The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[aaroncd107]

Wild... Avenatti’s been arrested for domestic violence after taking Stomy Daniels and Julie Swetnick’s cases. He is probably over. https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1062841008805830663?s=21

[WV222]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

Seems like a strange place to launch it.

[Grassroots]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

Seems like a strange place to launch it.

Basically he's putting together his base, and his top target is Appalachia.

[WV222]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

Seems like a strange place to launch it.

Even stranger when he is going to a Teamsters there. It seems he wants to be the union candidate, however, why not do it in Charleston with a bunch of teachers he helped successfully beat two chambers of 2:1 GOP majorities to get a 5% pay raise for them.

[Chinggis]

If Ojeda stays in long enough (and especially if he makes it into the debates), I could see him winning a lot of Demosaur protest votes in places like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, north Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I'm rooting for him tbh, not to win the nomination but to raise hell.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Ojeda stays in long enough (and especially if he makes it into the debates), I could see him winning a lot of Demosaur protest votes in places like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, north Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I'm rooting for him tbh, not to win the nomination but to raise hell.

Yeah, the funny thing is it is not at all difficult to imagine him even winning the primaries outright in a lot of those states - even if - or especially if, he is not considered a major candidate. Many voters in those states who are registered D simply will not vote for a major Dem candidate associated with the national party, and will literally rather vote for people who are in prison (Obama famously lost the WV primary I think in 2012 to an inmate).

That does mean that even if Ojeda goes absolutely nowhere nationally, he could get a decent delegate haul from Appalachian states, and then have influence that way. I guess if that is his goal, it is not really a bad strategy.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story about the candidates and South Carolina:

https://www.apnews.com/8dd2dd48c247482a933982a25a46708b

I've already noted Patrick's upcoming SC trip here, but that story says that Booker and Garcetti are also planning to return to SC "in the coming weeks".  Also:

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[Canis]

If Ojeda stays in long enough (and especially if he makes it into the debates), I could see him winning a lot of Demosaur protest votes in places like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, north Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I'm rooting for him tbh, not to win the nomination but to raise hell.

Yeah, the funny thing is it is not at all difficult to imagine him even winning the primaries outright in a lot of those states - even if - or especially if, he is not considered a major candidate. Many voters in those states who are registered D simply will not vote for a major Dem candidate associated with the national party, and will literally rather vote for people who are in prison (Obama famously lost the WV primary I think in 2012 to an inmate).

That does mean that even if Ojeda goes absolutely nowhere nationally, he could get a decent delegate haul from Appalachian states, and then have influence that way. I guess if that is his goal, it is not really a bad strategy.

He didn't lose but it was hella close for an incumbent president vs a inmate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012#Democratic_primary

[Joey1996]

So it looks like

Brown
Warren
Merkley
Gabbard

Are all running, add Bernie and maybe de Blasio and the progressive vote will be split ten ways till Sunday

[Mr. Morden]

Prospective 2020 Democratic candidates are participating in “friend-raisers”….”a small, informal gathering donors host for would-be candidates”, presumably with the intention of sounding out donors in preparation for a national run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416814-democrats-huddle-for-2020-friend-raisers

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Who has done it so far?:

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In other news, Merkley talks 2020 here:

https://kobi5.com/news/local-news/2020-senator-or-president-merkley-may-have-to-choose-89846/

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He also said it’s up to the Oregon legislature if they want to follow NJ’s lead and pass a new law to let him run for reelection while he runs for president, but mused that Oregon’s late primary may make that unnecessary, since he could run for president and if he doesn’t finish in the top tier in the early primaries, he’d still have time to drop out and run for reelection instead.  (Of course, Booker could do that too, but that didn’t stop the legislature from acting.)

[Former Kentuckian]

From MinnPost on Amy Klobuchar:

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Source: https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/11/amy-klobuchar-is-the-only-one-not-talking-about-amy-klobuchar-running-for-president-in-2020/

She's also been garnering some national attention for going toe-to-toe with Facebook over possible campaign finance violations: https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2018/11/15/18096868/facebook-report-klobuchar-senate-congress-definers-campaign-finance

[Former Kentuckian]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

Seems like a strange place to launch it.

Basically he's putting together his base, and his top target is Appalachia.

