NEW AP POLL - Bush +1% - Nader @ 6%

[dunn]

Based on historical data my prediction is George W. will be defeated. Woodrow Wilson was the only elected incumbent president to win by less than 5% (and that was an extraordinary era), all the other elected incumbents have won by landslides. If an incumbent is tied, he is really behind.

Hmmm, are we forgetting about Truman?

Be serious Supersoulty, Truman won by like 4.48% and it too was a unique election with the dixiecrat Thurmond taking a percent or so from him and a few states.

It is a valid point, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Johnson, Truman (would have if it wasn't for the dixie crats) , FDR, Coolidge, TR, McKinley, remember the last incumbent to barely win the popular vote (excepting Wilson)  (i think) was good ole Grover Cleveland and he lost in the electoral college.

I think we can all agree that we won't be having a strong enough third party to get an Electoral Vote (unless Roy Moore runs, run Roy run!!!). So i think  zachman is perfectly legitmate to point out this valid trend that incumbents win overwhelming unless there is a strong third party garnering electoral votes.

If you want supersoulty we will change the line too:  4.45% would that make you feel better?

Clinton ?
No winning incumbent won less % of pv then him. ever

[dunn]

Don't forget, the republicans have won california in six of the last ten presidential contests.  With Kim Jung Il's recent Kerry endorsement and with Mayor Newsom's bitch brigade running roughshod over state law, don't be surprised if it becomes 7 of 11.

6 of 10 but 0 for 3 last 3 elections. Akk double digits losses

[dunn]

Don't forget, the republicans have won california in six of the last ten presidential contests.  With Kim Jung Il's recent Kerry endorsement and with Mayor Newsom's bitch brigade running roughshod over state law, don't be surprised if it becomes 7 of 11.

6 of 10 but 0 for 3 last 3 elections. Akk double digits losses

CA has been the home state of the GOP nominee in 4 of this 6 wins.

Technicly speaking Nixon home state in 68' and 72' was NY , he moved there in 63'-64 to open a law firm. o/c his true home was California

[dunn]

Don't forget, the republicans have won california in six of the last ten presidential contests.  With Kim Jung Il's recent Kerry endorsement and with Mayor Newsom's bitch brigade running roughshod over state law, don't be surprised if it becomes 7 of 11.

6 of 10 but 0 for 3 last 3 elections. Akk double digits losses

CA has been the home state of the GOP nominee in 4 of this 6 wins.

Technicly speaking Nixon home state in 68' and 72' was NY , he moved there in 63'-64 to open a law firm. o/c his true home was California

This site says it was CA again in 1972. I know it was NY formally for 1968, but I didn't count that...

well it was formally. 72' too I think