The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Joey1996]

https://twitter.com/feliciasonmez/status/1073011353659559936

Just announce you've formed an exploratory committee already. Saying you're "seriously considering" for the umpteenth time isn't real news.

[CookieDamage]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

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So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

I just answered you. I wanted a citation that Kamala doesn't have diehard supporters, and you gave me ONE poll. Not really saying much and doesn't disprove that Kamala has diehard supporters. But judging from your giant and unsightly sig I'm sure you'll dismiss that and go on about how Beto is destined to win.

[henster]

Harris and Biden were spotted together in DC... Which makes me think either she was trying to convince him not to run or he was trying to convince her to be his VP in the primary. Or they did just had a friendly chat about whatever.

https://twitter.com/adamslily/status/1072964861456457728

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cher endorsed Biden-

https://twitter.com/cher/status/1073020202311311360

[Joey1996]

Not that it matters, but here's an awesome response from AOC to a ridiculous article suggesting she runs and challenges the 35+ age eligibility.

https://twitter.com/Ocasio2018/status/1073030060171509761?s=19

[Mr. Morden]

Chris Murphy says he “has no plans” to run for president:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/chris-murphy-not-planning-2020-president-campaign

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Steyer is advertising for senior posts in his presumed presidential campaign on LinkedIn:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/us/politics/tom-steyer-president.html

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Politico on the 2020 early state jockeying, including a Bullock trip to Nevada that I think we missed:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/12/democrats-2020-early-state-visits-iowa-new-hampshire-south-carolina-nevada-1059165

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Swalwell: “I actually do see a path”:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/420945-swalwell-i-do-see-a-path-to-democratic-nomination-in-2020

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[JG]

Chris Murphy says he “has no plans” to run for president:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/chris-murphy-not-planning-2020-president-campaign

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[/quote]

I feel like Murphy is angling for SoS in the next democratic administration and has no real interest in running for the presidency.

[Sir Mohamed]

Chris Murphy says he “has no plans” to run for president:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/chris-murphy-not-planning-2020-president-campaign

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I feel like Murphy is angling for SoS in the next democratic administration and has no real interest in running for the presidency.
[/quote]

Doubtful. He has a senate seat for life. I think Samanta Power will be SoS.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

I just answered you. I wanted a citation that Kamala doesn't have diehard supporters, and you gave me ONE poll. Not really saying much and doesn't disprove that Kamala has diehard supporters. But judging from your giant and unsightly sig I'm sure you'll dismiss that and go on about how Beto is destined to win.

Obnoxious sig aside, Mohammed (and me too) were obviously using hyperbole. Obviously Harris, Gillibrand, and Booker have die-hard supporters, but the point is that it's hard to argue that any of them have more die-hard support then Beto, due to the cult of personality already around him. Gilly/Harris/Booker just don't have that. I figured you weren't taking SM literally. But I'm gonna shut up about this now because we're derailing the thread.

[Zaybay]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

I just answered you. I wanted a citation that Kamala doesn't have diehard supporters, and you gave me ONE poll. Not really saying much and doesn't disprove that Kamala has diehard supporters. But judging from your giant and unsightly sig I'm sure you'll dismiss that and go on about how Beto is destined to win.

Obnoxious sig aside, Mohammed (and me too) were obviously using hyperbole. Obviously Harris, Gillibrand, and Booker have die-hard supporters, but the point is that it's hard to argue that any of them have more die-hard support then Beto, due to the cult of personality already around him. Gilly/Harris/Booker just don't have that. I figured you weren't taking SM literally. But I'm gonna shut up about this now because a chain this long is gonna annoy everyone else.

Still, however, his pool of diehard supporters is still rather small(Beto). I think there is only 1 candidate in the race that has diehard supporters in large quantities, and its Sanders.

[tosk]

Chris Murphy says he “has no plans” to run for president:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/chris-murphy-not-planning-2020-president-campaign

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I feel like Murphy is angling for SoS in the next democratic administration and has no real interest in running for the presidency.

Doubtful. He has a senate seat for life. I think Samanta Power will be SoS.
[/quote]

Murphy would be my pick, altough Power would be a good pick for dems too. Maybe Murphy's got higher ambitions but he's going against the tide and wanting to bide his time?

[RogueBeaver]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

[Blackacre]

I wouldnt be surprised at this point if the declared candidate pool breaks 30. Yikes

[Wang]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Atlas' resident "garbage candidate" Julian Castro will be on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert tonight with his brother. 

[lfromnj]

Atlas' resident "garbage candidate" Julian Castro will be on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert tonight with his brother. 

i mean the thing is the moment Beto announces(I now say its a 50/50 ) he will look like a garbage candidate. Also he seems super opportunistic. Won't run statewide in 2018 because he was afraid of a loss on his resume.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Atlas' resident "garbage candidate" Julian Castro will be on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert tonight with his brother.  

i mean the thing is the moment Beto announces(I now say its a 50/50 ) he will look like a garbage candidate. Also he seems super opportunistic. Won't run statewide in 2018 because he was afraid of a loss on his resume.

Oh, I was referring to the toxicity of the Castro Announces Committee thread.

People are calling him worse than Ojeda.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

[Grassroots]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

LOL @ people still talking about Sanders. Give up already!

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

LOL @ people still talking about Sanders. Give up already!

At what point has Sanders said he isn't running? In fact, it looks like the opposite is true.

[Mr. Morden]

Andrea Mitchell asked Sanders about his decision timeline, and he said only “I will make that decision when I think it’s appropriate”:

https://www.msnbc.com/andrea-mitchell-reports/watch/sanders-2020-presidential-run-not-an-easy-decision-1397157955754

[The Mikado]

On that point, at least, he's probably right. Only the obscure/minor people have to get in soon-ish. Sanders could wait until April or May and get a splash of attention when he does jump in.

[Shadows]

Sanders also made statements like I will run if there is grassroots support & so on. He will probably wait till March-April or more & see what level of support he has, if this Beto hype from neoliberals subsides, if Warren is really tanking, If Biden runs (in which case he will 100% run).

I think he is tilting towards running but it is not 100%. Booker Warren Harris are much further ahead in the process.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

The Clinton level shenanigans is exactly the reason why she lost.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

The Clinton level shenanigans is exactly the reason why she lost.

She lost because she had flaws that were unique to her as a candidate (Whitewater, helping cover up Bill's sexual indiscretions, email scandal) not because of any particular strength of a proposed Sanders candidacy.