1994 reversed

[Gustaf]

If my counting is correct, the Democrats have now reclaimed 10 seats in the 2006 class of senators since 1994, just as many as they lost that year. Of course, they've lost 3 seats in each of the other classes since then, which is they have a slim majority and not the large they had upto 1994. So, it would be interesting to see which seats gained by the GOP in 1994 did not switch and which did. I have so far:

Dem-->Rep: Texas, Tennessee
Rep-->Dem: Montana
Dem-->Rep-->Dem: Michigan, Ohio, Washington, Pennsylvania, Missouri (?), Delaware (?)
Rep-->Dem-->Rep-->Dem: Virginia (?)

So, what about Rhode Island, Vermont? (and I'm counting Sanders, Jeffords and Lieberman as Democrats for these purposes).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Before 1994 to after 2006 for class 1 Senators has:




Counting Sanders, Lieberman as D

Dem -> GOP
NV, AZ, TN, ME

GOP->Dem
WA, MT, MO, MN, VT, DE, RI, FL

The Dems only lost 6 Class 1 Senators in 1994. They lost a 2nd TN Senator and an OK Senator, but those were other classes. The Democrats are a net +10 since 1994 (make sure you don't double count MO), and so have 4 more Class 1 Senators than before 1994.

Dems gained DE, WA, MI, MO  in 2000
Dems gained RI, PA, OH, MT, VA, MO in 2006
MO switched a 3rd time in 2002
VT jumped in 2001

[Gustaf]

I counted Democrats gaining 4 seats in 2000 (MO, MN, WA, DE, MI-VA), 1 seat in 2001 (VT) and then 5 in 2006 (VA, MT, PA, OH, RI).

But my original count of 10 probably includes Shelby in Alabama who is not in the class. I didn't know about those other two being up at the same time though. And  included Texas because the GOP gained it in a special election the year before, no?

Anyway, I know that the aftermath of 1994 meant the senate going from 57-43 Democrat to 53-47 Republican, a net change of 10 seats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I counted Democrats gaining 4 seats in 2000 (MO, MN, WA, DE, MI-VA), 1 seat in 2001 (VT) and then 5 in 2006 (VA, MT, PA, OH, RI).

But my original count of 10 probably includes Shelby in Alabama who is not in the class. I didn't know about those other two being up at the same time though. And  included Texas because the GOP gained it in a special election the year before, no?

Anyway, I know that the aftermath of 1994 meant the senate going from 57-43 Democrat to 53-47 Republican, a net change of 10 seats.

Oh, I forgot FL and VT before, so yes it's a change of 10, so the Democrats are +4. Anyways, the two switchers (AL and CO) weren't class 1.

The Democrats therefore have 10 fewer Class 2 and 3 Senators than pre-1994. If somehow the Democrats could claim 9 of those 10 (not necessarily the same ones) in the next 2 elections, they'll have a fillibuster proof majority.