Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Every time there's a surprising or lopsided election result, some people will say that one of the parties is headed for a permanent majority.  I've seen this claim at least half a dozen times over the years.  It hasn't happened yet, and it's not likely to happen in the future.

And it usually only takes one election cycle to disabuse observes of such absurdities

See:

1964->1968

1972->1976

2004->2006/08

2008->2010

2012->2014/16

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

I mean, this is an obvious troll, but wouldn't it be a pretty bad thing for them to be a permanent minority if the overwhelming majority of Americans wanted them to control the House?

[JA]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

I mean, this is an obvious troll, but wouldn't it be a pretty bad thing for them to be a permanent minority if the overwhelming majority of Americans wanted them to control the House?

Only if you believe in democracy.

[GGover]

Trump's approval is falling rapidly in the last few days according to the 538 tracker.

The RCP average also shows a significant decrease within a short-time span.

Looks like Trump's floor is slowly but steadily getting lower.

Strange, I don't think Trump has done anything truly horrible in the past few days. I don't like him at all, but this seems to be a pretty neutral week so far. Is this delayed fall out from the health care failure?

[GGover]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

[Virginiá]

Needing 58%, or a margin higher than even the 1974 Watergate backlash is something I'll really have to see to believe. And while I say this as a partisan I also say it as someone who cares about stability in America - I really hope we don't see something like that, because having a pseudo-permanent GOP House majority built on the back of a broken system is a great way for a lot of Americans to genuinely lose faith in our system of government. By no means are we guaranteed a safe, stable and prosperous society. We have to work together to keep it this way, and if one group in the country is so greedy for power that they would maintain a crooked system like that, then violence is sure to ensue at some point. I say this knowing full well that if that study was right and Democrats have basically no chance, then the GOP will not only refuse to fix it but will defend such a system until it no longer benefits them.

Of course, even while I agree Democrats need a substantial win in the House PV to win even a slim majority, I think it's more around 7% or so, not 15 - 20%. I would expect that once Republicans lose their majority or find it greatly diminished, it will be easier to maintain/win a majority in the future as Republicans will no longer have a large incumbency advantage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval is falling rapidly in the last few days according to the 538 tracker.

The RCP average also shows a significant decrease within a short-time span.

Looks like Trump's floor is slowly but steadily getting lower.

Strange, I don't think Trump has done anything truly horrible in the past few days. I don't like him at all, but this seems to be a pretty neutral week so far. Is this delayed fall out from the health care failure?

The revelation that Trump dictated his son's misleading statement about the meeting with the Russians may be a factor as well.  This could have been the final straw for some supporters who previously thought there may have been some Russian involvement by other people in the campaign, but that Trump wasn't personally involved.

[Dr. Arch]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

No, so long as he doesn't drag us down with him more than he already has.

[Virginiá]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

In a way, we should want him to succeed, because that would be good for the country, but personally I have no hope for him anyway and I believe the agenda of Congressional Republicans will only continue to hurt this country, so wanting him to fail is by extension wanting Democrats to succeed next year. In that sense, I feel no regrets.

[GGover]

Trump's approval is falling rapidly in the last few days according to the 538 tracker.

The RCP average also shows a significant decrease within a short-time span.

Looks like Trump's floor is slowly but steadily getting lower.

Strange, I don't think Trump has done anything truly horrible in the past few days. I don't like him at all, but this seems to be a pretty neutral week so far. Is this delayed fall out from the health care failure?

The revelation that Trump dictated his son's misleading statement about the meeting with the Russians may be a factor as well.  This could have been the final straw for some supporters who previously thought there may have been some Russian involvement by other people in the campaign, but that Trump wasn't personally involved.

Oh wow, Trump does so many stupid things that I completely forgot that happened.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think this is one of those troughs in Trump's numbers and he'll be back up to 40/55 or so once the narrative switches to tax reform or this immigration act's passage through congress. Once the relentless bad news of this past week wears off he'll swing back up a bit. The problem is that this cratering means the soft supporters will be much quicker to shed support the next time Trump has a bad cycle.

60% disapprove is really, really bad though.

[Brittain33]

For the first time, Trump conclusively failed to deliver on a promise that was important to a large chunk of his base. Trump can lie all he wants about economic growth, other countries fearing the U.S., etc. but there's no sugar-coating this one.

Unless Trump delivers on some other major Republican priority, he's going to permanently disappoint a part of his base that has backed him up until now.

