Texas has some weird redistricting procedure. If Dems win the House, then the House, Senate, and Gov cannot agree on a new map, it kicks it to some other GOP-controlled decision maker.
I thought it went to the courts which are apparently less likely to draw a gerrymander, but correct me if I'm wrong about those.
They can flip the House (though it's unlikely) but not the state Senate.
I think Dems will win more seats but fall short of a majority.
Then they would hold the House only from 2021-2023 anyway.
I know we aren't supposed to talk redistricting on this board, but here's a quick blurb for everyone on the Texas process:
If Texas senate or house districts are not enacted during the first regular session following the publication of the decennial census, the Legislative Redistricting Board meets and adopts its own plan. In theory, the LRB would be composed of the lieutenant governor (R), speaker of the house (D or R), attorney general (R), comptroller (R), and commissioner of the general land office (R). So Dems would have no chance.
Yeah the bigger effect would be the Dems forcing a milder congressional map for at minimum the 2022 elections. Once the GOP take the house back in this hypothetical situation they would move to redraw the districts to their advantage using Texas's mid-decade redistricting laws, however this would almost certainly initiate a lawsuit chain so its still a net positive for Dems when compared to the hypothetical where the GOP maintains the trifecta in 2020.
