The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

So a little while ago I outlined some candidates who had gone quiet+some of your usual pointless speculation. I'm gonna check on that:

Garcetti - OUT
Swalwell - Seems obvious he's gonna announce some time
Holder - He's making a decision in March. I know he's gone/is going to Iowa a *little bit* but I really think he's out.
Ryan - Again, it seems like he's actually running. Maybe it's just because Brown really hasn't come to a decision yet?

New guy for the list would be Jeff Merkley. Last we heard of his 2020 plans he was talking about Republicans putting up a good candidate for his seat, so maybe he wouldn't run. I think him, Holder, and *if Brown runs* maybe Ryan are good candidates to join the ranks of Patrick/Cuomo/Garcetti/etc.

[Spiffy]

It always seemed to me that Holder's presidential ambitions were really about promoting his redistricting initiative more than about a real run.

[Cold War Liberal]

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House, but I also can't remember where I "learned" that, and can't find a source at the moment. Is this just discouraged? Is it just a matter of state law?

(I know if you were to win the higher office, you have to resign your house seat, which triggers a special election under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution)

[tosk]

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House, but I also can't remember where I "learned" that, and can't find a source at the moment. Is this just discouraged? Is it just a matter of state law?

(I know if you were to win the higher office, you have to resign your house seat, which triggers a special election under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/can-you-run-for-congress-and-president-depends-on-where

found this. appears that california is a question mark if he can, I suppose his campaign thinks he can.

[Mr. Morden]

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House

It's determined by state law, and every state is different.

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House, but I also can't remember where I "learned" that, and can't find a source at the moment. Is this just discouraged? Is it just a matter of state law?

(I know if you were to win the higher office, you have to resign your house seat, which triggers a special election under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/can-you-run-for-congress-and-president-depends-on-where

found this. appears that california is a question mark if he can, I suppose his campaign thinks he can.

Ryan represents a district in Ohio, not California.

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper hires an Iowa director:

https://kdvr.com/2019/02/22/hickenlooper-hires-iowa-organizer-as-he-considers-2020-bid/

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Brown’s early state tour takes him to Nevada tomorrow:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/sherrod-brown-coming-to-las-vegas-amid-weighing-2020-bid-1596979/

Dispatch from Bennet’s visit to Iowa here:

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/02/21/michael-bennet-iowa-2020-presidential-race/

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[Tender Branson]

All of this shows that the race is not getting interesting until September/October, because there's enough time for important candidates to jump in until then, without missing anything (ballots are only printed in November for the early primary states and organisation takes no more than a couple months in those small states with the right plan).

So, who cares if there are debates in June or July already ? Everyone's on vacation anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

All of this shows that the race is not getting interesting until September/October, because there's enough time for important candidates to jump in until then, without missing anything (ballots are only printed in November for the early primary states and organisation takes no more than a couple months in those small states with the right plan).

So, who cares if there are debates in June or July already ? Everyone's on vacation anyway.

Someone like Biden can afford to delay, and still run a serious campaign.  However, if you're someone who's less well known, like a Tim Ryan, or even a Senator like Bennet or Merkley, then delaying too long risks getting you McCottered out of the race.  Thaddeus McCotter ran for prez in the 2012 cycle, waiting until the summer of 2011 to jump in, which was several months after everyone else had.  By the time he entered the media didn't seem to have any interest in covering a brand new 3rd tier candidate and he got ignored, not even being included in many polls.  I feel like if McCotter had entered earlier, he would have at least had a shot at being invited to early debates.  His campaign still probably wouldn't have gone anywhere, but he would have at least had a brief moment of national exposure in which he could make his case, and let the chips fall where they may.

That's why Ryan, Bennet, Moulton, etc. should all just decide right now.  They've got a shot at being in the first couple of debates if they declare right now, but possibly not if they wait much longer.

[Mr. Morden]

All of this shows that the race is not getting interesting until September/October, because there's enough time for important candidates to jump in until then, without missing anything (ballots are only printed in November for the early primary states and organisation takes no more than a couple months in those small states with the right plan).

