The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[lfromnj]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

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So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

[Jon Tester]

IMO: The three frontrunners right now are:
Biden
Harris
Beto

Sherrod seems to be picking up name recognition though.

[Joey1996]

Pretty hilarious article about Eric Swalwell

https://splinternews.com/thirsty-forgettable-congressman-willing-to-hop-on-pret-1830934772

[NYSforKennedy2024]

IMO: The three frontrunners right now are:
Biden
Harris
Beto

Sherrod seems to be picking up name recognition though.

Pretty much, though Bernie's polling is generally comparable to Harris'.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN talks about the staffing prep by several of the campaigns-in-waiting:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/democrats-2020-gear-up-behind-the-scenes/index.html

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In other news, The Intercept has an interview with Sherrod Brown, and here are his 2020 comments:

https://theintercept.com/2018/12/06/is-this-the-democrat-who-can-beat-trump-in-the-rust-belt-in-2020/

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[CookieDamage]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

[President Johnson]

IMO: The three frontrunners right now are:
Biden
Harris
Beto

Sherrod seems to be picking up name recognition though.

Pretty much, though Bernie's polling is generally comparable to Harris'.

Current polling doesn't suggest Harris a frontrunner. I have a feeling she'll be the Democratic Scott Walker.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Current polling doesn't suggest Harris a frontrunner. I have a feeling she'll be the Democratic Scott Walker.

Yeah, on paper (i.e. demographically) she should be a really strong candidate. But for a Senator from California (which should be enough to get her a few % in the national polls) she is not polling well so far. Of course, the campaign hasn't even started, so she has some time. But she is not going to start out as a front runner. She will have to earn it.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders was on Colbert this week, and at about the 3:10 mark of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxEIZEP5Ptw

Colbert asks him about 2020, and he gives a non-answer.

Booker’s in New Hampshire today, and said this about 2020:

http://ktar.com/story/2346086/booker-trip-to-new-hampshire-possible-preview-for-2020/

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[RogueBeaver]

NYT on Booker's NH travel.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IMO: The three frontrunners right now are:
Biden
Harris
Beto

Sherrod seems to be picking up name recognition though.

Pretty much, though Bernie's polling is generally comparable to Harris'.

Current polling doesn't suggest Harris a frontrunner. I have a feeling she'll be the Democratic Scott Walker.

She'll probably end up being the Running-mate of either of the other two.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently there’s no momentum in the Oregon legislature for the bill that would make it legal for Merkley to run for president and Senate simultaneously, and Merkley says he’s fine with that:

https://twitter.com/JeffMerkley/status/1071207393965498368

Of course, because of Oregon’s late primary, it would still be possible for Merkley to run in the early presidential primaries, and then, if he doesn’t make it into the top tier, drop out of the race and run for reelection for Senate instead.

In other news, Warren’s latest comments on 2020:

https://www.bostonherald.com/2018/12/08/sen-elizabeth-warren-wont-reveal-2020-plans/

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From a story about the fundraising for Inslee’s PAC:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/gov-jay-inslees-new-pac-raises-112000-as-he-actively-considers-presidential-run/

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[Coldstream]

Apparently there’s no momentum in the Oregon legislature for the bill that would make it legal for Merkley to run for president and Senate simultaneously, and Merkley says he’s fine with that:

https://twitter.com/JeffMerkley/status/1071207393965498368

Of course, because of Oregon’s late primary, it would still be possible for Merkley to run in the early presidential primaries, and then, if he doesn’t make it into the top tier, drop out of the race and run for reelection for Senate instead.

I wonder, is this because Merkley isn’t that popular in the legislature - or ambitious Oregon Democrats want to force him out of the Senate race so they themselves can run?

[RogueBeaver]

Long NYT on Beto.

