2020 Poll Hype Thread

[republican1993]

i'm getting nervous joe biden got this locked up :/ ugh i hope NC is a good poll for trump tomorrow, NC needs to be locked up for trump soon.

[republican1993]

ONU/BW/Oakland U in the field in OH, WI, MI, and PA, UNF in the field in FL

What were the results the last time they polled these states in OH, WI, MI, PA?

[republican1993]

i hope trumps ahead in florida.

[republican1993]

Monmouth had clinton + 5 in same time period in 2016 fyi

[republican1993]

since it's ABC i'm expecting like Minnesota + 10 biden and Wisconsin +9 biden

[republican1993]

i'm just depressed with all the bad polls so im expecting the worst but hope they are closer for turmp.

[republican1993]

New Monmouth Arizona Poll tomorrow - i'm predicting +6 Biden

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1308784436427796480

prob like +8 or +9 their last one was + 10

[republican1993]

ABC/Wapo released part of their poll today, so I assume the prez toplines are imminent this weekend

exciting! they are the pollster i trust the most especially after 2016.

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

did they nationally poll as they were doing their state polling? their state polling was super d- friendly in my opinion. i'm hoping for the best

[republican1993]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I hope this looks good for trump just based on the state polls + abc's track record on national polling it's spot on compared to NBC and CBS.

[republican1993]

So Biden maintains a substantial lead in both states and voters there by a wide margin want the winner of the next election to pick the SCOTUS nominee.  Seems like nothing is moving the numbers and a lot of people are already voting in Wisconsin.  Barring some epic change in the dynamics of the race it seems like Trump is going to lose both states.

Dane county looks energized based on early voting but the MIW suburbs look energized too - i think Wisconsin will won in the southwest part whoever takes it & how trump does around the rest of the state. MIW looks slow with counting but i am curious how we will be with returning by late october

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1310585473857990657?s=19

Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1310585473857990657?s=19

Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

I'll go the opposite and say +5/6. 

No reason.  I just like being a troublemaker. 

I hope so

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1310656798785966082

Might be getting a NYT/Siena one too:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310660089527795716?s=20
Map looks like a decent Biden lead.

cant wait to see the PA + 10 or more poll from NY times

[republican1993]

NY Times Poll: Biden+ 2 Florida, PA +5 Biden (hope for trump up however in FL)

[republican1993]

There are some recently polling showing Trump either take the lead or closing the gap a bit in swing states. Some better head-to head polling, too. I caution those already celebrating a Biden win.

A blue wave is happening, Cassidy in LA is under 50 LA can go to a runoff

and if it goes to a run off he wins anyways with lower turnout

[republican1993]

I bet it was the iowa poll that showed a tie - such a heart wrenching poll us republicans really did not want to see!! LOL so unexpected

[republican1993]

The gig is up on trafalgar.  Totally figured out how they manipulate the numbers.   Look at the last page every report.  It gives you the relative % of the poll by congressional district.  In EVERY case the lower percentage districts are the democratic districts.   They over sample and then cut back the dem districts to give the narrative they want. Trump by 2 in Florida is amazing news bc that means Biden is truly ahead.

yup we all know he's up 5 points in florida 

[republican1993]

TX is next in line:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319627897905291265

I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX

where are they favorable to R's..............

[republican1993]

Nate is teasing us on the polls tomorrow and I'm a bit turned on

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#trump-gets-his-best-poll-of-the-cycle-heres-how-to-put-it-in-perspective

No other indications of a last-minute surge. There’s another respect in which the Selzer poll is a bit of an outlier: It shows Mr. Trump gaining seven points compared with its prior survey. Four years ago, the Selzer poll was not alone in showing Mr. Trump picking up three points compared to a prior poll in early October, after the first debate.

This year, there’s not any other indication of a seven-point swing toward Mr. Trump, and there’s no reason to expect it either. The news environment doesn’t seem to have changed. The coronavirus spike is still the biggest national story, and I wouldn’t expect that to help the president. Maybe the final wave of polls over the next couple of days will hint at a shift, but for now there isn’t one.

Pennsylvania. Don’t let Iowa make you lose sight of the most important state in the election: Pennsylvania. We got an additional data point there today from Muhlenberg College, which showed Mr. Biden with a five-point lead in the state. That’s slightly better for Mr. Trump than our average or its last poll of the state about a week ago, when Mr. Biden led by seven points. These sample sizes are small, so this kind of change could very easily just be noise. But I do think the majority of telephone polls in Pennsylvania over the last week or two have shown a subtle shift toward Mr. Trump. We’ll get a lot more from Pennsylvania on Sunday or Monday.

So unless he's totally throwing us off, I expect a Biden +4-6 result in PA, maybe a Biden +5 in AZ, Biden up by a couple points in Florida, and a pretty good Biden result in Wisconsin, +8-10.

which in reality won't be even the end result so why does it matter? florida will be decided by a point