Louisville isn't Appalachia or anywhere near it. Even Lexington or Cincinnati are closer.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Prospective 2020 Democratic candidates are participating in “friend-raisers”….”a small, informal gathering donors host for would-be candidates”, presumably with the intention of sounding out donors in preparation for a national run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416814-democrats-huddle-for-2020-friend-raisers

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Who has done it so far?:

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In other news, Merkley talks 2020 here:

https://kobi5.com/news/local-news/2020-senator-or-president-merkley-may-have-to-choose-89846/

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He also said it’s up to the Oregon legislature if they want to follow NJ’s lead and pass a new law to let him run for reelection while he runs for president, but mused that Oregon’s late primary may make that unnecessary, since he could run for president and if he doesn’t finish in the top tier in the early primaries, he’d still have time to drop out and run for reelection instead.  (Of course, Booker could do that too, but that didn’t stop the legislature from acting.)

That's pretty much a list of big money establishment hack candidates there. No mention of Terry Mcauliffe, though. That would be right up his alley.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke has a new post in Medium that might be some kind of cryptic messaging about being inspired to run by Abraham Lincoln:

https://medium.com/@BetoORourke/i-woke-up-after-a-good-nights-sleep-9999308c103e

Bob Casey not ruling out a presidential run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/15/casey-2020-run-993954

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While in NH, Kasich says all options are on the table, whether as a Republican or an Independent:

https://www.wmur.com/article/all-options-are-on-the-table-john-kasich-wont-rule-out-2020-presidential-run/25132705

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Inslee still pondering:

https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/governor-jay-inslee-still-mulling-2020-presidential-run/281-615060105

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Avenatti says he’s still thinking about running for president, despite his arrest:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-still-considering-run-president-after-domestic-violence-arrest/2019880002/

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Tom Steyer is meeting with George Soros and other big $ Democratic donors in DC to discuss the post-midterms landscape.  Terry McAuliffe is also making a cameo appearance there:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democracy-alliance-2020_us_5beda3c8e4b0dbb7ea688290

[Grassroots]

Avenatti says he’s still thinking about running for president, despite his arrest:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-still-considering-run-president-after-domestic-violence-arrest/2019880002/

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Oh my god he is SUCH A TOOL.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

THE FIGHT PAC LIVES ON

SHE WILL NOT DIVIDE US

[Mr. Morden]

Here's your Beto O'Rourke 2020 news for today:

TMZ ran into O'Rourke in DC earlier today, and he wouldn't rule out a presidential run:

http://www.tmz.com/2018/11/16/beto-orourke-presidential-run-2020-challenge-trump/

Here's my transcript of that exchange from the video:

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Castro says his decision on whether to run for president won't be influenced by O'Rourke:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/16/julian-castro-says-betos-future-no-factor-in-2020-decision/

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/politics/shelby-cole-beto-orourke-kamala-harris-2020/index.html

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[Chinggis]

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant

Boo. If anything will guarantee a Trump reelection, it's a Kamala Harris candidacy.

[Grassroots]

Ojeda was JUST on MSNBC in an interview with Chuck Todd.

[Comrade Funk]

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant

Boo. If anything will guarantee a Trump reelection, it's a Kamala Harris candidacy.

Um why. She's not nearly as toxic as say Warren.

[henster]

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant

Boo. If anything will guarantee a Trump reelection, it's a Kamala Harris candidacy.

Um why. She's not nearly as toxic as say Warren.

I'm starting to think about the nuisances candidates have won't matter. Look at Sinema, with all her baggage she managed to pull off a win riding on anti-Trump coattails.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Avenatti says he’s still thinking about running for president, despite his arrest:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-still-considering-run-president-after-domestic-violence-arrest/2019880002/

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Oh my god he is SUCH A TOOL.

I want to partially blame Trump for this arrogance. Him getting away with similar behavior for so long has opened the floodgates to other sleazy would-be candidates like this.

[CookieDamage]

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/politics/shelby-cole-beto-orourke-kamala-harris-2020/index.html

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Hmm. Interesting. If Beto is indeed planning a run, wouldn't he have tried to retain most of his crew? Obviously they must be a great crew since he generates so much online hype and buzz and almost won Texas, so it seems he let her slip through the cracks. I mean, he could be sending emails and having meetings asking his staff to stay on board for a Pres campaign and she just said "I'll work for Kamala instead"

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

High chance Gabbard runs

https://www.tribuneindia.com/mobi/news/world/tulsi-gabbard-planning-to-run-for-us-presidency-in-2020-sources/681953.html

Ironic that Bernie's two highest profile Congressional endorsements (Merkley and Gabbard) are probably going to run against him.

"Ironic" or just a reflection of the not-so-unreasonable expectation that they might be more up to running a presidential campaign than someone who was born before sizable portions of the coterminous 48 had electricity?

Man thanks for being the 843rd person to remind me today that MUH BERNIE OLD.