2000 redistricting impact on GOP losses

[nclib]

Redistricting gave GOP member a safer district:

Keller (FL-8)
Shaw (FL-22)
Grucci (NY-1)
Kelly (NY-19)
Chabot (OH-1)
Sherwood (PA-10)

Redistricting gave GOP a less safe district:

Morella (MD-8)
Hayes (NC-8)

Redistricting gave GOP member a district with no major partisan change (or unknown--please correct otherwise):

Hayworth (AZ-5)
Pombo (CA-11)
Simmons (CT-2)
Shays (CT-4)
Johnson (CT-5), though in 2002 faced inc. vs. inc.
Crane (IL-8)
Hostettler (IN-8)
Nussle (IA-1)
Leach (IA-2)
Ryun (KS-2)
Northup (KY-3)
Knollenberg (MI-9)
Gutknecht (MN-1)
Bass (NH-2)
Sweeney (NY-20)
Taylor (NC-11)
English (PA-3)
Hart (PA-4)
Weldon (PA-7)
Bonilla (TX-23)? - originally safer, then less safe - not sure how final district compared to the 1990s
Goode (VA-5)

-------

Seems that GOP-dominated redistricting if anything limited Dem gains.

[Mr.Phips]

Redistricting gave GOP member a safer district:

Keller (FL-8)
Shaw (FL-22)
Grucci (NY-1)
Kelly (NY-19)
Chabot (OH-1)
Sherwood (PA-10)

Redistricting gave GOP a less safe district:

Morella (MD-8)
Hayes (NC-8)

Redistricting gave GOP member a district with no major partisan change (or unknown--please correct otherwise):

Hayworth (AZ-5)
Pombo (CA-11)
Simmons (CT-2)
Shays (CT-4)
Johnson (CT-5), though in 2002 faced inc. vs. inc.
Crane (IL-8)
Hostettler (IN-8)
Nussle (IA-1)
Leach (IA-2)
Ryun (KS-2)
Northup (KY-3)
Knollenberg (MI-9)
Gutknecht (MN-1)
Bass (NH-2)
Sweeney (NY-20)
Taylor (NC-11)
English (PA-3)
Hart (PA-4)
Weldon (PA-7)
Bonilla (TX-23)? - originally safer, then less safe - not sure how final district compared to the 1990s
Goode (VA-5)

-------

Seems that GOP-dominated redistricting if anything limited Dem gains.

NY-01 was actually not changed at all(maybe a tiny bit) in 2001.  IN-08 was made slightly more Dem as was NC-11.  MI-09 was made marginally more GOP. 

[Brittain33]

Crane (IL-8)

Ironically, this district was made more Democratic in order to safeguard Mark Kirk. It might be more accurate to say it was made less safely Republican.

CT-5 was districted in a Republican-favoring way, but only marginally so.

KS-2 took in half of Lawrence, Kansas in order to weaken Dennis Moore.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Seems that GOP-dominated redistricting if anything limited Dem gains.

This doesn't quite tell the entire redistricting picture.  GOP-dominated redistricting benefits Republicans, of course.  The general problem with that redistricting is that Republicans over extended themselves, frequently trading 1 lock-safe seat for 2 GOP-lean seats. It gave Democrats more opportunities in a wave, just like Democratic redistricting benefitted Republicans in 1994.

It's understandable to want to maximize potential gain, which is part of why Republicans were successful in 2002 House races.  But maximizing gain tends to increase risk, and that's where the GOP ran into trouble in 2006, losing a lot of seats that they probably wouldn't had Democrats been in charge of drawing the lines (packing GOP voters into as few districts as possible).

Not that Democrats drawing the lines would have been good for Republicans in the long or even short term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Knollenberg's district was weakend IIRC. Hart's was made safer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please go.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Please go.

You should be more tolerant of those who have Aspergers!

Maybe, but what you said earlier—

—seems to contradict your later statement.

[Brittain33]

Knollenberg's district was weakend IIRC. Hart's was made safer.