[JA]

For the first time, Trump conclusively failed to deliver on a promise that was important to a large chunk of his base. Trump can lie all he wants about economic growth, other countries fearing the U.S., etc. but there's no sugar-coating this one.

Unless Trump delivers on some other major Republican priority, he's going to permanently disappoint a part of his base that has backed him up until now.

The interesting question is which part of his base has he particularly upset by failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Arguably, it's the more fiscally conservative wing of the party, with which he likely had the shakiest support in the first place. If he falters on tax reform as well, while succeeding, even if symbolically, with immigration restrictions, abolishing affirmative action, and so on, then his more socially conservative base will likely hold steady while his support among fiscal conservatives further collapses.

[Brittain33]

For the first time, Trump conclusively failed to deliver on a promise that was important to a large chunk of his base. Trump can lie all he wants about economic growth, other countries fearing the U.S., etc. but there's no sugar-coating this one.

Unless Trump delivers on some other major Republican priority, he's going to permanently disappoint a part of his base that has backed him up until now.

The interesting question is which part of his base has he particularly upset by failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Arguably, it's the more fiscally conservative wing of the party, with which he likely had the shakiest support in the first place. If he falters on tax reform as well, while succeeding, even if symbolically, with immigration restrictions, abolishing affirmative action, and so on, then his more socially conservative base will likely hold steady while his support among fiscal conservatives further collapses.

Interesting. That would mean that GA-6 might vote differently later than it did in June.

[Tintrlvr]

For the first time, Trump conclusively failed to deliver on a promise that was important to a large chunk of his base. Trump can lie all he wants about economic growth, other countries fearing the U.S., etc. but there's no sugar-coating this one.

Unless Trump delivers on some other major Republican priority, he's going to permanently disappoint a part of his base that has backed him up until now.

The interesting question is which part of his base has he particularly upset by failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Arguably, it's the more fiscally conservative wing of the party, with which he likely had the shakiest support in the first place. If he falters on tax reform as well, while succeeding, even if symbolically, with immigration restrictions, abolishing affirmative action, and so on, then his more socially conservative base will likely hold steady while his support among fiscal conservatives further collapses.

I am not so certain that the opponents of the ACA are mostly "fiscal conservatives". There are certainly some who oppose it from a fiscal conservative perspective, but my impression is that the negative views of the ACA are more emotional, about resistance to government control (especially the individual mandate), giveaways to "those people" (whoever they are, but important that they are perceived as undeserving and that giveaways to those who are deserving would be okay), etc. I think that group dovetails also with a lot of what you are calling social conservatives (though these people don't necessarily have traditionally socially conservative views - they may not care about abortion or drugs or religion much) for whom Obama was culturally anathema and who are deeply distrustful of government generally, not from a spending perspective, but because they think government (or at least government by Democrats) is trying to socially engineer them and society more broadly.

Tax reform is a different animal. On that, I agree, the fiscal conservative and business wing is all about tax cuts (and really only cares about tax cuts), and, if tax cuts fail, they will be furious with Trump.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Only if the Republicans kill democracy.

[Inmate Trump]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

Nah.

No one can look away from a car crash.  It's the same concept.

[The_Doctor]

Notably, he's now inching towards the 60s in disapproval. This is a definite uptick and we'll see if it's the new permanent.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

Lol. The crashing across the board is hilarious.

Is Trump going to have a heart attack when he keeps seeing these brutal numbers?

[pbrower2a]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

It gives at most a grim satisfaction. I predict that we will see a significant change in American political culture. Maybe we will be more critical about facile slogans.

[Virginiá]

Is Trump going to have a heart attack when he keeps seeing these brutal numbers?

Trump has proven to be very good at ignoring anything that challenges his preconceived notion of himself. When the polls are good, they are real and touted as proof of his success, and when they are bad, they are nothing but fake trash. It's really that simple in his head. Only he knows what goes on in his own mind, but it's quite possible that he truly sees it that way, and he isn't just putting up a front for the world to see.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

I wonder if Trump surrounding himself with "yes men" Generals will add some stability with his administration moving forward? Hopefully for him it'll keep the petty infighting to a minimum (Trump's outbursts notwithstanding).

Only time will tell.

I hope so.

The bar is so low at this point that it could actually work in trump's favor. Everybody expects a sh**tty product, so when the product is average, it is like the heavens have opened up.

[Matty]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

Graham bashed a few aspects of it, but a version of it could certainly get through. Increase the amount admitted, get rid of english requirement, and it could maybe get through.