The question is... WHY? Demographically, the state is practically identical to Wisconsin and Michigan aside from being slightly more educated. Is that really the WHOLE difference? I suppose the Twin Cities make it a bit more urban as well. But generally speaking, we're not talking about DRASTIC differences here. And historically, it's rarely voted vastly farther to the left than these states (except maybe special circumstances like Ford getting a favorite son boost in MI while Mondale got one in MN in 1976). In 2016, it was just a 2 point difference, giving the GOP hope.
So what's going on?
Twin Cities: 61% of Minnesota population.
Metro Milwaukee: 27% of Wisconsin population.
Metro Madison: 11% of Wisconsin population.
OK maybe that partially explains Wisconsin, but isn't significantly more of the Michigan population (also very similar demographically in most respects) in a metro area?
Also it seems even the rural areas of Minnesota stay stubbornly to the left of those of Wisconsin; again, see the Iron Range.
Metro Detroit is only 43% of Michigan. To be fair, there are a number of mid-sized metros but 43% is much less than 61% and that explains a chunk of the difference in margin (which is only 4.5 points or so.) Also, rural MN is probably more Republican than Wisconsin. Those few Iron Range counties up north are touristy and sparsely populated. The bulk of rural MN is in corn-and-soy country further south and it pretty clearly votes right of rural Wisconsin. When it comes to the Midwest, the Democratic vote share pretty clearly tracks just how much the big metro dominates the state. The Twin Cities having 3 in 5 Minnesotans is really all you need to know.
Metro detroit also includes Macomb and Monroe right and Downriver Wayne.
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