Hart refused to have her district made safer because she thought she could parlay her strength among socially conservative Dems into statewide office. The legislature wanted to substantially redraw it. Perhaps it was made a little safer simply by the dissolution of PA-18/20?

[nclib]

Seems that GOP-dominated redistricting if anything limited Dem gains.

This doesn't quite tell the entire redistricting picture.  GOP-dominated redistricting benefits Republicans, of course.  The general problem with that redistricting is that Republicans over extended themselves, frequently trading 1 lock-safe seat for 2 GOP-lean seats. It gave Democrats more opportunities in a wave, just like Democratic redistricting benefitted Republicans in 1994.

It's understandable to want to maximize potential gain, which is part of why Republicans were successful in 2002 House races.  But maximizing gain tends to increase risk, and that's where the GOP ran into trouble in 2006, losing a lot of seats that they probably wouldn't had Democrats been in charge of drawing the lines (packing GOP voters into as few districts as possible).

Not that Democrats drawing the lines would have been good for Republicans in the long or even short term.

True, but I think you misread what you were quoting. I was saying that the fact that the GOP dominated redistricting resulted in the Dems having fewer gains than they would have had otherwise.

[Smash255]

Redistricting gave GOP member a safer district:

Keller (FL-8)
Shaw (FL-22)
Grucci (NY-1)
Kelly (NY-19)
Chabot (OH-1)
Sherwood (PA-10)

Redistricting gave GOP a less safe district:

Morella (MD-8)
Hayes (NC-8)

Redistricting gave GOP member a district with no major partisan change (or unknown--please correct otherwise):

Hayworth (AZ-5)
Pombo (CA-11)
Simmons (CT-2)
Shays (CT-4)
Johnson (CT-5), though in 2002 faced inc. vs. inc.
Crane (IL-8)
Hostettler (IN-8)
Nussle (IA-1)
Leach (IA-2)
Ryun (KS-2)
Northup (KY-3)
Knollenberg (MI-9)
Gutknecht (MN-1)
Bass (NH-2)
Sweeney (NY-20)
Taylor (NC-11)
English (PA-3)
Hart (PA-4)
Weldon (PA-7)
Bonilla (TX-23)? - originally safer, then less safe - not sure how final district compared to the 1990s
Goode (VA-5)

-------

Seems that GOP-dominated redistricting if anything limited Dem gains.

NY-01 was actually not changed at all(maybe a tiny bit) in 2001.  IN-08 was made slightly more Dem as was NC-11.  MI-09 was made marginally more GOP. 

You are correct about NY-1.  The district changed only very slightly and the difference had virtually no impact as the changes in registration  between March 02 (the last enrollment figures prior to redistricting) and November 02 in the district was almost exactly the same as the change in Suffolk County as a whole.

NY-01  GOP + 13.78 to GOP +13.39  (net change Dems +.3876)
Suffolk GOP +9.76 to GOP + 9.33 (net change Dems +.4224)

So the changes were pretty muvh as identical as it can get

FTR the advantage for the GOP in NY-01 as of 4/09 5.90 & in Suffolk as a whole it is 1.57

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MI-09 was made marginally more GOP. 

Knollenberg was the rep for MI-11 before redistricting. Old MI-9 included Flint (!)

[Mr.Phips]

I am trying to think of a few other districts where redistricting was supposed to move a district one way or another that Democrats are Republicans picked up.

Here are Democratic seats made more Republican that Republicans picked up:

FL-05(Karen Thurman)
TX-01(Sandlin)
TX-02(Lampson)
OH-03(Hall)

Democratic seats made more Democratic that Republicans picked up:

IN-02(Roemer, although Dems won it back)
IN-09(Hill, Dems won it back)

Other Republican seats made more Democratic that Dems picked up:

TN-04(Hillaery)
MD-02(Ehrlich)
GA-03(now GA-08), (Chambliss)

Other Republican seats made more Republican that Dems picked up:

CA-11(Pombo)
FL-16(Foley, GOP won it back)