So, who cares if there are debates in June or July already ? Everyone's on vacation anyway.

Someone like Biden can afford to delay, and still run a serious campaign.  However, if you're someone who's less well known, like a Tim Ryan, or even a Senator like Bennet or Merkley, then delaying too long risks getting you McCottered out of the race.  Thaddeus McCotter ran for prez in the 2012 cycle, waiting until the summer of 2011 to jump in, which was several months after everyone else had.  By the time he entered the media didn't seem to have any interest in covering a brand new 3rd tier candidate and he got ignored, not even being included in many polls.  I feel like if McCotter had entered earlier, he would have at least had a shot at being invited to early debates.  His campaign still probably wouldn't have gone anywhere, but he would have at least had a brief moment of national exposure in which he could make his case, and let the chips fall where they may.

That's why Ryan, Bennet, Moulton, etc. should all just decide right now.  They've got a shot at being in the first couple of debates if they declare right now, but possibly not if they wait much longer.

This doesn't seem true in recent history, although I have to thank you for reminding me of Thaddeus McCotter.

The Republican Party showed an appetite for additional candidates for 2012 throughout the preceding summer, but when prospective candidates like Chris Christie chose not to run political journalists blamed his demurral on the organizational challenge of entering the campaign so late. We've seen plenty of top-tier candidacies scuttled by later entries in recent campaigns, as with Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, and Wes Clark.

The most recent example of this might even be Biden himself, who by many accounts already regretted his failure to prepare a 2016 campaign by fall of 2015, at which point he stayed out only because getting in wasn't really an option.

My read of things is that even a candidate with Biden's standing in the party needs to prepare more thoroughly than there's evidence of him have done so far. It's nearly spring and all that he's doing is making phone calls and non-committal public comments. I can't think of any recent candidate who has fielded a successful campaign with so little preparation at this point in the cycle.

Well, there's also the fact that usually the latest entries into the race are the candidates who are the least interested in running.  Fred Thompson and Rick Perry didn't seem all that interested in running for president up until their inner circles convinced them that there was an opening for them.  Thompson in particular then showed an unusual level of ambivalence towards campaigning for a presidential candidate, once he actually entered the race.  Maybe if they had been more motivated to run in the first place, their campaigns would have gone better.  So I'm not sure how to separate "organizational problems from getting in late" from "motivational" type problems.

[Mr. Morden]

Agreed that Biden's ambivalence seems to be real.

In other news...

Hickenlooper says Schumer has asked him to consider a Senate run, but the Hick man has no interest:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/23/john-hickenlooper-2020-senate-1182424

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[Mr. Morden]

Inslee will be on Face the Nation tomorrow morning:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sunday-blunt-markey-inslee-lujan-grisham-kinzinger/

It was on Jan. 22nd that Inslee first said that he'll decide on 2020 in "weeks, not months":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6637042#msg6637042

so maybe he'll give us an update on his timeline.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio in Iowa:

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/nyc-mayor-de-blasio-visiting-sioux-city-bar-advocates-progressivism/article_ab2ed190-2dce-5432-8630-dd9eb7c2906b.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Bennet says he doesn't have a timetable for when he's going to decide whether to run or not:

https://siouxlandnews.com/news/local/vote-2020-de-blasio-hickenlooper-among-potential-candidates-visiting-iowa-saturday

[tosk]

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House

It's determined by state law, and every state is different.

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House, but I also can't remember where I "learned" that, and can't find a source at the moment. Is this just discouraged? Is it just a matter of state law?

(I know if you were to win the higher office, you have to resign your house seat, which triggers a special election under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/can-you-run-for-congress-and-president-depends-on-where

found this. appears that california is a question mark if he can, I suppose his campaign thinks he can.

Ryan represents a district in Ohio, not California.

