Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060615070890086400

[Pandaguineapig]

Nelson might actually win this ...

Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet.

Those are tiny and will have a small spread, the only big thing out right now is Broward mail vote, Fried has almost certainly won, but it really doesn't look like Nelson has enough outstanding votes

[Comrade Funk]

[Tintrlvr]

Nelson might actually win this ...

Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet.

Those are tiny and will have a small spread, the only big thing out right now is Broward mail vote, Fried has almost certainly won, but it really doesn't look like Nelson has enough outstanding votes

Provisionals are actually usually very Democratic. But there are not many of them, and many will not be verified, so we're probably looking at net maybe 2,000 votes for Nelson from all of the provisionals statewide. Which means he needs a net of about 15,000 votes from the remaining Broward/Palm Beach ballots to tie. Without knowing exactly how many remain uncounted in Broward in particular, it's hard to say if that's unrealistic, but there would probably need to be about 35,000 in Broward and 10,000 in Palm Beach for Nelson to reach that number (assuming the remaining ballots break exactly the same way Broward and Palm Beach have broken so far), which seems plausible given how they've been reporting new results thus far in consistent batches of about the same size but hardly certain.

[ajc0918]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

[Gass3268]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 30K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

[Dr. Arch]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place.

[Gass3268]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place.

Sorry, it's 30K

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1060615875194245122

[GeorgiaModerate]

Karma dictates that Nelson wins by 537 votes after a recount.

[Tx_Longhorn]

Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely?

[Dr. Arch]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place.

Sorry, it's 30K

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1060615875194245122

Even more so

Gillum may still be in this, but it's gonna be a lot harder for him; he will have to rely on provisionals and absentees.

[Gass3268]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

[Comrade Funk]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

Par the course

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

C'mon Florida, come through for Dems for once.

Let there be just one year when you go Dem by .01%, rather than going R by .01%.

[Tintrlvr]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place.

Sorry, it's 30K

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1060615875194245122

If it's machine error, this is over and Nelson wins barring something ridiculous like Brenda Snipes destroying the paper ballots (which has happened before...). The FL-24 part of Broward County is extremely Democratic (heavily black), ballots there would be 85%+ Nelson. And we're in hand recount territory now, so any hand recount would catch the problem.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

Usually, but not "always". Nevada Sen 2012, South Dakota Sen 2004.

[Doimper]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

What else is new?

[BigSerg]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this

[GeorgiaModerate]

C'mon Florida, come through for Dems for once.

Let there be just one year when you go Dem by .01%, rather than going R by .01%.

2012 Presidential results in Florida:

Barack Obama 50.01% 

(Romney got 49.13%, the rest to minor candidates.)

[BigSerg]

Is there anyone who really thinks that such a big mistake happened? It does not count the opinion of the desperate democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this

You'd rather something be declared quickly than wait for a full accounting of votes?

[Bojack Horseman]

The final returns have changed the result in NM-2. Xochitl Torres Small is now the winner and Dems have all three seats in New Mexico.

[ajc0918]

Is there anyone who really thinks that such a big mistake happened? It does not count the opinion of the desperate democrats.

There haven't been any mistakes... the final counting of the vote is just taking place.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely?

We don't know, and Broward County's head of elections has said publicly (yesterday, I think) that she also doesn't know (indicative of the level of extreme incompetence in her office). Ignoring the undervote debacle, there would need to be around 45,000 votes left just in Broward for Nelson to tie, although we know there are some uncounted in Palm Beach also, so he might be able to get by with 35,000 in Broward and 12,000 in Palm Beach, e.g. Those numbers don't seem unrealistic at all (e.g., they would leave Broward and Palm Beach with turnout numbers around average for statewide while right now Broward is somewhat below average and Palm Beach in the range of average), but who knows.

And that is before provisionals, which are mostly uncounted except in a few rural counties, though Nelson should not expect to gain more than around 2,000 net votes from provisionals statewide.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/ncarper/status/1060614489773666305