2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Gass3268]

We had a hype thread in 2016, figured 2020 could use one as well.

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1175077683979530242?s=20

[Gass3268]

Selzer laid a nice steamer before 2016 Iowa caucus

She was off bad on the Republican side, but was only off by about 2.5 on the Democratic side.

[Gass3268]

New qualifying poll coming tomorrow from New Hampshire:

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1176156401460232192

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1195023832303767552?s=20

[Gass3268]

IOWA POLL!

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1215317609366859776?s=20

[Gass3268]

Might be a CNN poll coming as well. We just gone Trump/Impeachment numbers.

[Gass3268]

DMR will release a final Iowa poll on Feb. 1, two days before the Iowa caucus.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/23/final-iowa-poll-on-2020-democratic-presidential-candidates-to-be-released-feb-1/4552569002/

That's gonna be scary.

And I think their endorsement is announced this Saturday. Polling has suggested that a lot of Democrats aren't 100% sure with their choice yet and newspaper endorsements tend to matter more in Democratic nominating contests.

[Gass3268]

Also, it's gonna be part of a CNN TV special, lol!

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1220401764958134275?s=20

[Gass3268]

Any word on when the final DMR Iowa poll is coming out?

I think I've heard Feb. 1, but don't have a source for that.

Yeah, pretty sure it will be this Saturday evening. Same time they announced their endorsement. That way it can be on the cover of the Sunday paper the day before the caucuses.

[Gass3268]

Woof! Maybe they'll have it figured out by tomorrow?

[Gass3268]

Does anyone seriously believe that an independent pollster would not release a poll because they are somehow trying to harm a candidate? Polls don't decide the actual results of an election and I'm not even sure they effect turnout. Some of the responses to this poll being canceled are legitimately crazy.

Thank you.

[Gass3268]

Does anyone seriously believe that an independent pollster would not release a poll because they are somehow trying to harm a candidate? Polls don't decide the actual results of an election and I'm not even sure they effect turnout. Some of the responses to this poll being canceled are legitimately crazy.

Thank you.

No.  This is CNN.  The poll was bad for establishment candidates so they junked the poll.  CNN just didn't want to give free promotion to Bernie Sanders.  

Just stop.

No.  Release the poll.  Stop citing establishment warhawks.  CNN not releasing the poll makes sense.  The DNC is trying to cheat Sanders with rule changes, and CNN is once again cheating Sanders supporters by not releasing the poll.  They need to be transparent.  Show us the results.  They hyped it all day and now they just suddenly decided not release the results.  It's frig'n fraud.  Maybe you're comfortable with it, but I am not.  

Dude, chill.

[Gass3268]

I'm terrified that the new reporting app that the Iowa Democrats are going to use on caucus night is going to crash.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1223813090103431168?s=20

[Gass3268]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

I really think the over representation of rural areas when it comes to SDEs is going to greatly help Biden. This is also why, smartly, the Sanders camp is planning on using the first alignment as the official result of the night on whether or not to claim victory.

[Gass3268]

Are we going to get any actual good polls of New Hampshire?

Don't worry we'll probably get bumper sticker poll from Nevada.

[Gass3268]

Data Progress is polling Nevada right now.

They were very good in IA and NH. Hopefully they are able do do another after the debate however.

[Gass3268]

No new Polls will be apparently released on any of the Sunday Talk Shows! Meh!!!!

At this point, a conspiracy of qualifying pollsters withholding the release of national polls to prevent Bloomberg from debating sounds somewhat plausible. There are only three days left!

If Bloomberg wanted to debate, he could simply finance some polls for the media.

I don't think he does particularly want to debate though, because he would be attacked and not be particularly good at defending himself. Better from his perspective to just run more ads instead, because he controls the content of his ads.

My guess is that even if he got invited, he would skip them.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1229449777676460032

Who the heck needs a VA Poll? We need SC & NV!

I mean VA votes a couple of days after SC, it wouldn't be the worst thing to get some kind of poll from there.

We need polls from basically every Super Tuesday state other than California and Texas, and we could even use more of those.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/stowydad/status/1230900030242000896?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1233066599067856898?s=21

Wondering if they poll the state supreme court race that's also on April 7

There's not enough public knowledge of that race yet to get an accurate poll.

[Gass3268]

Data for Progress will release its SC poll sometime tonight:

https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1232762145072467969

What’s their definition of tonight?

[Gass3268]

I wouldn't expect the media to pay for a lot more polls of the primary unless Sanders has a shocking resurgence in the upcoming contests. They're expensive and the race is pretty much over.

Data for Progress and universities being the exceptions.

[Gass3268]

Iowa Poll!

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1271442599774167042?s=20

[Gass3268]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

I imagine they want the Trump number to debut with the Sunday paper tomorrow.