Washington state megathread

[RI]

Sam Reed should take on Cantwell in 2012 with McKenna for governor. That would be the strongest ticket Washington Republicans have put up in quite a long time.

One of the main reasons Sam Reed is popular is because he is not seen as ideological in almost any way. Why do you think he does so well in Olympia? It's not just because he's from there; it's also because he doesn't associate himself with conservatism. If we was a conservative running who was from Olympia, he'd lose Thurston County easily. He just runs on doing the job of SoS, which should be a pretty non-ideological position. If Reed runs for the Senate, he would have to take positions on every issue. Chances are, either liberals or conservatives are really not going to like what happens then.

At this point, it might be better to go the other way around. McKenna has already started to take ideological positions with his opposition to health care reform. Governor is a much less ideological position than Senator, and Reed might have a good chance at winning it.

[bgwah]

A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.

[redcommander]

A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.

What would they prefer though? Blowing a chance at gaining the Governor's mansion or a senate seat? Or putting up an ideologue? I actually think realisticidiot has a point that maybe Reed should run for governor, and McKenna for senate.

[bgwah]

A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.

What would they prefer though? Blowing a chance at gaining the Governor's mansion or a senate seat? Or putting up an ideologue? I actually think realisticidiot has a point that maybe Reed should run for governor, and McKenna for senate.

McKenna isn't stupid. He wants to win, and he has a much better chance if he runs for Governor.

[Ogre Mage]

Kudos to Sen. Murray -- she has crafted a video for Dan Savage's "It Gets Better" project:

http://www.itgetsbetter.org/video/entry/2595/

[CultureKing]

And Washington gets its 10th district! Here's hoping for an Olympia-based district.

[bgwah]

And Washington gets its 10th district! Here's hoping for an Olympia-based district.

It seems most logical to me. The South Sound is such a mess right now.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I meant to say this earlier, but....




WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   

[redcommander]

I meant to say this earlier, but....




WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I meant to say this earlier, but....




WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

Why are you so sure that there will be a new district?  There will be 10 new districts, some of which may bear some resemblance to the current 9.

[Alcon]

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

Precedent says that it will be WA-3 that crosses along the Columbia River, making Herrera safe.  I think chances are pretty decent the new district will be centered around Olympia, although the entire South Sound is such a mess it's hard to say.

My guess is that the interesting stuff here will be what's done with the Pierce County hinterlands, most notably Smith's district (WA-9), which could find Republican areas dumped into it.  That, or the new WA-10 may take in the exurban southern parts of Pierce County.  I don't think there's gonna be any clean way of going about it.  The numbers worked out pretty well for the redistricting commission back in 2000 (look how clean the West/East divide was) and the current WA-9 is still pretty incoherent.  I think the most likely result is:

* WA-1 stays safe D, although might move into strong lean D if it shifts north
* WA-2 gets marginally more lean D
* WA-3 goes to lean R
* WA-4 stays very safe R
* WA-5 goes from safe R to very safe R
* WA-6 probably remains strong lean D
* WA-7 basically becomes permanently D>80%
* WA-8 becomes a district Reichert might not have won in 2010
* WA-9 and WA-10 lean somewhat D together, but the details probably depend on what happens with Olympia leaving the 3rd and Pierce County losing its chunk of the 8th; as well as possibly how the Tacoma part of the 6th is handled.

bgwah has looked at this more closely and might be more helpful.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I meant to say this earlier, but....




WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!  

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

Well we still have a Democratic State Legislature.  And anyways, we get one more electoral vote!  

[bgwah]

With Inslee running for Governor, hopefully they won't feel the need to keep northern Kitsap County in the 1st district.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

[bgwah]

After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

The city itself leans D, sure. The suburbs (like Spokane Valley) are very Republican though. I would guess they have more to do with making the county R than the rural areas, though I'm sure those contribute, too.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

Did Murray loose Spokane this time around?  I wouldn't be surprised if she did.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

The city itself leans D, sure. The suburbs (like Spokane Valley) are very Republican though. I would guess they have more to do with making the county R than the rural areas, though I'm sure those contribute, too.

I did some calculations and without the rural areas, Murray would have got 46 to 47% depending on your definition of rural compared to the 43.7% she got. I'd argue that the rural areas are what make Spokane County lean R as opposed to a tossup/almost bellwether county though.

[Alcon]

This is how I broke down Spokane County.  Murray won Spokane, but the suburbs (slightly more than the rural areas but not by much) were the deciding factors.  I basically treated anything not subdivided as a rural area, even though areas like Otis Orchards really are Spokane suburbs with suburb-sized lots on exurban grids.

