanced in the two districts. The 1st is 66.7% VAP and the 4th is 64.4% VAP. The 5th becomes a little less Asian, but still 24.6% VAP. The 5th becomes a little white are 41.3% VAP.

[Sbane]

Well I wanted to try to keep the 2nd as Black as possible. If not, I'd rip it to shreds and make an Asian district about 40% or as high as I could.

That's why you need to include the SGV, including West Covina and Azusa, as well as Pomona in the Latino district, and take out Long Beach. I tried to keep similar income areas together as well.

Well, Long Beach just doesn't belong anywhere, haha. It's a mix of everything.

[Napoleon]

Long Beach would make it less Black.

[Sbane]

Yours is 24.8% Black, and mine is 24.2% Black. And it's 25.2% VAP. Not a big difference. Long Beach is actually 13.5% Black, which is above the county average of 8% Black.

Your Latino district is in the wrong place basically. You cannot go east of the 110 freeway south of downtown. There aren't that many Blacks there. The 2nd needs to be a Black/Latino opportunity district. The SGV and southeast LA County is where the bulk of the Latino population is, as well as downtown, areas just adjacent to it and the SFV, which is where the 1st Latino district should go.