State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

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It's really just futile overall to make extrapolations for 2022 from a special election that took place under both pandemic and blizzard conditions and pre-redistricting, none of which are likely to be the case in November 2022. However, Dems underperforming 2018 but overperforming 2020 is probably not the worst case scenario for them.

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Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?

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Piping in here to point out that there are no margins of error in actual election results.

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Special election happening tonight in Iowa HD-37, district is just north of Des Moines entirely within Polk county. Went from 55/43 Romney to 51/42 Trump to 50/48 Trump. Incumbent Republican John Landon died in July. He defeated Dem Andrea Phillips (who is the Dem nominee in the special) 53/47 in 2020 and by 57/43 in 2016. He defeated a different Dem candidate 52/48 in 2018.

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With 12/12 precincts reporting according to the Polk county auditor, Republican Mike Bousselot appears to have won 52/48, the same margin by which the Republican won this seat in 2018, and a modest D improvement over 2020's result at the state house level.

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What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.

Youngkin idiotically announced his abortion ban proposal a solid month before this special election, giving Democrats ample time to use it and use it well.

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Looks like last night's VA results continued the November 2022 patterns of Republicans overperforming in safe D areas but Democrats showing enormous resilience in more competitive areas. The Dem overperformance in the safe R seat is a bit new and we'll need to see if that becomes a pattern as well or is restricted only to special elections.

This dynamic is a mixed bag for Andy Beshear who will need rock solid margins and likely even overperformances in Kentucky's solid blue counties to win re-election (though overperforming in safe R areas, assuming that pattern holds, will help him enormously).

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DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.

https://twitter.com/Hawkins4florida/status/1656416512045989889?s=20

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DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.

https://twitter.com/Hawkins4florida/status/1656416512045989889?s=20

I think you mean eastern.

Yes, thanks.