City of Spokane (41%) Murray 38,385 (52.1%); Rossi 35,264 (47.9%)
Suburbs outside of City (35%) Murray 25,262 (39.6%); Rossi 38,490 (60.4%)
Rural (20%) Murray 12,291 (33.9%); Rossi 24,017 (66.1%)
Small towns (4%) Murray 3,046 (44.1%); Rossi 3,857 (55.9%)

[Alcon]

So, I was bored and did a quick analysis of the Dem/Rep performance change in the General, minus the Primary.  So, basically, this is an estimate of the partisan make-up of the new ballots between the 2010 General and 2010 Primary (less motivated voters and some mind-changers).  Everything is in % Murray

San Juan: 69.4%
Jefferson: 68.1%
King: 68.1%
Thurston: 58.5%
Whatcom: 58.4%
Overall: 56.4%
Island: 55.1%
Snohomish: 55.0%
Kitsap: 53.3%
Pacific: 51.8%
Pierce: 51.8%
Skagit: 51.5%
Grays Harbor: 51.1%
Mason: 49.2%
Clallam: 48.8%
Skamania: 48.7%
Whitman: 48.4%
Franklin: 48.3% (!!!)
Cowlitz: 48.1%
Clark: 48.1%
Spokane: 46.7%
Okanogan: 46.6%
Klickitat: 45.8%
Chelan: 45.3%
Benton: 44.7%
Yakima: 44.7%
Kittitas: 44.3%
Walla Walla: 44.2%
Ferry: 43.8%
Wahkiakum: 43.6%
Pend Oreille: 40.1%
Adams: 37.5%
Douglas: 36.9%
Lincoln: 36.8%
Lewis: 36.4%
Stevens: 35.5%
Asotin: 34.9%
Columbia: 34.0%
Grant: 32.5%
Garfield: 23.6%

And here is swing between new voters (and mind-changers) and Primary voters by county:

Garfield: -17.1%
Asotin: -13.5%
Wahkiakum: -4.0%
Pacific: -3.5%
Grays Harbor: -2.0%
Mason: +0.7%
Cowlitz: +3.3%
Clallam: +4.8%
Skamania: +6.3%
Kitsap: +6.9%
Columbia: +7.3%
Pend Oreille: +7.4%
Pierce: +7.4%
Thurston: +8.1%
Clark: +8.3%
Stevens: +8.4%
Lewis: +8.6%
Klickitat: +9.0%
Skagit: +9.3%
Spokane: +10.0%
Grant: +11.0%
San Juan: +11.0%
Snohomish: +11.9%
King: +12.2%
Douglas: +13.1%
Overall: +14.1%
Jefferson: +14.6%
Lincoln: +14.8%
Island: +15.7%
Walla Walla: +16.3%
Kittitas: +17.9%
Whitman: +18.4%
Whatcom: +20.5%
Ferry: +21.8%
Okanogan: +22.5%
Chelan: +25.4%
Yakima: +26.7%
Benton: +30.6%
Adams: +31.7%
Franklin: +44.5%

Didiermania!

[Alcon]

Once the state gets itself into gear and uploads the 2010 precinct results, I think I'm going to have some map fun with the initiatives.

Candy tax repeal map is ridiculously clean in most places.  For instance, mainland Kitsap County approved the repeal 68%-32% while Bainbridge Island rejected it 33%-67%.  That's going to be a perdy map.

[CultureKing]

Once the state gets itself into gear and uploads the 2010 precinct results, I think I'm going to have some map fun with the initiatives.

Candy tax repeal map is ridiculously clean in most places.  For instance, mainland Kitsap County approved the repeal 68%-32% while Bainbridge Island rejected it 33%-67%.  That's going to be a perdy map.

Stupid Candy tax repeal.
By the way has anyone else noticed NPR's near constant coverage of "how are state tax cuts affecting you?" At first it was nice to see someone highlight the human aspect of the losses but it has slowly become creepy or overwhelming the intensity of the coverage.

[SvenssonRS]

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*FACEPALM*

[bgwah]

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*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

[SvenssonRS]

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*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

That would be the only time I'd ever remotely consider supporting him again. He just can't be elected statewide, it seems.

Plus, a poll that I don't think was recorded in our database here showed McKenna obliterating one of the Democrats' best candidates, so I think it would be a much wiser decision just to stay out if he actually wants his party to win something again.

[bgwah]

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*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

That would be the only time I'd ever remotely consider supporting him again. He just can't be elected statewide, it seems.

Plus, a poll that I don't think was recorded in our database here showed McKenna obliterating one of the Democrats' best candidates, so I think it would be a much wiser decision just to stay out if he actually wants his party to win something again.

The only 2012 Gov poll I know of was McKenna vs. Brown...and she would most definitely not be the Democratic Party's best candidate.