I was thinking swalwell for some reason oof

But the same source says ohio laws allow Tim to run for Congress and President

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1099708732290854912

[Mr. Morden]

At the very end of this interview:

https://www.wmur.com/article/closeup-tim-ryan-eyes-moderate-lane-in-2020-presidential-contest/26496578

Tim Ryan says he anticipates that he'll make his decision in "the next month or two".

[Mr. Morden]

Brown had previously suggested that he’d decide on whether to run in the first half of March, but now it looks like that’s slid to the latter half of March:

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2019/feb/23/sherrod-brown-promises-in-las-vegas-to-be-most-pro/

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de Blasio in Iowa, asked about his 2020 plans:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/24/nyregion/iowa-bill-de-blasio-2020.html

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[I Can Now Die Happy]

Maybe this doesn't really need to be said, but one last thing I'll mention before I call it a night is that while the "no chance" candidates like Klobuchar, Gabbard, Brown, Delaney, Ojeda, etc have practically no chance at winning the nomination, they can be useful to the Democratic nominee by inserting narratives into the nationwide political dialogue that are productive. For instance, Brown and Ojeda can push the "Trump is a conman who mislead the white working class into supporting a candidate who backed the Paul Ryan agenda, what could we have expected from a billionaire" narrative, which if executed well can be decisive in bringing back the WI-MI-PA trio back into the Democratic fold. Gabbard can do the same for the "Trump promised to end unnecessary foreign intervention but bombed Syria" narrative. On the flipside, Klobuchar and Delaney might end up hurting the Democratic nominee by touting the "we can't get too extreme for the American people" narrative, which will definitely be something the likes of Bernie, Warren, Harris, etc will have to contend with.

Time will tell as to how all this plays out. I wouldn't be surprised if none of that works out and 2020 becomes a Trump friendly environment.

[Lognog]

Thank god hickenlooper isn’t going to be in the senate

[Holmes]

Thank god hickenlooper isn’t going to be in the senate

He can still run if he drops his presidential bid before the filing deadline in Colorado.

[Harlow]

Maybe this doesn't really need to be said, but one last thing I'll mention before I call it a night is that while the "no chance" candidates like Klobuchar, Gabbard, Brown, Delaney, Ojeda, etc have practically no chance at winning the nomination, they can be useful to the Democratic nominee by inserting narratives into the nationwide political dialogue that are productive. For instance, Brown and Ojeda can push the "Trump is a conman who mislead the white working class into supporting a candidate who backed the Paul Ryan agenda, what could we have expected from a billionaire" narrative, which if executed well can be decisive in bringing back the WI-MI-PA trio back into the Democratic fold. Gabbard can do the same for the "Trump promised to end unnecessary foreign intervention but bombed Syria" narrative. On the flipside, Klobuchar and Delaney might end up hurting the Democratic nominee by touting the "we can't get too extreme for the American people" narrative, which will definitely be something the likes of Bernie, Warren, Harris, etc will have to contend with.

Time will tell as to how all this plays out. I wouldn't be surprised if none of that works out and 2020 becomes a Trump friendly environment.

Ojeda dropped out.

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper's been scouting sites for an announcement....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jay-inslee-hopes-a-singular-focus-on-climate-will-get-him-to-the-white-house/2019/02/24/ad7b52c6-386d-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html

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[Kylar]

Does anyone know what Governor Jay Inslee's religion is? I keep finding Protestant. By religion I mean denomination of Christianity in this context. Or is he non-denominational?

[President Johnson]

Terry McAuliffe appeared on Morning Joe today and said he would decide by the end of March whether to run. He stands by his word that both Northam and Faifax should resign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ9CUB8i1Ns


I don't think T-Mac would have a decent chance for nomination, but would make a decent president.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Terry McAuliffe appeared on Morning Joe today and said he would decide by the end of March whether to run. He stands by his word that both Northam and Faifax should resign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ9CUB8i1Ns


I don't think T-Mac would have a decent chance for nomination, but would make a decent president.

T-Mac is a DLC hack stuck in 1996.