[Mr. Morden]

I still think Biden sounds like someone who is, more likely than not, going to pass on another presidential run.  He talks about wanting to stay “engaged” in public life, but also says that he wants to spend as much time as he can with his family in his remaining years.  He could “stay engaged” without actually running for president.  Anyway, here are the latest quotes:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/09/joe-biden-2020-vermont-bernie-sanders-1054071

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Long NYT on Beto.

Some relevant excerpts:

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In other news, Chris Murphy not closing the door:

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And finally, O’Malley hasn’t been making much noise since the midterms.  But he does a ~20 minute long interview (over Skype from his home) here:

https://freespeech.org/stories/the-jeff-santos-show-episode-10/

He still sounds very much like he’s in “candidate” mode.  I still have to think he’s going to run, despite keeping a lower profile than most of the rest of the field.  What else is he going to do with his life if not run for president?  If he didn't want to run for president again, then why bother doing interviews like this?  Why not just leave the spotlight and go sit on some corporate board?  Maybe he’ll just run a Jim Gilmore-esque campaign, where he runs for president while rarely leaving his living room, since his campaign has no $.

[CookieDamage]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Current polling doesn't suggest Harris a frontrunner. I have a feeling she'll be the Democratic Scott Walker.

Yeah, on paper (i.e. demographically) she should be a really strong candidate. But for a Senator from California (which should be enough to get her a few % in the national polls) she is not polling well so far. Of course, the campaign hasn't even started, so she has some time. But she is not going to start out as a front runner. She will have to earn it.

The race hasn't started yet and she still doesn't have name recognition that matches Beto's hype. Once she and everyone announces, that will change and her polling numbers will rise. Y'alls hope that she is the next Scott Walker is pretty obviously wishful thinking since she is a formidable opponent to the sacred cow that is Beto. Weren't most of you making fun of Republicans for slamming Beto and accused them of doing so out of fear because they know he'd beat Trump? Well the growing Beto Bro dismissal of Kamala sure looks similar.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The race hasn't started yet and she still doesn't have name recognition that matches Beto's hype. Once she and everyone announces, that will change and her polling numbers will rise. Y'alls hope that she is the next Scott Walker is pretty obviously wishful thinking since she is a formidable opponent to the sacred cow that is Beto. Weren't most of you making fun of Republicans for slamming Beto and accused them of doing so out of fear because they know he'd beat Trump? Well the growing Beto Bro dismissal of Kamala sure looks similar.

For the record, I have no particular problem with Harris at the moment. The only thing I don't particularly like about her is that she is the shortest candidate (only 5 feet 2 inches tall), and that is a minor and pretty negligible electability concern.

My statements with regards to Beto are no more and no less than statements of fact - he will be the nominee.

They are not statements of support, per se (and also are not statements of opposition). I might vote for Beto, but I very well might vote for someone else in the primary.

Regardless, who I support and vote for is all but immaterial to the fact that Beto is the nominee - my single vote won't make a difference amidst the sea of mass Betomania.

[Comrade Funk]

Kamala Harris underrated. She's more personable than people give her credit for. Obviously not Beto level, but I think she gives a pretty good stump speech. I hope she's on the ticket.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

(I messed up the formatting, this is what I said)
Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

[lfromnj]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

Nobody is a bit harsh but from talking with my dem friends it seems like the senator dems (besides bernie who is a bit weirder) all have the same profile of being relatively interchangeable people who live in safe blue state that will never vOTE anything trump supports(even non controversial stuff) despite all being relatively moderate earlier in their life. All these candidates are similar and besides us junkies no one notices a difference. Beto may have a similar vibe with the moderate part but a lot of people ik respect his suicide run.

[CookieDamage]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

[Grassroots]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

Lol, talking about being in the news, Beto had all the media attention he could ever want. They obsessed over him, and MSNBC basically endorsed him with the clearly biased coverage in his favor.

[aaroncd107]

move your argument to the Betomania thread.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/420447-sen-murphy-on-2020-im-going-to-make-sure-we-get-a-candidate-who-is

Chris Murphy non-answer