Rank seats in likeliness to flip

[MarkWarner08]

1 - MT
2 - PA
3 - OH
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - TN
7 - NJ
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - MN
11 - WA
12 - AZ
13 - MI
14-33 - everything else (tie)

[MarkWarner08]

1. mt
2. nj
3. mn
4. mo
5. pa
6 tn
7. oh
8. ri

the others are pretty damn safe.

Walter, why would a poster as smart and well-educated as yourself think Ohio is the SEVENTH most likely Senate seat to flip?

[MarkWarner08]

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Oh, so because a polls way back showed a double digit lead for Casey that means Santorum cannot come back no matter what? Basically, there is no way for this race to narrow, right? Wow, thank you. Respond to my post when you get a clue.

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Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy.

 

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Baseless? Uh, intelligent people know that when a candidate is so far ahead people are more reluctant to turn out. Polls show Santorum with the momentum. People turn out when things are favoring their candidate while there is more of a risk of people staying home when you're so far ahead. Anyone would tell you this but you refuse to listen.

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Ok, let's say you are right. I want you to explain for me the 1990 and 1992 House races. The man has a history of running campaigns that he should have never won. Explain to me why the idea that Santorum is a far better campaigner and has the ability to come back (history proves this while you have no proof on your side) is so "hair-brained." Also address the issue of Casey being a weak campaigner and someone that throws away a tough race (again, I have proof and you don't).

I look forward to your entertaining response.

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket? Did I mention that the DCCC and the NRCC will pumping up turnout in PA-6, PA-7 and PA-8. Casey will increase turnout in the Pittsburgh area and he will cut into Santorum's pro-life base.

The confluence of anti-Bush sentiment, the targeting of the Philly Suburbs, Casey's strength in Western PA and the anti-incumbent wave will make it very hard for Santorum to win. The 72 Hour Task Force CAN'T save Rick Santorum.

[MarkWarner08]

The confluence of anti-Bush sentiment, the targeting of the Philly Suburbs, Casey's strength in Western PA and the anti-incumbent wave will make it very hard for Santorum to win. The 72 Hour Task Force CAN'T save Rick Santorum.

Santorum is certainly stronger than Casey in Western Pennsylvania and the GOP turnout effort is going to be a heavy factor in Santorum's favor.

Just just like in Eastern Oregon. A Democrat doesn't have to win it, but if he can cut the Republican's margin, he'll win the election.

[MarkWarner08]

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket?

No, he won't, but that doesn't mean that he will lose.

 

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The polls seem to be showing that Santorum is gaining back that base.

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One of us will be right on November 8th (unless things get really ugly). Let's wait and see. 

Good point. If Santorum pulls this off, the Democratic Party will have some major soul searching to do.