First of all, I highly recommend reading this piece by Nate Cohn on why the polls may be off by more in Georgia than in other states, due to the changes in the population, the way many pollsters peg estimates to the Census, and how VR can impact this as well:
Why Georgia May Be Bluer Than It Appears
While I did an exposé using the VAN a while back - which suggested that VR rates were actually below 2010 levels - it turns out that the system simply hadn't been updated. The reality couldn't contrast more.
Georgia has added in 2014 alone 212,000 new registered voters - with estimates suggesting 40,000 - 60,000 more still waiting to be processed (some being submitted months ago and still not showing up in the system). The broader trends in the state have been strong enough to have shrunk the white share of RVs from 63% in 2010 to 58% as of October 7th.
AJC analysis: Georgia sees surge in voter rollsHow does this stack up to historical trends?
There is simply no comparison when looking at changes in voter registration between a presidential year and the following mid-term elections. Let's look at the first graph I've made, which shows the number of active registered voters in the state immediately before each election (1998-2014):
While not the single biggest increase in registered voters between any two election cycles,
it is still the biggest increase in registered voters between a presidential and a mid-term in the 50 years of recorded stats on file with the SoS - by a metric ton. Speaking of which, let's take a look at changes over those 50 years in the voter rolls:
There have only been four instances in the past 50 years in which the number of RVs increases in a mid-term cycle when compared to two years prior (1966, 1998, 2006 and 2014). In every other case, voter rolls contracted in Georgia.
And finally, the most visually-stunning graph that drives the point home.
How many net active registered voters in total have been added over this two-year period when compared to every other cycle?It isn't even close.
Georgia has literally added twice as many voters during this mid-term cycle as any other mid-term cycle in modern history (310,000). The Dem wave is building!